Category Archives: Emissions

250 million coastal dwellers will face rising floods

Once again, researchers confirm that coastal dwellers can expect worse floods, more often and more expensively.

LONDON, 6 August, 2020 – In the next 80 years flooding around the planet’s land masses is likely to rise by almost 50%, endangering many millions of coastal dwellers.

If humans go on burning ever greater volumes of fossil fuels, while destroying ever more natural forest, then another 77 million people could be at risk of flooding, a rise of 52%.

And these floods – increasingly frequent and extending over greater areas – will put at risk cities, homes, resorts and industries valued at more than $14 trillion (£10.7tn).

This sum alone is worth 20% of global gross domestic product, the economist’s preferred indicator of economic health and wealth, according to a new study in the journal Scientific Reports.

The researchers built their argument on historic data from 681 tide-gauge stations around the world to model the growing hazard at 10,000 coastal locations.

“Compared with now, what we see as a one-in-100-year extreme flood event will be ten times more frequent because of climate change”

They conclude that the land area exposed to extreme flood will increase by more than 250,000 sq kms – an increase of 48% – to 800,000 sq kms, a threat to 252 million people.

“A warming climate is driving sea level rise because water expands as it warms, and glaciers are melting. Climate change is also increasing the frequency of extreme seas, which will further increase the risk of flooding,” said Ebru Kirezci of the University of Melbourne, Australia, who led the study.

“What the data and our model are saying is that compared with now, what we see as a one-in-100-year extreme flood event will be ten times more frequent because of climate change.”

None of this should come as a surprise to civic authorities, governments, hydraulic engineers and oceanographers: researchers have been warning for years that coastal floods driven by global heating will end up costing colossal and seemingly ever increasing sums.

On a global scale, and on regional examination, the story remains the same, and wealthy and developed societies in Europe and the US face the same rising tide of hazard as the world’s poorest in the crowded coastal cities of Africa and Asia.

Estimate too low?

A mix of more extreme storms and storm surges, combined with ever higher sea levels, will sweep away the world’s beaches and turn millions of comfortable US citizens into climate refugees.

It is even possible that researchers have under-estimated the hazard, simply because satellite-based measurements may have misread precise land elevation: in some cases, too, coasts are sinking independently of sea level rise.

The latest study identifies a series of flood “hotspots” around the world. These include south-eastern China, Australia’s Northern Territory, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Gujarat in India, the US states of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, and north-west Europe including the UK, northern France and northern Germany. The new map of risks takes no account of existing flood defences, but highlights the levels of threat to come.

“This is critical research from a policy point of view, because it provides politicians with a credible estimate of the risks and costs we are facing, and a basis for taking action,” said Ian Young, an engineer at the University of Melbourne, and a co-author.

“This data should act as a wake-up call to inform policy at global and local government levels so that more flood defences can be built to safeguard coastal life and infrastructure.” – Climate News Network

Once again, researchers confirm that coastal dwellers can expect worse floods, more often and more expensively.

LONDON, 6 August, 2020 – In the next 80 years flooding around the planet’s land masses is likely to rise by almost 50%, endangering many millions of coastal dwellers.

If humans go on burning ever greater volumes of fossil fuels, while destroying ever more natural forest, then another 77 million people could be at risk of flooding, a rise of 52%.

And these floods – increasingly frequent and extending over greater areas – will put at risk cities, homes, resorts and industries valued at more than $14 trillion (£10.7tn).

This sum alone is worth 20% of global gross domestic product, the economist’s preferred indicator of economic health and wealth, according to a new study in the journal Scientific Reports.

The researchers built their argument on historic data from 681 tide-gauge stations around the world to model the growing hazard at 10,000 coastal locations.

“Compared with now, what we see as a one-in-100-year extreme flood event will be ten times more frequent because of climate change”

They conclude that the land area exposed to extreme flood will increase by more than 250,000 sq kms – an increase of 48% – to 800,000 sq kms, a threat to 252 million people.

“A warming climate is driving sea level rise because water expands as it warms, and glaciers are melting. Climate change is also increasing the frequency of extreme seas, which will further increase the risk of flooding,” said Ebru Kirezci of the University of Melbourne, Australia, who led the study.

“What the data and our model are saying is that compared with now, what we see as a one-in-100-year extreme flood event will be ten times more frequent because of climate change.”

None of this should come as a surprise to civic authorities, governments, hydraulic engineers and oceanographers: researchers have been warning for years that coastal floods driven by global heating will end up costing colossal and seemingly ever increasing sums.

On a global scale, and on regional examination, the story remains the same, and wealthy and developed societies in Europe and the US face the same rising tide of hazard as the world’s poorest in the crowded coastal cities of Africa and Asia.

Estimate too low?

A mix of more extreme storms and storm surges, combined with ever higher sea levels, will sweep away the world’s beaches and turn millions of comfortable US citizens into climate refugees.

It is even possible that researchers have under-estimated the hazard, simply because satellite-based measurements may have misread precise land elevation: in some cases, too, coasts are sinking independently of sea level rise.

The latest study identifies a series of flood “hotspots” around the world. These include south-eastern China, Australia’s Northern Territory, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Gujarat in India, the US states of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, and north-west Europe including the UK, northern France and northern Germany. The new map of risks takes no account of existing flood defences, but highlights the levels of threat to come.

“This is critical research from a policy point of view, because it provides politicians with a credible estimate of the risks and costs we are facing, and a basis for taking action,” said Ian Young, an engineer at the University of Melbourne, and a co-author.

“This data should act as a wake-up call to inform policy at global and local government levels so that more flood defences can be built to safeguard coastal life and infrastructure.” – Climate News Network

Ireland’s Supreme Court damns climate policies

The country’s highest judicial authority, Ireland’s Supreme Court, says the government’s climate policies are not up to the job.

DUBLIN, 4 August, 2020 – In what’s being seen as a landmark judgement, Ireland’s Supreme Court has ruled that the Dublin government’s policies on climate change are inadequate, and has called for more action and clarity on the issue.

A unanimous verdict by the seven-judge Supreme Court said the government’s policies on climate change were “excessively vague and aspirational” and lacked clear plans and goals.

The judgement in the case, brought by the group Friends of the Irish Environment (FIE), is likely to have considerable impact elsewhere in Europe, with the courts being used to bring pressure for more decisive action on climate change.

Clodagh Daly, a spokesperson for FIE, said the judgement was a “groundbreaking and a landmark verdict” for climate action in Ireland, and across the world.

“It (the judgement) means the Irish government can no longer make promises that it cannot fulfil”, said Daly.

Inadequate detail

She said the ruling made clear that the government could not talk about long-term commitments on climate change without showing how these could be achieved. There was “no legal basis for a lack of political will” on the issue, said Daly.

In its case FIE argued that the Dublin government’s National Mitigation Plan, spanning the years 2017 to 2022, had failed to properly set out plans on how climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions will be substantially reduced over the coming years.

The court found that the government had not met its obligations under a 2015 Irish law on climate action and had not provided adequate detail of how it intended to achieve a transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050.

The government, said the judges, was required to give “some realistic level of detail” about how it will meet its carbon reduction targets: the 2017 National Mitigation Plan “falls a long way” short of providing the sort of specifics required on the issue.

They singled out the agricultural sector as one area lacking clear guidance on lowering carbon emissions.

“It means the Irish government can no longer make promises that it cannot fulfil”

Ireland’s agricultural industry is a mainstay of the economy, but it is also one of the primary sources of carbon emissions, in large part due to methane produced by the country’s seven million-strong cattle herd. Despite its green image, Ireland is, on a per capita basis, one of the leading polluters in Europe.

Observers say the Supreme Court judgement is a clear sign that governments can be held legally accountable for their action – or lack of action – on climate change.

Following a general election and extended political negotiations, Ireland’s Green Party is, for the first time, part of a coalition government.

Eamon Ryan, the Green Party leader and minister for climate action in the new government, said the Supreme Court ruling would act as a guard rail, keeping policy and political attention focused on climate issues.

Micheál Martin, Ireland’s Taoiseach or prime minister, said his government was giving the ruling serious and considered examination. – Climate News Network

The country’s highest judicial authority, Ireland’s Supreme Court, says the government’s climate policies are not up to the job.

DUBLIN, 4 August, 2020 – In what’s being seen as a landmark judgement, Ireland’s Supreme Court has ruled that the Dublin government’s policies on climate change are inadequate, and has called for more action and clarity on the issue.

A unanimous verdict by the seven-judge Supreme Court said the government’s policies on climate change were “excessively vague and aspirational” and lacked clear plans and goals.

The judgement in the case, brought by the group Friends of the Irish Environment (FIE), is likely to have considerable impact elsewhere in Europe, with the courts being used to bring pressure for more decisive action on climate change.

Clodagh Daly, a spokesperson for FIE, said the judgement was a “groundbreaking and a landmark verdict” for climate action in Ireland, and across the world.

“It (the judgement) means the Irish government can no longer make promises that it cannot fulfil”, said Daly.

Inadequate detail

She said the ruling made clear that the government could not talk about long-term commitments on climate change without showing how these could be achieved. There was “no legal basis for a lack of political will” on the issue, said Daly.

