Tag Archives: Flooding

Weakened hurricanes may be wind farm bonus

When high winds meet tall sails in the right place, something’s got to give. Offshore wind farms may lead to weakened hurricanes.

LONDON, 23 October, 2018 − US scientists have identified yet another wonder of that icon of renewable energy, the offshore wind farm: they may result in weakened hurricanes. Turbines in the right place could not just take the heat out of a hurricane, they could reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding as well.

The prediction is based entirely on computer simulation: the US so far has just one 30MW commercial wind farm in operation with just five turbines, off the coast of Rhode Island.

But the reasoning begins from the basic laws of physics, and the answer delivers yet another argument for investment in renewable sources of energy, if only because the ferocity and destructive power of US hurricanes is set to increase with ever-greater emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, and consequent ever-greater global warming.

Cristina Archer, a scientist at the University of Delaware, has already studied the ideal placing of wind turbines to extract maximum energy from the world’s winds, and more recently confirmed, with other researchers, that any hurricane that blew over a big enough marine wind farm would shed energy and hit the land with less destructive power.

“If you have arrays of wind turbines in the areas where there are hurricanes, you will likely see a reduction in precipitation inland”

It is an axiom of physics that energy is always conserved: if a turbine’s sails generate electrical energy from wind, then some of the kinetic energy of the wind must be surrendered.

Professor Archer and her colleagues report in the journal Environmental Research Letters that they took, among others, the case of Hurricane Harvey, which in 2017 deposited almost two thirds of a metre of rainwater on Houston, Texas, to cause devastating floods. They tested the behaviour of the simulated hurricane as it blew across a hypothetical barrier of from zero to 74,619 turbines.

When strong winds hit the turbines, they slow down. Wind scientists call this convergence. Winds slow, and are more likely to dump the water they hold, and then rise. Then the winds speed up again, a phenomenon known as divergence.

“Divergence is the opposite effect. It causes a downward motion, attracting air coming down, which is drier, and suppresses precipitation. I was wondering what would also happen when there is an offshore farm”, she said.

Multiple simulations

The researchers modelled a range of simulations with hypothetical wind farms staggered along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Hypothetical hurricanes caught up in a pattern of convergence would drop their rain before they hit the coast, and then begin divergence, which would mean that even less rain would be carried to landfall.

“By the time the air reaches the land, it’s been squeezed out of a lot of moisture,” Professor Archer said. “We got a 30% reduction of the precipitation with Harvey simulations. That means, potentially, if you have arrays of wind turbines in the areas where there are hurricanes, you will likely see a reduction in precipitation inland if the farm is there.”

This doesn’t mean that wind farms can always take the heat out of a hurricane: important factors include the hurricane’s precise track and the distance offshore of the turbines. There are no wind farms anywhere in the world with the tens of thousands of turbines modelled in the simulation: one of the world’s biggest, off Anholt Island, Denmark, has only 111 turbines.

“The more windfarms you have, the more impact they will have on a hurricane,” Professor Archer said. “By the time a hurricane actually makes a landfall, these arrays of turbines have been operating for days and days, extracting energy and moisture out of the storm. As a result, the storm will be weaker. Literally.” − Climate News Network

When high winds meet tall sails in the right place, something’s got to give. Offshore wind farms may lead to weakened hurricanes.

LONDON, 23 October, 2018 − US scientists have identified yet another wonder of that icon of renewable energy, the offshore wind farm: they may result in weakened hurricanes. Turbines in the right place could not just take the heat out of a hurricane, they could reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding as well.

The prediction is based entirely on computer simulation: the US so far has just one 30MW commercial wind farm in operation with just five turbines, off the coast of Rhode Island.

But the reasoning begins from the basic laws of physics, and the answer delivers yet another argument for investment in renewable sources of energy, if only because the ferocity and destructive power of US hurricanes is set to increase with ever-greater emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, and consequent ever-greater global warming.

Cristina Archer, a scientist at the University of Delaware, has already studied the ideal placing of wind turbines to extract maximum energy from the world’s winds, and more recently confirmed, with other researchers, that any hurricane that blew over a big enough marine wind farm would shed energy and hit the land with less destructive power.

“If you have arrays of wind turbines in the areas where there are hurricanes, you will likely see a reduction in precipitation inland”

It is an axiom of physics that energy is always conserved: if a turbine’s sails generate electrical energy from wind, then some of the kinetic energy of the wind must be surrendered.