In its case FIE argued that the Dublin government’s National Mitigation Plan, spanning the years 2017 to 2022, had failed to properly set out plans on how climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions will be substantially reduced over the coming years.

The court found that the government had not met its obligations under a 2015 Irish law on climate action and had not provided adequate detail of how it intended to achieve a transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050.

The government, said the judges, was required to give “some realistic level of detail” about how it will meet its carbon reduction targets: the 2017 National Mitigation Plan “falls a long way” short of providing the sort of specifics required on the issue.

They singled out the agricultural sector as one area lacking clear guidance on lowering carbon emissions.

“It means the Irish government can no longer make promises that it cannot fulfil”

Ireland’s agricultural industry is a mainstay of the economy, but it is also one of the primary sources of carbon emissions, in large part due to methane produced by the country’s seven million-strong cattle herd. Despite its green image, Ireland is, on a per capita basis, one of the leading polluters in Europe.

Observers say the Supreme Court judgement is a clear sign that governments can be held legally accountable for their action – or lack of action – on climate change.

Following a general election and extended political negotiations, Ireland’s Green Party is, for the first time, part of a coalition government.

Eamon Ryan, the Green Party leader and minister for climate action in the new government, said the Supreme Court ruling would act as a guard rail, keeping policy and political attention focused on climate issues.

Micheál Martin, Ireland’s Taoiseach or prime minister, said his government was giving the ruling serious and considered examination. – Climate News Network

Bigger cars make bigger profits, but only for a few

Manufacturers who promote bigger cars earn more but harm efforts to cut carbon emissions and reduce unhealthy air.

LONDON, 3 August, 2020 − Increasing sales of more fuel-hungry and bigger cars are putting vital climate goals out of reach and causing many more deaths from pollution.

Although the trend to larger vehicles is most marked in the United Kingdom it is a global problem and one of the leading causes of increased carbon dioxide emissions, more damaging than both aviation and heavy industry. It also adds to poor air qality, which kills up to half a million people a year in Europe, and many more elsewhere.

The rise of so-called Chelsea Tractors, large, four-wheel drive vehicles used in towns and cities for ordinary domestic purposes, is being fuelled by manufacturers who make more profit from them than from smaller models.

These sports utility vehicles (SUVs), which are designed for off-road driving and so cause extra congestion in urban areas, now make up 40% of new cars sold in the UK. In 2019 this meant that over 150,000 new cars were sold which were too big to fit in a standard parking space.

To try to curb sales, two groups have launched a campaign aimed at securing a ban on advertising such vehicles. A thinktank, the New Weather Institute, and a climate charity, Possible, propose that advertising for the “dirtiest third” of new cars being sold − primarily SUVs − should be banned by law.

“There are adverts, and then there are badverts. Promoting the biggest, worst-emitting SUVs is like upselling pollution, and we need to stop”

They say in a report that the big car brands appear to be disproportionately promoting larger, more polluting SUVs because of the higher profit margins these vehicles provide.

The groups also make the point that tobacco advertising was banned when people grasped the damage smoking caused to public health, so the same standards should apply to harmful vehicles.

The report says the Land Rover company is among the worst offenders, with four models among the top ten vehicles for carbon dioxide emissions, selling altogether more than 60,000 cars in 2019. Other makers named are Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Jaguar. All except Jaguar also make the list for the longest vehicles, with Volvo and Ford also having models in this category.

Andrew Simms, co-director of the New Weather Institute, said: “We ended tobacco advertising when we understood the threat from smoking to public health.

Help for commuters

“Now that we know the human health and climate damage done by car pollution, it’s time to stop adverts making the problem worse. In a pandemic-prone world, people need clean air and more space on town and city streets.

“There are adverts, and then there are badverts. Promoting the biggest, worst-emitting SUVs is like upselling pollution, and we need to stop. In a climate emergency, when we need to make the places where we live more people-friendly, SUVs are in the way of progress.”

The report comes at a time when local authorities in the UK are creating wider pavements and new cycle lanes to allow commuters to maintain a safe distance apart and to get to work without using public transport.

It is also now clear that the air pollution caused by vehicles such as Chelsea Tractors may lead to increased deaths from Covid-19.

Robbie Gillett, campaigner at Possible, said: “Whilst millions of us are trying to reduce our carbon footprints to tackle the climate crisis, we have a multi-billion pound car and advertising industry aggressively marketing highly-polluting vehicles − many of which are literally too big for UK streets.

Space to breathe

“Their misleading ads promise us freedom and escape − but the reality of urban road conditions is grinding traffic jams, toxic air pollution and spiralling carbon emissions from road transport that will trash our climate goals. Let’s create space to breathe and space to think − free from the advertising pressures of big polluters.”

The government’s statutory advisors, the Committee on Climate Change, has recommended that by 2030 the sales of all new cars with internal combustion engines should be phased out.

With the precedent of the ban on tobacco advertising, Possible and the New Weather Institute are urging the government to introduce legislation to outlaw advertising for the dirtiest new cars sold in the UK, as well as advertising for any cars which are too large for a standard UK parking space.

They have launched a petition to raise support for the proposal, and have produced an online toolkit for activists and policymakers wanting to act against such advertising at local level, to stop adverts fuelling the climate emergency. − Climate News Network

Manufacturers who promote bigger cars earn more but harm efforts to cut carbon emissions and reduce unhealthy air.

LONDON, 3 August, 2020 − Increasing sales of more fuel-hungry and bigger cars are putting vital climate goals out of reach and causing many more deaths from pollution.

Although the trend to larger vehicles is most marked in the United Kingdom it is a global problem and one of the leading causes of increased carbon dioxide emissions, more damaging than both aviation and heavy industry. It also adds to poor air qality, which kills up to half a million people a year in Europe, and many more elsewhere.

The rise of so-called Chelsea Tractors, large, four-wheel drive vehicles used in towns and cities for ordinary domestic purposes, is being fuelled by manufacturers who make more profit from them than from smaller models.

These sports utility vehicles (SUVs), which are designed for off-road driving and so cause extra congestion in urban areas, now make up 40% of new cars sold in the UK. In 2019 this meant that over 150,000 new cars were sold which were too big to fit in a standard parking space.

To try to curb sales, two groups have launched a campaign aimed at securing a ban on advertising such vehicles. A thinktank, the New Weather Institute, and a climate charity, Possible, propose that advertising for the “dirtiest third” of new cars being sold − primarily SUVs − should be banned by law.

“There are adverts, and then there are badverts. Promoting the biggest, worst-emitting SUVs is like upselling pollution, and we need to stop”

They say in a report that the big car brands appear to be disproportionately promoting larger, more polluting SUVs because of the higher profit margins these vehicles provide.

The groups also make the point that tobacco advertising was banned when people grasped the damage smoking caused to public health, so the same standards should apply to harmful vehicles.

The report says the Land Rover company is among the worst offenders, with four models among the top ten vehicles for carbon dioxide emissions, selling altogether more than 60,000 cars in 2019. Other makers named are Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Jaguar. All except Jaguar also make the list for the longest vehicles, with Volvo and Ford also having models in this category.

Andrew Simms, co-director of the New Weather Institute, said: “We ended tobacco advertising when we understood the threat from smoking to public health.

Help for commuters

“Now that we know the human health and climate damage done by car pollution, it’s time to stop adverts making the problem worse. In a pandemic-prone world, people need clean air and more space on town and city streets.

“There are adverts, and then there are badverts. Promoting the biggest, worst-emitting SUVs is like upselling pollution, and we need to stop. In a climate emergency, when we need to make the places where we live more people-friendly, SUVs are in the way of progress.”

The report comes at a time when local authorities in the UK are creating wider pavements and new cycle lanes to allow commuters to maintain a safe distance apart and to get to work without using public transport.

It is also now clear that the air pollution caused by vehicles such as Chelsea Tractors may lead to increased deaths from Covid-19.

Robbie Gillett, campaigner at Possible, said: “Whilst millions of us are trying to reduce our carbon footprints to tackle the climate crisis, we have a multi-billion pound car and advertising industry aggressively marketing highly-polluting vehicles − many of which are literally too big for UK streets.

Space to breathe

“Their misleading ads promise us freedom and escape − but the reality of urban road conditions is grinding traffic jams, toxic air pollution and spiralling carbon emissions from road transport that will trash our climate goals. Let’s create space to breathe and space to think − free from the advertising pressures of big polluters.”

The government’s statutory advisors, the Committee on Climate Change, has recommended that by 2030 the sales of all new cars with internal combustion engines should be phased out.

With the precedent of the ban on tobacco advertising, Possible and the New Weather Institute are urging the government to introduce legislation to outlaw advertising for the dirtiest new cars sold in the UK, as well as advertising for any cars which are too large for a standard UK parking space.

They have launched a petition to raise support for the proposal, and have produced an online toolkit for activists and policymakers wanting to act against such advertising at local level, to stop adverts fuelling the climate emergency. − Climate News Network

Holidays at home can help to slow climate heating

Staycationing − spending holidays at home − can protect the planet by cutting the aircraft emissions which heat the Earth.

LONDON, 28 July, 2020 − In the northern hemisphere it’s now high summer, with high temperatures to match, traditionally time for those with enough leisure and money to take wing and head abroad − when they could happily just spend their holidays at home enjoying a staycation.

2020 is not proving a very good year for tradition, or for air travel, or for risking exposure to Covid-19. Instead, though, it may be the year when staycations really do catch on: holidays as near as possible to your own doorstep.

They can involve spending not a single night away from home, or travelling only short distances. Essentially they tend to mean no journeys by air, whether or not you cross an international frontier. And although staycationing can be ruinous for airlines, travel companies and others who depend on foreign visitors for a living, it does have its supporters.

Pandemics prompt change

The Rapid Transition Alliance (RTA) is a UK-based organisation which argues that humankind must undertake “widespread behaviour change to sustainable lifestyles … to live within planetary ecological boundaries and to limit global warming to below 1.5°C” (the more stringent limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change).

The Alliance says pandemics show how good governments are at responding fast and effectively, and at changing economic priorities in the public interest. And people, it says, can also change their daily habits very quickly.

It believes staycationing has lessons for the rapid behaviour change it urges:

  • The necessity of staycations as part of efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic has forced people to rethink how to take breaks and have fun nearer to home
  • Staycations provide a potentially valuable means of supporting local economies in the post-pandemic recovery period, especially in hard-hit industries such as entertainment, catering and hospitality
  • Staycations could support efforts to address the need to drastically cut emissions from aviation.

The Alliance reviews some of the arguments for and against staycationing in an online report, The Great Staycation. It acknowledges there’s a price to pay for the gains it wants to see.

Many countries dependent on tourism are caught in a double bind, the Alliance says. Opening their borders to visitors could help their economies, but it could also risk a life-threatening second wave of Covid-19.

“If the entire tourism industry is to become more sustainable, it needs to look closer to home for customers”

The scale of international tourism is impressive: up from 25 million visits in 1950 to over 1.4 billion today. In 2016 transport-related emissions from tourism represented 5% of all human-caused emissions. Until the pandemic hit, the demand for flights continued to grow globally by 5% each year.

Recent International Air Transport Association (IATA) predictions expect Covid-19 to create only a temporary dip in demand for flying in 2020, of 60-80%, with long-haul flights back to pre-Covid levels by 2024, under a business-as-usual scenario.

Even before Covid-19 there were signs of new holiday habits emerging, including a generational shift, with more than half of UK 25 to 34 year-olds planning to increase the number of holidays they take domestically, and around one third of all those already taking holidays in their own country planning to take more.

For holidaymakers who do venture abroad, coastal tourism has been the largest component of the global tourism industry, with more than 60% of Europeans choosing beach holidays. Sun and sand tourism have also provided more than 80% of US tourism income so far.

This has implications for their destinations. In the Caribbean, it’s estimated, a one metre sea level rise would result in the loss of or damage to 21 airports, inundation of land surrounding 35 ports, and at least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts being damaged or lost.

Reefs at risk

The Alliance says coastal regions and tropical islands are more likely to be affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change and threatened by rises in sea levels, with coastal systems especially sensitive to three key drivers related to climate change: sea level, ocean temperature and ocean acidity.

Over 100 countries benefit from the recreational value of their coral reefs, which are now increasingly under threat because of warming seas. Reefs contributed US$11.5bn to global tourism, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2014 report.

For tourists seeking winter breaks in the mountains − and for those who live there all year round − there may also be trouble ahead. Warmer weather probably means shorter winters in ski areas: across the US, in some places by more than 50% by 2050 and 80% by 2090, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates.

In California’s Lake Tahoe region warmer temperatures since 1970 have pushed the snow line uphill 1,200 to 1,500 feet. Some US ski destinations are investing in energy-efficient snow-making machinery to try to extend the season and still appeal to more environmentally conscious skiers.

Other resorts hope to keep going by packing more people into a shorter season, making skiing less exclusive and offering cheaper, dormitory accommodation.

Clean-up too slow

In Europe’s Alps, where half the glacial ice has already melted, the ski season has shrunk in recent years from 150 days to just 120. A study published two years ago in The Cryosphere predicted 70% less snow in the mountains by the end of the century, threatening a $30 billion ski industry.

Aviation accounted for about 7% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, but it is growing at a time when other emissions are falling and is projected to be the single biggest source of emissions in the UK by 2050.

The carbon intensity of flights is reducing by only 1% per year – far too slowly to balance the impact of growth rates, despite investment in lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft.

The UN’s World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) says Europe continues to be the leading global region for tourist numbers, welcoming 51% of all arrivals in 2019. If the entire tourism industry is to become more sustainable, the Alliance says, it needs to look closer to home for customers, and perhaps to its own advice on a creative response to the pandemic for new ways of enjoying leisure time. − Climate News Network

* * * * * * *

The Rapid Transition Alliance is coordinated by the New Weather Institute, the STEPS Centre at the Institute of  Development Studies, and the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, UK. The Climate News Network is partnering with and supported by the Rapid Transition Alliance, and will be reporting regularly on its work. If you would like to see more stories of evidence-based hope for rapid transition, please sign up here.

Do you know a story of rapid transition? If so, we’d like to hear from you. Please send us a brief outline on info@climatenewsnetwork.net. Thank you.

 

Staycationing − spending holidays at home − can protect the planet by cutting the aircraft emissions which heat the Earth.

LONDON, 28 July, 2020 − In the northern hemisphere it’s now high summer, with high temperatures to match, traditionally time for those with enough leisure and money to take wing and head abroad − when they could happily just spend their holidays at home enjoying a staycation.

2020 is not proving a very good year for tradition, or for air travel, or for risking exposure to Covid-19. Instead, though, it may be the year when staycations really do catch on: holidays as near as possible to your own doorstep.

They can involve spending not a single night away from home, or travelling only short distances. Essentially they tend to mean no journeys by air, whether or not you cross an international frontier. And although staycationing can be ruinous for airlines, travel companies and others who depend on foreign visitors for a living, it does have its supporters.

Pandemics prompt change

The Rapid Transition Alliance (RTA) is a UK-based organisation which argues that humankind must undertake “widespread behaviour change to sustainable lifestyles … to live within planetary ecological boundaries and to limit global warming to below 1.5°C” (the more stringent limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change).

The Alliance says pandemics show how good governments are at responding fast and effectively, and at changing economic priorities in the public interest. And people, it says, can also change their daily habits very quickly.

It believes staycationing has lessons for the rapid behaviour change it urges:

  • The necessity of staycations as part of efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic has forced people to rethink how to take breaks and have fun nearer to home
  • Staycations provide a potentially valuable means of supporting local economies in the post-pandemic recovery period, especially in hard-hit industries such as entertainment, catering and hospitality
  • Staycations could support efforts to address the need to drastically cut emissions from aviation.

The Alliance reviews some of the arguments for and against staycationing in an online report, The Great Staycation. It acknowledges there’s a price to pay for the gains it wants to see.

Many countries dependent on tourism are caught in a double bind, the Alliance says. Opening their borders to visitors could help their economies, but it could also risk a life-threatening second wave of Covid-19.

“If the entire tourism industry is to become more sustainable, it needs to look closer to home for customers”

The scale of international tourism is impressive: up from 25 million visits in 1950 to over 1.4 billion today. In 2016 transport-related emissions from tourism represented 5% of all human-caused emissions. Until the pandemic hit, the demand for flights continued to grow globally by 5% each year.

Recent International Air Transport Association (IATA) predictions expect Covid-19 to create only a temporary dip in demand for flying in 2020, of 60-80%, with long-haul flights back to pre-Covid levels by 2024, under a business-as-usual scenario.

Even before Covid-19 there were signs of new holiday habits emerging, including a generational shift, with more than half of UK 25 to 34 year-olds planning to increase the number of holidays they take domestically, and around one third of all those already taking holidays in their own country planning to take more.

For holidaymakers who do venture abroad, coastal tourism has been the largest component of the global tourism industry, with more than 60% of Europeans choosing beach holidays. Sun and sand tourism have also provided more than 80% of US tourism income so far.

This has implications for their destinations. In the Caribbean, it’s estimated, a one metre sea level rise would result in the loss of or damage to 21 airports, inundation of land surrounding 35 ports, and at least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts being damaged or lost.

Reefs at risk

The Alliance says coastal regions and tropical islands are more likely to be affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change and threatened by rises in sea levels, with coastal systems especially sensitive to three key drivers related to climate change: sea level, ocean temperature and ocean acidity.

Over 100 countries benefit from the recreational value of their coral reefs, which are now increasingly under threat because of warming seas. Reefs contributed US$11.5bn to global tourism, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2014 report.

For tourists seeking winter breaks in the mountains − and for those who live there all year round − there may also be trouble ahead. Warmer weather probably means shorter winters in ski areas: across the US, in some places by more than 50% by 2050 and 80% by 2090, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates.

In California’s Lake Tahoe region warmer temperatures since 1970 have pushed the snow line uphill 1,200 to 1,500 feet. Some US ski destinations are investing in energy-efficient snow-making machinery to try to extend the season and still appeal to more environmentally conscious skiers.