Professor Archer and her colleagues report in the journal Environmental Research Letters that they took, among others, the case of Hurricane Harvey, which in 2017 deposited almost two thirds of a metre of rainwater on Houston, Texas, to cause devastating floods. They tested the behaviour of the simulated hurricane as it blew across a hypothetical barrier of from zero to 74,619 turbines.

When strong winds hit the turbines, they slow down. Wind scientists call this convergence. Winds slow, and are more likely to dump the water they hold, and then rise. Then the winds speed up again, a phenomenon known as divergence.

“Divergence is the opposite effect. It causes a downward motion, attracting air coming down, which is drier, and suppresses precipitation. I was wondering what would also happen when there is an offshore farm”, she said.

Multiple simulations

The researchers modelled a range of simulations with hypothetical wind farms staggered along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Hypothetical hurricanes caught up in a pattern of convergence would drop their rain before they hit the coast, and then begin divergence, which would mean that even less rain would be carried to landfall.

“By the time the air reaches the land, it’s been squeezed out of a lot of moisture,” Professor Archer said. “We got a 30% reduction of the precipitation with Harvey simulations. That means, potentially, if you have arrays of wind turbines in the areas where there are hurricanes, you will likely see a reduction in precipitation inland if the farm is there.”

This doesn’t mean that wind farms can always take the heat out of a hurricane: important factors include the hurricane’s precise track and the distance offshore of the turbines. There are no wind farms anywhere in the world with the tens of thousands of turbines modelled in the simulation: one of the world’s biggest, off Anholt Island, Denmark, has only 111 turbines.

“The more windfarms you have, the more impact they will have on a hurricane,” Professor Archer said. “By the time a hurricane actually makes a landfall, these arrays of turbines have been operating for days and days, extracting energy and moisture out of the storm. As a result, the storm will be weaker. Literally.” − Climate News Network

Warmer climate means US faces big losses

Greenhouse gas emissions impose a social cost – in ecosystem damage, in climate extremes, in human health and wealth. The US faces big losses.

LONDON, 3 October, 2018 – Of the nations that stand to be most seriously affected by climate change, perhaps surprisingly, near the top of the list, the US faces big losses.

American and European scientists have taken a fresh look at what they call the social cost of carbon (SCC): that is, the damage that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion will do to world economies. And whichever way they make the country-by-country comparisons, one nation is among the world leaders in self-harm – the USA.

It is not alone: India, a rapidly-growing economy, and Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s wealthiest, join the US in the top three. China, which is now the world’s highest carbon dioxide emitter, is in the top five.

Calculations about the future economic costs of something that has yet to happen in a fast-changing world are of the kind that induce migraine, and always incorporate a wide range of possible outcomes.

The US Environmental Protection Agency has proposed that by 2020, the global costs of an additional tonne of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could range from $12 to $62. But a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that these costs could be much higher, at approximately $180 to $800 per tonne.

“It’s surprising just how consistently the US is one of the biggest losers, even when compared to other large economies”

And the price to be paid by the US alone could be $50 per tonne. Since the US – which under President Trump has announced its intention to withdraw from a 2015 global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions – now emits almost five billion tonnes of CO2 a year, this could be costing the US economy about $250bn.

“We all know carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels affects people and ecosystems around the world, today and in the future; however, these impacts are not included in market prices, creating an environmental externality whereby consumers of fossil fuel energy do not pay for and are unaware of the true costs of their consumption,” said Katharine Ricke of the University of San Diego, who led the study.

President Trump once dismissed global warming and climate change driven by profligate fossil fuel use as a “hoax” devised by the Chinese. But US climate research – often from US government agencies such as NASA and the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration – has consistently warned of the potentially devastating future costs to the US.

Coastal flooding could create a new class of climate refugee within the US. Hurricanes will gain in ferocity and potential devastation. Forest fires are already on the increase.

The famously arid drylands of the US west have begun to march eastwards, and the extremes of heat and drought linked to a rise in global average warming are almost certain to cause harvest losses, all as a consequence of fossil fuel emissions. Clean energy policies, conversely, could cut air pollution and save American lives.

Assumptions reversed

The San Diego research reverses some long-standing assumptions, one of which is that while strong, rich economies benefit from fossil fuel use, the developing nations pay the highest price in the social costs of carbon, or SCCs.