Other resorts hope to keep going by packing more people into a shorter season, making skiing less exclusive and offering cheaper, dormitory accommodation.

Clean-up too slow

In Europe’s Alps, where half the glacial ice has already melted, the ski season has shrunk in recent years from 150 days to just 120. A study published two years ago in The Cryosphere predicted 70% less snow in the mountains by the end of the century, threatening a $30 billion ski industry.

Aviation accounted for about 7% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, but it is growing at a time when other emissions are falling and is projected to be the single biggest source of emissions in the UK by 2050.

The carbon intensity of flights is reducing by only 1% per year – far too slowly to balance the impact of growth rates, despite investment in lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft.

The UN’s World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) says Europe continues to be the leading global region for tourist numbers, welcoming 51% of all arrivals in 2019. If the entire tourism industry is to become more sustainable, the Alliance says, it needs to look closer to home for customers, and perhaps to its own advice on a creative response to the pandemic for new ways of enjoying leisure time. − Climate News Network

* * * * * * *

The Rapid Transition Alliance is coordinated by the New Weather Institute, the STEPS Centre at the Institute of  Development Studies, and the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, UK. The Climate News Network is partnering with and supported by the Rapid Transition Alliance, and will be reporting regularly on its work. If you would like to see more stories of evidence-based hope for rapid transition, please sign up here.

Do you know a story of rapid transition? If so, we’d like to hear from you. Please send us a brief outline on info@climatenewsnetwork.net. Thank you.

 

Rising heat affects Europe’s floods and droughts

Patterns of Europe’s floods and droughts are starting to change: each could be more extreme, and far likelier with rising heat.

LONDON, 27 July, 2020 − Climate change has begun to affect the pattern of Europe’s floods. The past three decades have seen “exceptional” flooding, say Austrian scientists who have worked their way through documentary records for the last 500 years.

At the same time, heat and drought affecting the continent are on the increase. The summer of 2018 broke all records for Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and by 2019 many trees in Europe’s forests were partly or entirely dead. And by 2085 rainfall could decline by a fifth, Swiss ecologists report, to alter the make-up of the forests dramatically.

Both findings are consistent with the big picture of climate change worldwide: wet seasons will become ever wetter; dry seasons too will become more extreme, according to US researchers in a third separate study.

All attempts to establish climate records involve careful interrogation of the past. Günter Blöschl of Vienna’s University of Technology and colleagues report in Nature that they sifted evidence from mountain lake beds, floodplains and 500 years of contemporary documents to identify decades more than usually rich in floods.

The floods of 1990 to 2016 in Western and Central Europe have been among the worst in history. To make sure of such a claim, the researchers identified periods of calamitous inundation across the whole region in the late 16th century and again in the 17th; and in the 18th and early 19th centuries.

“We should be preparing for the future by improving the technology to efficiently use water for crops”

If these episodes had anything in common, bygone floods happened when air temperatures were lower: fewer of them, too, happened in the summer.

“This finding seems to contradict the observation that, in some areas such as in the northwest of Europe, the recent warmer climate is aligned with larger floods,” Professor Blöschl said. “Our study shows for the first time that the underlying mechanisms have changed.

“While in the past floods have occurred more frequently under colder conditions, the opposite is the case now. The hydrological conditions of the present are very different from those in the past.”

Now, 55% of Central European floods happen in the summer, compared with 41% in previous centuries. It’s a message for planners, city chiefs and governments across the region: flood management is going to have to adapt.

So, too, is forest and woodland management, say scientists in Switzerland and Germany, who have been measuring changes in the canopies of their forests.

Growing vulnerability

For most of Europe, the single most extreme heatwave has been that of 2003: that is, until 2018. The sustained heat and aridity made temperatures in the growing season of 2018 on average 1.2°C higher than 2003, and 3.3°C higher than the average from 1961-1990.

Woodland foliage showed signs of drought stress. Leaves wilted, aged and dropped much earlier, and by 2019 many trees were dead, or partly dead. Those that survived were more vulnerable to beetle or fungal pests. Losses included beech, long considered the most drought-resistant.

Ten out of the 12 hottest growing seasons in the last 120 years have all happened this century. Climate forecasts already predict more of the same, with precipitation falling by a fifth by 2085. Foresters will have to think again about woodland design.

“Spruce was most heavily affected. But it was a surprise for us that beech, silver fir and pine were also damaged to this extent,” said Ansgar Kahmen of the University of Basel in Switzerland.

“We still need to study which tree species are good in which combinations, including from a forestry perspective. That will take time.”

Keeping Paris promise

And worldwide, farmers, foresters and water managers can also expect more of the same. As temperatures rise worldwide, dry seasons will tend to become drier, and wet seasons wetter.

US researchers report in the journal Nature Communications that they divided the world into nine land regions, and looked at annual rain or snowfall and how this fluctuated through the seasons in each of the nine from 1971 to 2000. They then looked at future temperature predictions for the rest of the century to see what happened to water availability.

The best outcome for relatively stable water supplies would be if nations could act to limit the planet’s average global temperature rise to no more than 2°C by 2100, in line with a promise made by 195 governments in Paris in 2015.

At higher temperatures the predicted scatter of flood and drought became more extreme. Once again, the message is: start planning. “We need to take precautions to optimally use how much water we have,” said Ashok Mishra of Clemson University in South Carolina.

“As the climate changes and population increases, we should be preparing for the future by improving the technology to efficiently use water for crops.” − Climate News Network

Patterns of Europe’s floods and droughts are starting to change: each could be more extreme, and far likelier with rising heat.

LONDON, 27 July, 2020 − Climate change has begun to affect the pattern of Europe’s floods. The past three decades have seen “exceptional” flooding, say Austrian scientists who have worked their way through documentary records for the last 500 years.

At the same time, heat and drought affecting the continent are on the increase. The summer of 2018 broke all records for Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and by 2019 many trees in Europe’s forests were partly or entirely dead. And by 2085 rainfall could decline by a fifth, Swiss ecologists report, to alter the make-up of the forests dramatically.

Both findings are consistent with the big picture of climate change worldwide: wet seasons will become ever wetter; dry seasons too will become more extreme, according to US researchers in a third separate study.

All attempts to establish climate records involve careful interrogation of the past. Günter Blöschl of Vienna’s University of Technology and colleagues report in Nature that they sifted evidence from mountain lake beds, floodplains and 500 years of contemporary documents to identify decades more than usually rich in floods.

The floods of 1990 to 2016 in Western and Central Europe have been among the worst in history. To make sure of such a claim, the researchers identified periods of calamitous inundation across the whole region in the late 16th century and again in the 17th; and in the 18th and early 19th centuries.

“We should be preparing for the future by improving the technology to efficiently use water for crops”

If these episodes had anything in common, bygone floods happened when air temperatures were lower: fewer of them, too, happened in the summer.

“This finding seems to contradict the observation that, in some areas such as in the northwest of Europe, the recent warmer climate is aligned with larger floods,” Professor Blöschl said. “Our study shows for the first time that the underlying mechanisms have changed.

“While in the past floods have occurred more frequently under colder conditions, the opposite is the case now. The hydrological conditions of the present are very different from those in the past.”

Now, 55% of Central European floods happen in the summer, compared with 41% in previous centuries. It’s a message for planners, city chiefs and governments across the region: flood management is going to have to adapt.

So, too, is forest and woodland management, say scientists in Switzerland and Germany, who have been measuring changes in the canopies of their forests.

Growing vulnerability

For most of Europe, the single most extreme heatwave has been that of 2003: that is, until 2018. The sustained heat and aridity made temperatures in the growing season of 2018 on average 1.2°C higher than 2003, and 3.3°C higher than the average from 1961-1990.

Woodland foliage showed signs of drought stress. Leaves wilted, aged and dropped much earlier, and by 2019 many trees were dead, or partly dead. Those that survived were more vulnerable to beetle or fungal pests. Losses included beech, long considered the most drought-resistant.

Ten out of the 12 hottest growing seasons in the last 120 years have all happened this century. Climate forecasts already predict more of the same, with precipitation falling by a fifth by 2085. Foresters will have to think again about woodland design.

“Spruce was most heavily affected. But it was a surprise for us that beech, silver fir and pine were also damaged to this extent,” said Ansgar Kahmen of the University of Basel in Switzerland.

“We still need to study which tree species are good in which combinations, including from a forestry perspective. That will take time.”

Keeping Paris promise

And worldwide, farmers, foresters and water managers can also expect more of the same. As temperatures rise worldwide, dry seasons will tend to become drier, and wet seasons wetter.

US researchers report in the journal Nature Communications that they divided the world into nine land regions, and looked at annual rain or snowfall and how this fluctuated through the seasons in each of the nine from 1971 to 2000. They then looked at future temperature predictions for the rest of the century to see what happened to water availability.

The best outcome for relatively stable water supplies would be if nations could act to limit the planet’s average global temperature rise to no more than 2°C by 2100, in line with a promise made by 195 governments in Paris in 2015.

At higher temperatures the predicted scatter of flood and drought became more extreme. Once again, the message is: start planning. “We need to take precautions to optimally use how much water we have,” said Ashok Mishra of Clemson University in South Carolina.

“As the climate changes and population increases, we should be preparing for the future by improving the technology to efficiently use water for crops.” − Climate News Network

Human climate change causes Arctic’s record heat

The coldest place in the Arctic has experienced record heat. Climate change has made this 600 times more probable.

LONDON, 23 July, 2020 – An international team of scientists has pinned the strange weather and record heat in the Siberian Arctic firmly on human-induced climate change.

On average, from January to June, temperatures in the region have been 5°C hotter because the world’s cities have continued to consume ever-increasing levels of fossil fuels.

The researchers report that, without human help, such freak conditions could happen only once every 80,000 years or so. But a steady increase in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere for the last century or more has increased the chances of record temperatures – one Arctic Circle settlement, Verkhoyansk, normally one of the coldest places on Earth, recorded 38°C on 20 June – by a factor of 600.

“The findings of this rapid research – that climate change increased the chances of prolonged heat in Siberia by at least 600 times – are truly staggering,” said Andrew Ciavarella, of the UK Met Office, who led the study.

“This research is further evidence of the extreme temperatures we can expect to see more frequently around the world in a warming global climate. Importantly, an increasing frequency of these extreme heat events can be moderated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Confidence grows

That climate change has come to the Arctic is not news: what is significant about the research by British, French, Swiss, Dutch, German and Russian meteorologists is the readiness to put the blame fairly on climate change, even for a freak event.

It has always been a given in the science that the mix of air pressure and temperatures around the world delivers a random pattern of change marked by extremes, and for decades scientists backed away from blaming any single flood, windstorm or heat wave as evidence of climate change. That has, in the last few years, changed.

Research teams have successively warned that climate change driven by human action had contributed to California’s most recent disastrous drought; that both calamitous floods and catastrophic bushfires in Australia were made more probable and more intense by rising greenhouse gas emissions; and that the signature of climate change driven by fossil fuel combustion was now detectable in daily weather changes almost anywhere around the globe.

But the signature of climate change in the Siberian Arctic has been pronounced, and the latest attribution study is confirmation of a new confidence in the data.

“The findings of this rapid research – that climate change increased the chances of prolonged heat in Siberia by at least 600 times – are truly staggering”

In June, forest fires in Siberia consumed 1.15 million hectares and released about 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide: this is more than the annual emissions from Switzerland or Norway.

The rising temperatures in the region have been grounds for extra alarm: permafrost in the Arctic Circle is a store of carbon that is increasingly being released as the ground thaws, to make Arctic warming even worse.

But the hazards of permafrost thaw are also direct: soils become more vulnerable to slip and slump, and there is already measurable damage to the infrastructure once supported by sediments and topsoils that used to be frozen solid all year round.

The region recorded one of the world’s worst oil spills in May, when an oil tank collapsed. The unseasonal and improbable heat has been coupled to an explosion of silk moths, bringing further caterpillar damage to conifer forests.

Even now such temperatures remain unlikely: the human component of climate change has simply reduced the frequency of such sustained temperatures to perhaps once every 135 years.

Little time left

But without rapid and drastic cuts worldwide in greenhouse gas emissions, towns like Verkhoyansk – which also shares the record for the coldest temperature in the northern hemisphere – could become a lot warmer, a lot more often before the century’s end.

“These results show that we are starting to experience extreme events which have almost no chance of happening without a human footprint on the climate system,” said Sonia Seneviratne, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, known as ETH Zurich.

“We have little time left to stabilise global warming at levels at which climate change would lie within the bounds of the Paris Agreement.

“For a stabilisation at 1.5°C of global warming, which would still imply risks of such extreme heat events, we need to reduce our CO2 emissions by at least half until 2030.” – Climate News Network

The coldest place in the Arctic has experienced record heat. Climate change has made this 600 times more probable.

LONDON, 23 July, 2020 – An international team of scientists has pinned the strange weather and record heat in the Siberian Arctic firmly on human-induced climate change.

On average, from January to June, temperatures in the region have been 5°C hotter because the world’s cities have continued to consume ever-increasing levels of fossil fuels.

The researchers report that, without human help, such freak conditions could happen only once every 80,000 years or so. But a steady increase in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere for the last century or more has increased the chances of record temperatures – one Arctic Circle settlement, Verkhoyansk, normally one of the coldest places on Earth, recorded 38°C on 20 June – by a factor of 600.

“The findings of this rapid research – that climate change increased the chances of prolonged heat in Siberia by at least 600 times – are truly staggering,” said Andrew Ciavarella, of the UK Met Office, who led the study.

“This research is further evidence of the extreme temperatures we can expect to see more frequently around the world in a warming global climate. Importantly, an increasing frequency of these extreme heat events can be moderated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Confidence grows

That climate change has come to the Arctic is not news: what is significant about the research by British, French, Swiss, Dutch, German and Russian meteorologists is the readiness to put the blame fairly on climate change, even for a freak event.

It has always been a given in the science that the mix of air pressure and temperatures around the world delivers a random pattern of change marked by extremes, and for decades scientists backed away from blaming any single flood, windstorm or heat wave as evidence of climate change. That has, in the last few years, changed.

Research teams have successively warned that climate change driven by human action had contributed to California’s most recent disastrous drought; that both calamitous floods and catastrophic bushfires in Australia were made more probable and more intense by rising greenhouse gas emissions; and that the signature of climate change driven by fossil fuel combustion was now detectable in daily weather changes almost anywhere around the globe.

But the signature of climate change in the Siberian Arctic has been pronounced, and the latest attribution study is confirmation of a new confidence in the data.

“The findings of this rapid research – that climate change increased the chances of prolonged heat in Siberia by at least 600 times – are truly staggering”

In June, forest fires in Siberia consumed 1.15 million hectares and released about 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide: this is more than the annual emissions from Switzerland or Norway.

The rising temperatures in the region have been grounds for extra alarm: permafrost in the Arctic Circle is a store of carbon that is increasingly being released as the ground thaws, to make Arctic warming even worse.

But the hazards of permafrost thaw are also direct: soils become more vulnerable to slip and slump, and there is already measurable damage to the infrastructure once supported by sediments and topsoils that used to be frozen solid all year round.

The region recorded one of the world’s worst oil spills in May, when an oil tank collapsed. The unseasonal and improbable heat has been coupled to an explosion of silk moths, bringing further caterpillar damage to conifer forests.

Even now such temperatures remain unlikely: the human component of climate change has simply reduced the frequency of such sustained temperatures to perhaps once every 135 years.

Little time left

But without rapid and drastic cuts worldwide in greenhouse gas emissions, towns like Verkhoyansk – which also shares the record for the coldest temperature in the northern hemisphere – could become a lot warmer, a lot more often before the century’s end.

“These results show that we are starting to experience extreme events which have almost no chance of happening without a human footprint on the climate system,” said Sonia Seneviratne, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, known as ETH Zurich.

“We have little time left to stabilise global warming at levels at which climate change would lie within the bounds of the Paris Agreement.

“For a stabilisation at 1.5°C of global warming, which would still imply risks of such extreme heat events, we need to reduce our CO2 emissions by at least half until 2030.” – Climate News Network

How stored electricity can make cleaner fuels

EU industry is seeking ways to save surplus power. Now it’s also hunting for methods to use that stored electricity to make green fuels.

LONDON, 21 July, 2020 – With renewable energy now the cheapest way of mass-producing electricity, the race is on to find the best way to conserve the surplus for use at peak times, and also to use the stored electricity to develop new fuels for transport.

And European Union companies are competing to devise lucrative ways to use this cheap power just as more solar and wind energy is being produced than the market demands.

Large batteries are currently the favoured method, because they are already cost-effective when used with pumped storage. This uses cheap electricity to move water uphill into reservoirs, to be released later to drive turbines when extra electricity is needed to meet peak demand.

Both these technologies take advantage of buying power at rock-bottom prices, and make their profits by storing it – until they can sell it back at much higher prices when the peak arrives.

The newer technologies under development seek to use the cheap surplus electricity to create so-called green hydrogen, and now green ammonia – both for use as substitutes for fossil fuels.

“A second method of hydrogen production, which avoids carbon emissions altogether, is attracting worldwide interest”

The hydrogen can be used in cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ultimately, optimists believe, in aircraft. Ammonia, it’s hoped, can power ships. Both ideas aim to cut out fossil fuels entirely.

Most hydrogen for fuel and industrial purposes is currently being produced from natural gas, a fossil fuel, and is called blue (or sometimes brown) hydrogen. Environmentalists do not regard it as much of an advantage in combatting climate change, because it’s derived from methane, even though when it’s burned the hydrogen produces only water.

However, a second method of hydrogen production, which also uses cheap renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, avoids carbon emissions altogether, and is attracting worldwide interest.

Costs come down as the volume of production increases, so if green hydrogen can be supplied on an industrial scale it is hoped it can out-compete both blue hydrogen and fossil fuels for transport.

European experiments

New Energy Update, a renewable energy newsletter published by Reuters, reports that European companies are scrambling to use cheap surplus electricity from wind power to take advantage of a growing market for green hydrogen.