The new calculations suggest much more uneven outcomes: the European Union, for instance, is likely to be less harmed by increased emissions, even though it is one of the world leaders in the attempt to combat climate change.

“Our analysis demonstrates that the argument that the primary beneficiaries of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would be other countries is a total myth,” said Dr Ricke.

“We consistently find, through hundreds of uncertainty scenarios, that the US always has one of the highest country-level SCCs. It makes a lot of sense because the larger your economy is, the more you have to lose.

“Still, it’s surprising just how consistently the US is one of the biggest losers, even when compared to other large economies.” – Climate News Network

Greenhouse gas emissions impose a social cost – in ecosystem damage, in climate extremes, in human health and wealth. The US faces big losses.

LONDON, 3 October, 2018 – Of the nations that stand to be most seriously affected by climate change, perhaps surprisingly, near the top of the list, the US faces big losses.

American and European scientists have taken a fresh look at what they call the social cost of carbon (SCC): that is, the damage that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion will do to world economies. And whichever way they make the country-by-country comparisons, one nation is among the world leaders in self-harm – the USA.

It is not alone: India, a rapidly-growing economy, and Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s wealthiest, join the US in the top three. China, which is now the world’s highest carbon dioxide emitter, is in the top five.

Calculations about the future economic costs of something that has yet to happen in a fast-changing world are of the kind that induce migraine, and always incorporate a wide range of possible outcomes.

The US Environmental Protection Agency has proposed that by 2020, the global costs of an additional tonne of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could range from $12 to $62. But a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that these costs could be much higher, at approximately $180 to $800 per tonne.

“It’s surprising just how consistently the US is one of the biggest losers, even when compared to other large economies”

And the price to be paid by the US alone could be $50 per tonne. Since the US – which under President Trump has announced its intention to withdraw from a 2015 global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions – now emits almost five billion tonnes of CO2 a year, this could be costing the US economy about $250bn.

“We all know carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels affects people and ecosystems around the world, today and in the future; however, these impacts are not included in market prices, creating an environmental externality whereby consumers of fossil fuel energy do not pay for and are unaware of the true costs of their consumption,” said Katharine Ricke of the University of San Diego, who led the study.

President Trump once dismissed global warming and climate change driven by profligate fossil fuel use as a “hoax” devised by the Chinese. But US climate research – often from US government agencies such as NASA and the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration – has consistently warned of the potentially devastating future costs to the US.

Coastal flooding could create a new class of climate refugee within the US. Hurricanes will gain in ferocity and potential devastation. Forest fires are already on the increase.

The famously arid drylands of the US west have begun to march eastwards, and the extremes of heat and drought linked to a rise in global average warming are almost certain to cause harvest losses, all as a consequence of fossil fuel emissions. Clean energy policies, conversely, could cut air pollution and save American lives.

Assumptions reversed

The San Diego research reverses some long-standing assumptions, one of which is that while strong, rich economies benefit from fossil fuel use, the developing nations pay the highest price in the social costs of carbon, or SCCs.

The new calculations suggest much more uneven outcomes: the European Union, for instance, is likely to be less harmed by increased emissions, even though it is one of the world leaders in the attempt to combat climate change.

“Our analysis demonstrates that the argument that the primary beneficiaries of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would be other countries is a total myth,” said Dr Ricke.

“We consistently find, through hundreds of uncertainty scenarios, that the US always has one of the highest country-level SCCs. It makes a lot of sense because the larger your economy is, the more you have to lose.

“Still, it’s surprising just how consistently the US is one of the biggest losers, even when compared to other large economies.” – Climate News Network

Landslides are growing risk to poorest

Waterlogged hillsides are dangerous. For those who live on them, or further downhill, they can be deadly. The global risk from landslides is rising.

LONDON, 3 September, 2018 – Lethal landslides are on the increase. Between 2004 and 2016, sudden cascades of rock, rubble and mud have claimed at least 50,000 lives. And fatal slips down unstable hillside slopes have steadily increased this century, according to new research.

British geographers report in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences that they had amassed a database of 4,800 fatal landslides since 2004 and found that at least 700 of them had what they call a direct human fingerprint: they happened because people built on unstable soils, they mined, legally and illegally, they cut into hillsides, and they allowed pipes to leak.

In addition, heavy rainfall, earthquakes, explosions, dam collapses and freezing and thawing also set the earth moving at ever greater speeds, with deadly consequences.

The researchers also report that they found that other catalogues of natural disaster consistently under-estimated the toll exacted by landslides.

“It was surprising to find clear trends within the database that fatal landslides … were increasing globally during the period of 2004 to 2016”

One study found that the International Disaster Database, maintained by the international disaster community, under-estimated the number of fatal landslides by between 1400% and 2000%, often because the death tolls from such events were lumped in with other forms of disaster that might precipitate landslip: among them volcanic eruption, earthquake and flooding.

“We were aware that humans are placing increasing pressure on their local environment, but it was surprising to find clear trends within the database that fatal landslides triggered by construction, illegal hill-cutting and illegal mining were increasing globally during the period of 2004 to 2016,” said Melanie Froude, of the University of Sheffield, who led the study.

All the countries in the premier league for fatal landslides were in Asia: one in five of these happened in India, but Pakistan, Myanmar and the Philippines also suffered increasing losses.

Poorest in the shadows

Such findings are no surprise. First, there are more people on the planet, looking for new places to live and new ways of making a living, and the poorest are always more likely to be forced to the margins, to live on or in the shadow of dangerous, unstable slopes.

Second, the world is warming: for every extra degree Celsius the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7%, so more rain is likely to fall with ever greater intensity to saturate more soil and dislodge more rock. The researchers found that 79% of all landslides could be linked to rainfall.

And, with greater warming, there is a greater hazard of devastating superstorms, along with hurricanes and tropical cyclones that deliver the conditions for catastrophic floods not just in Asia but in Europe and the US.

Paradoxically, extremes of heat and drought can also create dangerous slopes: dangerous wild fires can remove the tree cover that stops hillsides from slipping, and drive people from their homes to places that could later be just as hazardous.

Applying knowledge

Research like this is never just academic: the point of such studies is to draw attention to natural disasters that need never have happened, and identify the communities most at risk.

And these, the scientists say, are more frequently in poor countries, with the poorest of all disproportionately at risk. The point the scientists make is that there is nothing inevitable about a “natural” disaster. Human error, heedlessness and ignorance all contribute to loss, suffering and death.

“With appropriate regulation to guide engineering design, education and enforcement by regulation by specialist inspectors, landslides triggered by construction, mining and hill-cutting are entirely preventable,” Dr Froude said. – Climate News Network

Waterlogged hillsides are dangerous. For those who live on them, or further downhill, they can be deadly. The global risk from landslides is rising.

LONDON, 3 September, 2018 – Lethal landslides are on the increase. Between 2004 and 2016, sudden cascades of rock, rubble and mud have claimed at least 50,000 lives. And fatal slips down unstable hillside slopes have steadily increased this century, according to new research.

British geographers report in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences that they had amassed a database of 4,800 fatal landslides since 2004 and found that at least 700 of them had what they call a direct human fingerprint: they happened because people built on unstable soils, they mined, legally and illegally, they cut into hillsides, and they allowed pipes to leak.

In addition, heavy rainfall, earthquakes, explosions, dam collapses and freezing and thawing also set the earth moving at ever greater speeds, with deadly consequences.

The researchers also report that they found that other catalogues of natural disaster consistently under-estimated the toll exacted by landslides.

“It was surprising to find clear trends within the database that fatal landslides … were increasing globally during the period of 2004 to 2016”

One study found that the International Disaster Database, maintained by the international disaster community, under-estimated the number of fatal landslides by between 1400% and 2000%, often because the death tolls from such events were lumped in with other forms of disaster that might precipitate landslip: among them volcanic eruption, earthquake and flooding.

“We were aware that humans are placing increasing pressure on their local environment, but it was surprising to find clear trends within the database that fatal landslides triggered by construction, illegal hill-cutting and illegal mining were increasing globally during the period of 2004 to 2016,” said Melanie Froude, of the University of Sheffield, who led the study.

All the countries in the premier league for fatal landslides were in Asia: one in five of these happened in India, but Pakistan, Myanmar and the Philippines also suffered increasing losses.

Poorest in the shadows

Such findings are no surprise. First, there are more people on the planet, looking for new places to live and new ways of making a living, and the poorest are always more likely to be forced to the margins, to live on or in the shadow of dangerous, unstable slopes.