Offshore wind operators are combining with airports, airlines and transport groups to develop a renewable hydrogen electrolyser in Copenhagen by 2027.

The Belgian port of Ostend has another project with different partners, but also using surplus offshore wind power to make cheap green hydrogen.

The oil giant Shell, anxious to diversify away from the failing fossil fuel industry, has also found industrial partners to combine offshore wind production with electrolysis facilities.

On this evidence green hydrogen is close to viable commercial exploitation, whereas the potential for ammonia is still being explored, even though it has some possible advantages as a cleaner shipping fuel.

Ammonia’s promise

This is principally because there is already a global transport system in place for ammonia because of its use in fertilisers – although this ammonia is produced using fossil fuels.

Unlike hydrogen, ammonia does not need to be stored at very low temperatures or in high-pressure tanks. It could be used in liquid form in ships and would provide enough energy for long voyages – in a similar way to fuel oil. It can also be used in normal engines without complex on-board processing, or in fuel cells without hydrogen’s potential high risks.

But as the Environmental Defense Fund points out in a report into the technology, the surplus renewable energy needs to be very cheap to have a chance of making it cost-competitive.

However, with the global shipping industry committed to cutting its global greenhouse emissions in half by 2050, compared with 2008 levels, the report makes it clear that ammonia seems currently the most promising technology to achieve that. – Climate News Network

EU industry is seeking ways to save surplus power. Now it’s also hunting for methods to use that stored electricity to make green fuels.

LONDON, 21 July, 2020 – With renewable energy now the cheapest way of mass-producing electricity, the race is on to find the best way to conserve the surplus for use at peak times, and also to use the stored electricity to develop new fuels for transport.

And European Union companies are competing to devise lucrative ways to use this cheap power just as more solar and wind energy is being produced than the market demands.

Large batteries are currently the favoured method, because they are already cost-effective when used with pumped storage. This uses cheap electricity to move water uphill into reservoirs, to be released later to drive turbines when extra electricity is needed to meet peak demand.

Both these technologies take advantage of buying power at rock-bottom prices, and make their profits by storing it – until they can sell it back at much higher prices when the peak arrives.

The newer technologies under development seek to use the cheap surplus electricity to create so-called green hydrogen, and now green ammonia – both for use as substitutes for fossil fuels.

“A second method of hydrogen production, which avoids carbon emissions altogether, is attracting worldwide interest”

The hydrogen can be used in cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ultimately, optimists believe, in aircraft. Ammonia, it’s hoped, can power ships. Both ideas aim to cut out fossil fuels entirely.

Most hydrogen for fuel and industrial purposes is currently being produced from natural gas, a fossil fuel, and is called blue (or sometimes brown) hydrogen. Environmentalists do not regard it as much of an advantage in combatting climate change, because it’s derived from methane, even though when it’s burned the hydrogen produces only water.

However, a second method of hydrogen production, which also uses cheap renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, avoids carbon emissions altogether, and is attracting worldwide interest.

Costs come down as the volume of production increases, so if green hydrogen can be supplied on an industrial scale it is hoped it can out-compete both blue hydrogen and fossil fuels for transport.

European experiments

New Energy Update, a renewable energy newsletter published by Reuters, reports that European companies are scrambling to use cheap surplus electricity from wind power to take advantage of a growing market for green hydrogen.

Offshore wind operators are combining with airports, airlines and transport groups to develop a renewable hydrogen electrolyser in Copenhagen by 2027.

The Belgian port of Ostend has another project with different partners, but also using surplus offshore wind power to make cheap green hydrogen.

The oil giant Shell, anxious to diversify away from the failing fossil fuel industry, has also found industrial partners to combine offshore wind production with electrolysis facilities.

On this evidence green hydrogen is close to viable commercial exploitation, whereas the potential for ammonia is still being explored, even though it has some possible advantages as a cleaner shipping fuel.

Ammonia’s promise

This is principally because there is already a global transport system in place for ammonia because of its use in fertilisers – although this ammonia is produced using fossil fuels.

Unlike hydrogen, ammonia does not need to be stored at very low temperatures or in high-pressure tanks. It could be used in liquid form in ships and would provide enough energy for long voyages – in a similar way to fuel oil. It can also be used in normal engines without complex on-board processing, or in fuel cells without hydrogen’s potential high risks.

But as the Environmental Defense Fund points out in a report into the technology, the surplus renewable energy needs to be very cheap to have a chance of making it cost-competitive.

However, with the global shipping industry committed to cutting its global greenhouse emissions in half by 2050, compared with 2008 levels, the report makes it clear that ammonia seems currently the most promising technology to achieve that. – Climate News Network

South Korea backtracks on green promise

For South Korea, it seems, climate care is a case of going green at home – and doing the opposite overseas.

LONDON, 17 July, 2020 – After a landslide victory in South Korea’s national elections earlier this year, President Moon Jae-in and his Democratic Party of Korea announced a major plan to tackle climate change.

A package, known as the Green New Deal, aimed to transform what is one of the world’s most dynamic economies: emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases would be sharply reduced over coming years and totally eliminated by 2050.

There were also promises of big public investments in renewable energy and a commitment to phase out state support for overseas coal projects. Coal is by far the most polluting of fossil fuels.

Moon Jae-in’s administration is now backtracking on many of its green promises.

Environmental groups are particularly concerned by an announcement late last month that South Korea’s largest state-owned electricity company – along with state banks – is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in a coal-fired power plant in Indonesia.

More to come

The Indonesian project – called Java 9 &10 – is at the giant Suralaya plant at Cilegon, near Jakarta.

Under the terms of an agreement reached between the South Korean and Indonesian state authorities, the Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) will invest US$51 million (£40m) in adding two power units to the Cilegon plant.

In addition, South Korea’s state banks will make further investments amounting to more than $1billion, while Kepco will offer loan guarantees.

The Cilegon project is highly controversial: the plant is already one of the main sources of pollution in the densely populated area surrounding Jakarta.

Energy analysts and opponents of the project say that the additional power the plant will provide is not needed. They say enlarging the plant not only runs counter to South Korea government policy but also conflicts with the Indonesian government’s policies on tackling climate change: Jakarta recently announced ambitious plans to dramatically increase the use of solar power.

“By not ending public coal financing, Korea’s Green New Deal would not be green at all”

“Kepco’s decision to continue the Java 9 &10 project in the midst of a pandemic has shown the true face of the South Korean government and proves it is concerned with short-term profits rather than humans and the environment”, said Didit Haryo Wicaksono of Greenpeace Indonesia.

Elsewhere in the region, Kepco is involved in discussions on a multi-million dollar expansion of the coal-fired Vung Tau power plant in Vietnam.

Kepco shareholders have voiced concerns about both the Indonesia and Vietnam projects, saying that worries about pollution might lead to the loss of millions invested.

South Korea is not alone in touting green policies at home while seeking to make money from polluting projects overseas.

China is making efforts to clean up its once notorious urban pollution hot spots. It is the world’s biggest producer and also consumer of coal: many coal-fired enterprises have been shut down or converted to other energy sources.

Green deal undermined?

Yet China continues to promote coal-fired projects overseas. It is building and financing several coal-fired power plants in Pakistan and in the Balkans, as well as supporting the expansion of coal projects in various African countries. Japan is another large financier of overseas coal projects.

South Korea is among the world’s top ten emitters of greenhouse gases,  much of the pollution caused by emissions from coal-fired power plants, which generate more than 40% of the country’s electricity.

Under the terms of Seoul’s new green deal it’s planned to phase out the use of coal by 2030. In the aftermath of the Indonesia coal plant deal, there are doubts that South Korea will put a halt to its overseas coal projects.

Jessica Yun of the South Korea climate group Solutions For Our Climate,  quoted in the Eco-Business journal, says that if the government refuses to stop financing coal projects, the whole green deal will be undermined. “By not ending public coal financing, Korea’s Green New Deal would not be green at all”, Yun said.

“That would just push dirty air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions abroad – the height of hypocrisy and irresponsibility.” – Climate News Network

For South Korea, it seems, climate care is a case of going green at home – and doing the opposite overseas.

LONDON, 17 July, 2020 – After a landslide victory in South Korea’s national elections earlier this year, President Moon Jae-in and his Democratic Party of Korea announced a major plan to tackle climate change.

A package, known as the Green New Deal, aimed to transform what is one of the world’s most dynamic economies: emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases would be sharply reduced over coming years and totally eliminated by 2050.

There were also promises of big public investments in renewable energy and a commitment to phase out state support for overseas coal projects. Coal is by far the most polluting of fossil fuels.

Moon Jae-in’s administration is now backtracking on many of its green promises.

Environmental groups are particularly concerned by an announcement late last month that South Korea’s largest state-owned electricity company – along with state banks – is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in a coal-fired power plant in Indonesia.

More to come

The Indonesian project – called Java 9 &10 – is at the giant Suralaya plant at Cilegon, near Jakarta.

Under the terms of an agreement reached between the South Korean and Indonesian state authorities, the Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) will invest US$51 million (£40m) in adding two power units to the Cilegon plant.