Second, the world is warming: for every extra degree Celsius the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7%, so more rain is likely to fall with ever greater intensity to saturate more soil and dislodge more rock. The researchers found that 79% of all landslides could be linked to rainfall.

And, with greater warming, there is a greater hazard of devastating superstorms, along with hurricanes and tropical cyclones that deliver the conditions for catastrophic floods not just in Asia but in Europe and the US.

Paradoxically, extremes of heat and drought can also create dangerous slopes: dangerous wild fires can remove the tree cover that stops hillsides from slipping, and drive people from their homes to places that could later be just as hazardous.

Applying knowledge

Research like this is never just academic: the point of such studies is to draw attention to natural disasters that need never have happened, and identify the communities most at risk.

And these, the scientists say, are more frequently in poor countries, with the poorest of all disproportionately at risk. The point the scientists make is that there is nothing inevitable about a “natural” disaster. Human error, heedlessness and ignorance all contribute to loss, suffering and death.

“With appropriate regulation to guide engineering design, education and enforcement by regulation by specialist inspectors, landslides triggered by construction, mining and hill-cutting are entirely preventable,” Dr Froude said. – Climate News Network

Australian rain proves fiercer than expected

As the world warms, the storm clouds gather. And Australian rain is now often of a ferocity and intensity without precedent.

LONDON, 8 August, 2018 – Australian rain across much of the country is reaching an unexpected ferocity, and scientists who predicted a greater number of ever more intense rainstorms as the planet warms may have to think again – and think big.

A new study says the rate of rainfall in Australia during thunderstorms is in fact increasing twice or even three times beyond expectation, and much faster than would be expected with global warming. The largest downpours arrive with the most extreme events.

And although climate change predictions long ago foresaw the danger of ever more intense storms, researchers have looked back over the last 50 years to show that this is already happening.

What they did not expect to find was that such rainstorms are much more intense than anything they had expected under a regime of global warming and climate change, driven by profligate human use of fossil fuels.

“The important thing now is to understand why rainfall is becoming so much more intense in Australia and to look at changes in other places around the world”

“It was thought there was a limit on how much more rain could fall during these extreme events as a result of rising temperatures,” said Selma Guerreiro, an engineer at the University of Newcastle in the UK, who led the study.

“Now that upper limit has been broken, and instead we are seeing increases in rainfall, two to three times higher than expected during these short, intense rainstorms. This does not mean that we will see this rate of increase everywhere. But the important thing now is to understand why rainfall is becoming so much more intense in Australia and to look at changes in other places around the world.

“How these rainfall events will change in the future will vary from place to place and depend on local conditions besides temperature increases.”

She and her colleagues report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at what could be expected, under predictable conditions. One expectation is that as the air warms by 1°C, its capacity to absorb moisture increases by almost 7%, which means with more warmth there will be more evaporation, and more rainfall.

They looked over the records for the years 1966-1989 and 1990-2013 at data for daily and hourly rainfall – which should record the most intense downpours – from more than 100 weather stations. Between the two periods, global average temperatures increased by 0.48°C. They observed hourly extremes that were double, and even three times, the expected scale for any particular temperature rise.

Consistent predictions

That Australia is a continent of extremes, and a landscape that continues to deliver the unexpected, is no surprise. All climate models predict more extreme rainfall.  Climate change has already been implicated in Australia’s catastrophic 2010 floods. Researchers have consistently predicted a stormier future for Australia, with ever greater temperatures.

One of the researchers, Seth Westra of the University of Adelaide, explicitly predicted rising rainfall five years ago. In the same year researchers confirmed that so much rain had fallen on Australia in 2010 that global sea level actually dropped.

But the latest study does more than confirm recent certainties: it highlights the peculiar hazard that can be linked to storm intensity. The heavier and more focused the downpour, the greater the risk of urban flooding, landslips and potentially lethal flash floods. And although engineers and city planners expected to have to deal with more stormwater, what could happen is far worse than anything they are now prepared for.

“If we keep seeing this rate of change,” Professor Westra said, “we risk committing future generations to levels of flood risk that are unacceptable by today’s standards.” – Climate News Network

As the world warms, the storm clouds gather. And Australian rain is now often of a ferocity and intensity without precedent.