In addition, South Korea’s state banks will make further investments amounting to more than $1billion, while Kepco will offer loan guarantees.

The Cilegon project is highly controversial: the plant is already one of the main sources of pollution in the densely populated area surrounding Jakarta.

Energy analysts and opponents of the project say that the additional power the plant will provide is not needed. They say enlarging the plant not only runs counter to South Korea government policy but also conflicts with the Indonesian government’s policies on tackling climate change: Jakarta recently announced ambitious plans to dramatically increase the use of solar power.

“By not ending public coal financing, Korea’s Green New Deal would not be green at all”

“Kepco’s decision to continue the Java 9 &10 project in the midst of a pandemic has shown the true face of the South Korean government and proves it is concerned with short-term profits rather than humans and the environment”, said Didit Haryo Wicaksono of Greenpeace Indonesia.

Elsewhere in the region, Kepco is involved in discussions on a multi-million dollar expansion of the coal-fired Vung Tau power plant in Vietnam.

Kepco shareholders have voiced concerns about both the Indonesia and Vietnam projects, saying that worries about pollution might lead to the loss of millions invested.

South Korea is not alone in touting green policies at home while seeking to make money from polluting projects overseas.

China is making efforts to clean up its once notorious urban pollution hot spots. It is the world’s biggest producer and also consumer of coal: many coal-fired enterprises have been shut down or converted to other energy sources.

Green deal undermined?

Yet China continues to promote coal-fired projects overseas. It is building and financing several coal-fired power plants in Pakistan and in the Balkans, as well as supporting the expansion of coal projects in various African countries. Japan is another large financier of overseas coal projects.

South Korea is among the world’s top ten emitters of greenhouse gases,  much of the pollution caused by emissions from coal-fired power plants, which generate more than 40% of the country’s electricity.

Under the terms of Seoul’s new green deal it’s planned to phase out the use of coal by 2030. In the aftermath of the Indonesia coal plant deal, there are doubts that South Korea will put a halt to its overseas coal projects.

Jessica Yun of the South Korea climate group Solutions For Our Climate,  quoted in the Eco-Business journal, says that if the government refuses to stop financing coal projects, the whole green deal will be undermined. “By not ending public coal financing, Korea’s Green New Deal would not be green at all”, Yun said.

“That would just push dirty air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions abroad – the height of hypocrisy and irresponsibility.” – Climate News Network

UK premier faces court over Covid-19 recovery

Boris Johnson, the UK premier, may face a humiliating day in court over his plans to save the country’s economy from the Covid-19 crisis.



LONDON, 10 July, 2020 − The UK premier, Boris Johnson, risks a summons to court in a challenge to his government’s Covid-19 recovery plans to extricate the United Kingdom economy from the emergency.

The climate litigation charity, Plan B, which recently blocked the expansion of London’s Heathrow airport through the courts, is now threatening the government with legal action over its Covid plans, saying they ignore the scientific and economic advice to move to a sustainable economy.

The charity says the challenge is intended to oblige the government to tell the truth. It says continuing to treat the climate emergency as a competing priority to Covid recovery would be “a treasonous betrayal.”

Plan B describes the official recovery plans as “a new deal for polluters”, which would lock the UK into a disastrous trajectory towards a world with average temperatures 4˚C hotter than historic levels, implying the loss of billions of human lives.

In 2016 the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC), an independent body set up to advise Parliament on progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change, issued a warning. It said in a report that year that there would be “at least a small chance of 4°C or more of warming by 2100.”

Prudence forgotten

By 2019 the CCC was arguing more urgently to prepare for the worst, but with scant sign that the government was listening.

It said: “It is prudent to plan adaptation strategies for a scenario of 4°C, but there is little evidence of adaptation planning for even 2°C. Government cannot hide from these risks.”

The consequences of a 4°C rise could be devastating for the natural world. For humans they would be at least as bad. Plan B says in its letter to the prime minister and his colleagues that those on the frontline would include marginalised communities, younger people and those in the Global South.

Pursuing its present course, the charity says, would breach the government’s legal obligations to implement a net-zero policy on carbon emissions, and to uphold the Paris Agreement on climate change (which enshrined a maximum warming limit of 2°C while hoping for 1.5°C) and the right to life.

On 5 June this year the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, published in the Guardian an opinion piece, co-written with his predecessor Mark Carney and counterparts from France and Holland, which concluded: “We have a choice: rebuild the old economy, locking in temperature increases of 4˚C with extreme climate disruption; or build back better, preserving our planet for generations to come.”

“There will be no second chance … this reckless government is on the verge of completing its betrayal of the people of this country”

On 30 June Mr Johnson dismissed environmental protections as  “a massive drag on the productivity and prosperity of this country”.

The following day Andrew Bailey wrote: “The Bank’s lending to companies as part of the emergency response to Covid-19 has not incorporated a test based on climate considerations. This was deliberate, because in such a grave emergency affecting this country we have focused on the immediate priority of supporting the jobs and livelihoods of the people of this country…”

Tim Crosland, formerly the head of cyber, prevention and information law at the UK’s National Crime Agency, is the director of Plan B. He says: “It’s vital that people understand the significance of what’s happening.

“There will be no second chance … this reckless government is on the verge of completing its betrayal of the people of this country.”

Dr Jason Hickel, an economic anthropologist at Goldsmiths, University of London, says the UK’s obligations under the Paris Agreement require the government to aim to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2030.

Moving swiftly

This is possible, but analysts say it can be done only if the post-Covid recovery process is calibrated to stay in line with this objective, or at least with the government’s own legally-binding 2050 target.

Plan B’s first step has been to send an informal “Letter before Action” to the government. If it does not receive a satisfactory response soon, it says, it will issue a formal letter giving the recipients a chance to correct any misunderstandings, or to reveal a change of direction, and so avoid the process of litigation.

This formal action would be a claim for judicial review, perhaps for example focusing on the role of the Bank of England. No later than by early August, Plan B would expect to have received a reply.

Tim Crosland told the Climate News Network: “Unless we see a fundamental change of approach from the government, which puts the transition to a sustainable economy at the centre of the recovery, this is likely to proceed to court.”

Once the charity has received the response to its formal letter it will file its claim with the High Court, where a judge will decide whether it can go to a full hearing. If that is refused, Plan B will have the right to appeal.

Truth required

The deadline is close. Plan B’s letter to the government ends: “If we do not hear from you by 17 July, with a clear explanation of how your Covid recovery programme will support the net-zero target and the Paris Agreement, we will have no option but to commence legal action.”

The UK is due to host the next annual UN climate conference, COP-26,  (postponed from this year until November 2021) in the Scottish city of Glasgow. A court clash on the grounds specified by Plan B would leave the government risking deep humiliation there.

In February 2020 the Court of Appeal found unanimously in favour of Plan B’s challenge to the government’s intention to build a third runway at Heathrow, setting a precedent with global implications.

Crosland said: “The Heathrow case … was about much more than the third  runway. Fundamentally it was about the obligation of the government to tell the truth.

“It can’t keep telling us it’s committed to the Paris Agreement temperature limit, if its actions say the opposite.” − Climate News Network

Boris Johnson, the UK premier, may face a humiliating day in court over his plans to save the country’s economy from the Covid-19 crisis.



LONDON, 10 July, 2020 − The UK premier, Boris Johnson, risks a summons to court in a challenge to his government’s Covid-19 recovery plans to extricate the United Kingdom economy from the emergency.

The climate litigation charity, Plan B, which recently blocked the expansion of London’s Heathrow airport through the courts, is now threatening the government with legal action over its Covid plans, saying they ignore the scientific and economic advice to move to a sustainable economy.

The charity says the challenge is intended to oblige the government to tell the truth. It says continuing to treat the climate emergency as a competing priority to Covid recovery would be “a treasonous betrayal.”

Plan B describes the official recovery plans as “a new deal for polluters”, which would lock the UK into a disastrous trajectory towards a world with average temperatures 4˚C hotter than historic levels, implying the loss of billions of human lives.

In 2016 the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC), an independent body set up to advise Parliament on progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change, issued a warning. It said in a report that year that there would be “at least a small chance of 4°C or more of warming by 2100.”

Prudence forgotten

By 2019 the CCC was arguing more urgently to prepare for the worst, but with scant sign that the government was listening.

It said: “It is prudent to plan adaptation strategies for a scenario of 4°C, but there is little evidence of adaptation planning for even 2°C. Government cannot hide from these risks.”

The consequences of a 4°C rise could be devastating for the natural world. For humans they would be at least as bad. Plan B says in its letter to the prime minister and his colleagues that those on the frontline would include marginalised communities, younger people and those in the Global South.

Pursuing its present course, the charity says, would breach the government’s legal obligations to implement a net-zero policy on carbon emissions, and to uphold the Paris Agreement on climate change (which enshrined a maximum warming limit of 2°C while hoping for 1.5°C) and the right to life.

On 5 June this year the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, published in the Guardian an opinion piece, co-written with his predecessor Mark Carney and counterparts from France and Holland, which concluded: “We have a choice: rebuild the old economy, locking in temperature increases of 4˚C with extreme climate disruption; or build back better, preserving our planet for generations to come.”

“There will be no second chance … this reckless government is on the verge of completing its betrayal of the people of this country”

On 30 June Mr Johnson dismissed environmental protections as  “a massive drag on the productivity and prosperity of this country”.

The following day Andrew Bailey wrote: “The Bank’s lending to companies as part of the emergency response to Covid-19 has not incorporated a test based on climate considerations. This was deliberate, because in such a grave emergency affecting this country we have focused on the immediate priority of supporting the jobs and livelihoods of the people of this country…”

Tim Crosland, formerly the head of cyber, prevention and information law at the UK’s National Crime Agency, is the director of Plan B. He says: “It’s vital that people understand the significance of what’s happening.

“There will be no second chance … this reckless government is on the verge of completing its betrayal of the people of this country.”

Dr Jason Hickel, an economic anthropologist at Goldsmiths, University of London, says the UK’s obligations under the Paris Agreement require the government to aim to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2030.

Moving swiftly

This is possible, but analysts say it can be done only if the post-Covid recovery process is calibrated to stay in line with this objective, or at least with the government’s own legally-binding 2050 target.

Plan B’s first step has been to send an informal “Letter before Action” to the government. If it does not receive a satisfactory response soon, it says, it will issue a formal letter giving the recipients a chance to correct any misunderstandings, or to reveal a change of direction, and so avoid the process of litigation.

This formal action would be a claim for judicial review, perhaps for example focusing on the role of the Bank of England. No later than by early August, Plan B would expect to have received a reply.

Tim Crosland told the Climate News Network: “Unless we see a fundamental change of approach from the government, which puts the transition to a sustainable economy at the centre of the recovery, this is likely to proceed to court.”

Once the charity has received the response to its formal letter it will file its claim with the High Court, where a judge will decide whether it can go to a full hearing. If that is refused, Plan B will have the right to appeal.

Truth required

The deadline is close. Plan B’s letter to the government ends: “If we do not hear from you by 17 July, with a clear explanation of how your Covid recovery programme will support the net-zero target and the Paris Agreement, we will have no option but to commence legal action.”

The UK is due to host the next annual UN climate conference, COP-26,  (postponed from this year until November 2021) in the Scottish city of Glasgow. A court clash on the grounds specified by Plan B would leave the government risking deep humiliation there.

In February 2020 the Court of Appeal found unanimously in favour of Plan B’s challenge to the government’s intention to build a third runway at Heathrow, setting a precedent with global implications.

Crosland said: “The Heathrow case … was about much more than the third  runway. Fundamentally it was about the obligation of the government to tell the truth.

“It can’t keep telling us it’s committed to the Paris Agreement temperature limit, if its actions say the opposite.” − Climate News Network

Earth cooled naturally long before human heating

Once again the past shows the role of greenhouse gases in climate change. It also confirms human heating as the main cause of global warmth.

LONDON, 8 July, 2020 – A new reconstruction of the history of global temperatures for the last 12,000 years supports an argument often put forward by climate sceptics: that global climate is subject to natural cycles driven by astronomical forces and planet Earth might be in one, with human heating not responsible.

It is. But the latest finding offers no evidence for scepticism. For the last 6,500 years the global mean surface of the planet has slowly and  naturally been getting cooler, as lower levels of summer sunlight hit the northern hemisphere.

And this gradual cooling came to a sudden end only in the 19th century as human cities and industries switched increasingly to coal, and then to oil and gas, to return ever-higher levels of ancient carbon to the atmosphere.

The rate of natural cooling would be imperceptible in any human lifespan: less than 0.1°C per thousand years.

This slow, subtle lowering of the temperature began 4,500 years before the beginning of the Christian era, in a Neolithic world of perhaps only 40 million people, at a time when Chinese villagers began to grow rice on terraces along the Yellow River and civilisation began to flourish in the Tigris-Euphrates valley.

“This past decade was likely cooler than what the average temperatures will be for the rest of this century and beyond”

This was a time when the first agricultural and pastoral settlements spread across Europe, along with the first pottery; when the Sahara was still grassland, and when most of Europe spoke just one language, now called Proto-Indo-European.

Researchers from the US and Europe report in the journal Scientific Data that they used the most comprehensive collection of palaeo-climatic evidence – 1,319 data sets based on tree rings, fossil pollen samples, ice cores and so on, collected from 679 sites worldwide – to establish that this must have been, for humans in prehistory, the moment of what they call “peak warmth.” From then on, the thermometer began to drop, at an average of 0.08C per millennium.

“The rate of cooling that followed the peak warmth was subtle, only around 0.01°C per 1,000 years. This cooling seems to be driven by slow cycles in the Earth’s orbit, which reduced the amount of summer sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere, culminating in the Little Ice Age of recent centuries,” said Michael Erb of Northern Arizona University.

More than a century of observation has shown that tiny cyclic changes in the Earth’s elliptical orbit can explain some of the patterns of climate change in the past, and confirm the lengths of the more recent Ice Ages, and the role of other planets in these periodic shifts.

Big picture unchanged

It is an article of faith among geologists that the present is key to the past, and the rocks and fossils preserve enduring evidence of the ups and downs of global temperatures.

It is now four years since European scientists proposed that climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels might have begun to delay the next Ice Age.

So the latest look at more recent data doesn’t change the big picture. In the last 100 or more years, global temperatures have risen by at least 1°C, and the average temperature of the last decade has been the warmest for 12,000 years, thanks to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as a consequence of human action.

“On the other hand, this past decade was likely cooler than what the average temperatures will be for the rest of this century and beyond, which are very likely to continue to exceed 1°C above pre-industrial temperatures,” said Nicholas McKay, one of the authors from Flagstaff, Arizona.

And his colleague Darrell Kaufman, who led the study, said: “It’s possible that the last time the sustained average global temperature was 1°C above the 19th century was prior to the last Ice Age, back around 125,000 years ago when sea level was around 20 feet (6 metres) higher than today.” – Climate News Network

Once again the past shows the role of greenhouse gases in climate change. It also confirms human heating as the main cause of global warmth.

LONDON, 8 July, 2020 – A new reconstruction of the history of global temperatures for the last 12,000 years supports an argument often put forward by climate sceptics: that global climate is subject to natural cycles driven by astronomical forces and planet Earth might be in one, with human heating not responsible.

It is. But the latest finding offers no evidence for scepticism. For the last 6,500 years the global mean surface of the planet has slowly and  naturally been getting cooler, as lower levels of summer sunlight hit the northern hemisphere.

And this gradual cooling came to a sudden end only in the 19th century as human cities and industries switched increasingly to coal, and then to oil and gas, to return ever-higher levels of ancient carbon to the atmosphere.

The rate of natural cooling would be imperceptible in any human lifespan: less than 0.1°C per thousand years.

This slow, subtle lowering of the temperature began 4,500 years before the beginning of the Christian era, in a Neolithic world of perhaps only 40 million people, at a time when Chinese villagers began to grow rice on terraces along the Yellow River and civilisation began to flourish in the Tigris-Euphrates valley.

“This past decade was likely cooler than what the average temperatures will be for the rest of this century and beyond”

This was a time when the first agricultural and pastoral settlements spread across Europe, along with the first pottery; when the Sahara was still grassland, and when most of Europe spoke just one language, now called Proto-Indo-European.

Researchers from the US and Europe report in the journal Scientific Data that they used the most comprehensive collection of palaeo-climatic evidence – 1,319 data sets based on tree rings, fossil pollen samples, ice cores and so on, collected from 679 sites worldwide – to establish that this must have been, for humans in prehistory, the moment of what they call “peak warmth.” From then on, the thermometer began to drop, at an average of 0.08C per millennium.

“The rate of cooling that followed the peak warmth was subtle, only around 0.01°C per 1,000 years. This cooling seems to be driven by slow cycles in the Earth’s orbit, which reduced the amount of summer sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere, culminating in the Little Ice Age of recent centuries,” said Michael Erb of Northern Arizona University.

More than a century of observation has shown that tiny cyclic changes in the Earth’s elliptical orbit can explain some of the patterns of climate change in the past, and confirm the lengths of the more recent Ice Ages, and the role of other planets in these periodic shifts.

Big picture unchanged

It is an article of faith among geologists that the present is key to the past, and the rocks and fossils preserve enduring evidence of the ups and downs of global temperatures.

It is now four years since European scientists proposed that climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels might have begun to delay the next Ice Age.

So the latest look at more recent data doesn’t change the big picture. In the last 100 or more years, global temperatures have risen by at least 1°C, and the average temperature of the last decade has been the warmest for 12,000 years, thanks to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as a consequence of human action.

“On the other hand, this past decade was likely cooler than what the average temperatures will be for the rest of this century and beyond, which are very likely to continue to exceed 1°C above pre-industrial temperatures,” said Nicholas McKay, one of the authors from Flagstaff, Arizona.

And his colleague Darrell Kaufman, who led the study, said: “It’s possible that the last time the sustained average global temperature was 1°C above the 19th century was prior to the last Ice Age, back around 125,000 years ago when sea level was around 20 feet (6 metres) higher than today.” – Climate News Network