LONDON, 8 August, 2018 – Australian rain across much of the country is reaching an unexpected ferocity, and scientists who predicted a greater number of ever more intense rainstorms as the planet warms may have to think again – and think big.

A new study says the rate of rainfall in Australia during thunderstorms is in fact increasing twice or even three times beyond expectation, and much faster than would be expected with global warming. The largest downpours arrive with the most extreme events.

And although climate change predictions long ago foresaw the danger of ever more intense storms, researchers have looked back over the last 50 years to show that this is already happening.

What they did not expect to find was that such rainstorms are much more intense than anything they had expected under a regime of global warming and climate change, driven by profligate human use of fossil fuels.

“The important thing now is to understand why rainfall is becoming so much more intense in Australia and to look at changes in other places around the world”

“It was thought there was a limit on how much more rain could fall during these extreme events as a result of rising temperatures,” said Selma Guerreiro, an engineer at the University of Newcastle in the UK, who led the study.

“Now that upper limit has been broken, and instead we are seeing increases in rainfall, two to three times higher than expected during these short, intense rainstorms. This does not mean that we will see this rate of increase everywhere. But the important thing now is to understand why rainfall is becoming so much more intense in Australia and to look at changes in other places around the world.

“How these rainfall events will change in the future will vary from place to place and depend on local conditions besides temperature increases.”

She and her colleagues report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at what could be expected, under predictable conditions. One expectation is that as the air warms by 1°C, its capacity to absorb moisture increases by almost 7%, which means with more warmth there will be more evaporation, and more rainfall.

They looked over the records for the years 1966-1989 and 1990-2013 at data for daily and hourly rainfall – which should record the most intense downpours – from more than 100 weather stations. Between the two periods, global average temperatures increased by 0.48°C. They observed hourly extremes that were double, and even three times, the expected scale for any particular temperature rise.

Consistent predictions

That Australia is a continent of extremes, and a landscape that continues to deliver the unexpected, is no surprise. All climate models predict more extreme rainfall.  Climate change has already been implicated in Australia’s catastrophic 2010 floods. Researchers have consistently predicted a stormier future for Australia, with ever greater temperatures.

One of the researchers, Seth Westra of the University of Adelaide, explicitly predicted rising rainfall five years ago. In the same year researchers confirmed that so much rain had fallen on Australia in 2010 that global sea level actually dropped.

But the latest study does more than confirm recent certainties: it highlights the peculiar hazard that can be linked to storm intensity. The heavier and more focused the downpour, the greater the risk of urban flooding, landslips and potentially lethal flash floods. And although engineers and city planners expected to have to deal with more stormwater, what could happen is far worse than anything they are now prepared for.

“If we keep seeing this rate of change,” Professor Westra said, “we risk committing future generations to levels of flood risk that are unacceptable by today’s standards.” – Climate News Network

Hothouse Earth could soon be unavoidable

Researchers say the world may be approaching a tipping point, followed by a dangerous slide towards Hothouse Earth, an overheated planet.

LONDON, 7 August, 2018 – Human actions threaten to push the planet into a new state, called Hothouse Earth. In such a world global average temperatures could stabilise at 4°C or even 5°C higher than they have been for most of human history.

Global sea levels, too, would rise, by 10 metres, or even as much as 60 metres, to drown all the world’s great coastal cities. Such a transition might happen “in only a century or two”, but once started, there might be no stopping it.

It would be uncontrollable and dangerous to many and “it poses severe risks for health, economies, political stability … and ultimately the habitability of the planet for humans.”

And, say scientists who have completed a survey of the research landscape, there is no knowing how close the threshold of dramatic change might be. The planet has already warmed by 1°C in the last century, and the thermometer is climbing at a rate of 0.17°C per decade.

Even at the ambitious target temperature rise of no more than 2°C by the end of the century – a target endorsed by 195 nations in Paris in 2015 – humans might already have triggered a cascade of feedbacks that would set the planet sliding to a point hotter than at any time in the last 10 million years.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over”

Researchers, led by Will Steffen of the Australian National University and backed by some of the big names of European climate science, report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they considered 10 natural processes, among them a number of tipping points that could lead to change once a certain temperature threshold had been crossed.

These feedbacks could turn what are, right now, carbon sinks – stores of atmospheric carbon locked away in the soils and the forests – into sources of greenhouse gases that could accelerate global warming.

These future hazards include thawing of the permafrost, the loss of methane hydrates stored in the ocean floor, the weakening of carbon stores both on land and in the oceans, increasing bacterial activity in the seas, dieback in the tropical Amazon forest and in the cool forests of the north, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic summer, and the loss of Antarctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over. Places on Earth will become uninhabitable if ‘Hothouse Earth’ becomes a reality,” said Johan Rockström, of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Losing balance

And a co-author, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, who directs the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: “We show how industrial age greenhouse gas emissions force our climate, and ultimately the Earth system, out of balance.

“In particular, we address tipping elements in the planetary machinery that might, once a certain level has been passed, one by one change fundamentally rapidly, and perhaps irreversibly. The cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation.”

The message, although alarming, is a restatement of previous findings and a reconsideration of existing evidence, enhanced by lessons from the more recent geological past, in which rocks and the fossils buried with them tell a story of dramatic changes in temperature and sea level.

Other researchers have raised the hazard of “tipping points” that could send the climate into a state of irreversible change. Professor Steffen three years ago warned that of the nine safe “planetary boundaries” that kept Earth in a stable climate state, four had already been crossed.

Potsdam scientists have already proposed that human release of greenhouse gases – the consequence of profligate use of fossil fuels – has now lifted the Earth from its million year cycle of Ice Ages and interglacials into a new stabilised state, known variously as the  Anthropocene and “the Deglacial.” And Stockholm scientists have joined them in warning that there are more uncertainties and climate stresses to come.

Planetary threshold

The new study however re-examines the possibilities and once again spells out the dangers in language of uncompromising clarity. “The Earth system may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions – Hothouse Earth.

“This pathway would be propelled by strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks difficult to influence by human actions, a pathway that could not be reversed, steered or substantially slowed.”

And, the authors warn, the impact on human society would be “massive, sometimes abrupt and undoubtedly disruptive.”

But, of course, nobody knows at what point such a dangerous slide into a new temperature zone could become inexorable, and the researchers make this clear.

“What we do not know is whether the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2°C above preindustrial levels, as the Paris Agreement envisages,” said Professor Schellnhuber, “or if it will, once pushed so far, slip down the slope towards a hothouse planet. Research must assess this risk as soon as possible.” – Climate News Network

Researchers say the world may be approaching a tipping point, followed by a dangerous slide towards Hothouse Earth, an overheated planet.

LONDON, 7 August, 2018 – Human actions threaten to push the planet into a new state, called Hothouse Earth. In such a world global average temperatures could stabilise at 4°C or even 5°C higher than they have been for most of human history.

Global sea levels, too, would rise, by 10 metres, or even as much as 60 metres, to drown all the world’s great coastal cities. Such a transition might happen “in only a century or two”, but once started, there might be no stopping it.

It would be uncontrollable and dangerous to many and “it poses severe risks for health, economies, political stability … and ultimately the habitability of the planet for humans.”

And, say scientists who have completed a survey of the research landscape, there is no knowing how close the threshold of dramatic change might be. The planet has already warmed by 1°C in the last century, and the thermometer is climbing at a rate of 0.17°C per decade.

Even at the ambitious target temperature rise of no more than 2°C by the end of the century – a target endorsed by 195 nations in Paris in 2015 – humans might already have triggered a cascade of feedbacks that would set the planet sliding to a point hotter than at any time in the last 10 million years.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over”

Researchers, led by Will Steffen of the Australian National University and backed by some of the big names of European climate science, report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they considered 10 natural processes, among them a number of tipping points that could lead to change once a certain temperature threshold had been crossed.

These feedbacks could turn what are, right now, carbon sinks – stores of atmospheric carbon locked away in the soils and the forests – into sources of greenhouse gases that could accelerate global warming.

These future hazards include thawing of the permafrost, the loss of methane hydrates stored in the ocean floor, the weakening of carbon stores both on land and in the oceans, increasing bacterial activity in the seas, dieback in the tropical Amazon forest and in the cool forests of the north, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic summer, and the loss of Antarctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over. Places on Earth will become uninhabitable if ‘Hothouse Earth’ becomes a reality,” said Johan Rockström, of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Losing balance

And a co-author, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, who directs the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: “We show how industrial age greenhouse gas emissions force our climate, and ultimately the Earth system, out of balance.

“In particular, we address tipping elements in the planetary machinery that might, once a certain level has been passed, one by one change fundamentally rapidly, and perhaps irreversibly. The cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation.”

The message, although alarming, is a restatement of previous findings and a reconsideration of existing evidence, enhanced by lessons from the more recent geological past, in which rocks and the fossils buried with them tell a story of dramatic changes in temperature and sea level.

Other researchers have raised the hazard of “tipping points” that could send the climate into a state of irreversible change. Professor Steffen three years ago warned that of the nine safe “planetary boundaries” that kept Earth in a stable climate state, four had already been crossed.

Potsdam scientists have already proposed that human release of greenhouse gases – the consequence of profligate use of fossil fuels – has now lifted the Earth from its million year cycle of Ice Ages and interglacials into a new stabilised state, known variously as the  Anthropocene and “the Deglacial.” And Stockholm scientists have joined them in warning that there are more uncertainties and climate stresses to come.

Planetary threshold

The new study however re-examines the possibilities and once again spells out the dangers in language of uncompromising clarity. “The Earth system may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions – Hothouse Earth.

“This pathway would be propelled by strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks difficult to influence by human actions, a pathway that could not be reversed, steered or substantially slowed.”

And, the authors warn, the impact on human society would be “massive, sometimes abrupt and undoubtedly disruptive.”

But, of course, nobody knows at what point such a dangerous slide into a new temperature zone could become inexorable, and the researchers make this clear.

“What we do not know is whether the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2°C above preindustrial levels, as the Paris Agreement envisages,” said Professor Schellnhuber, “or if it will, once pushed so far, slip down the slope towards a hothouse planet. Research must assess this risk as soon as possible.” – Climate News Network

Flooded internet is possible by 2035

Information now travels along the internet. But what happens when sea levels rise and leave a flooded internet, its vital cables and traffic hubs under water?

LONDON, 20 July, 2018 – US engineers have identified a problem nobody had ever expected to confront so soon: the approach of the flooded internet, caused by worldwide sea level rise. Within 15 years seawater could be lapping over buried fibre optic cables in New York, Seattle, Miami and other US coastal cities, according to a new study.

The consequences for global communications are unknown. But, as the glaciers melt, and the water in the oceans continues to expand as temperatures rise, the chances of urban flooding will increase.

And that means water where nobody expected it – over buried cables, data centres, traffic exchanges, termination points and other nerve centres of the physical internet, according to a team from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Oregon.

“Most of the damage that’s going to be done in the next 100 years will be done sooner than later,” said Paul Barford, the computer scientist who led the study and presented it to a meeting of network scientists. “That surprised us. The expectation was we’d have 50 years to plan for it. We don’t have 50 years.”

“Keeping the sea at bay is hard. We can probably buy a little time, but in the long run it’s just not going to be effective”

In fact, such buried infrastructure is usually sheathed in water-resistant protection, but water-resistant is not the same as waterproof. And while submarine cables are fashioned to withstand extended seawater corrosion and pressure, urban services don’t have quite the same level of future-proofing.

But city managers already have the awful lessons of massive flooding in New York  from Superstorm Sandy, or of New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina, or of Houston from Hurricane Harvey.

The message from climate science for the last five years has been simple: expect more coastal flooding.

Risk easily increased

The US scientists looked only at the challenges for the US. They calculate that by 2033 an estimated 4,000 miles (6,400 kms) of buried fibre optic conduit will be under water. More than 1,100 traffic hubs – internet exchange points that handle massive quantities of information at colossal speeds – will be surrounded by water.

Many of the conduits at risk are already at or near sea level, and only a very slight further rise could bring extra risk, especially at those places where the submarine cables come ashore.

“The landing points are all going to be underwater in a short period of time,” Professor Barford believes. “The first instinct will be to harden the infrastructure. But keeping the sea at bay is hard. We can probably buy a little time, but in the long run it’s just not going to be effective.”

And, he told academics and industry scientists at an Applied Network Research Workshop: “This is a wake-up call. We need to be thinking about how to address this issue.” – Climate News Network

Information now travels along the internet. But what happens when sea levels rise and leave a flooded internet, its vital cables and traffic hubs under water?

LONDON, 20 July, 2018 – US engineers have identified a problem nobody had ever expected to confront so soon: the approach of the flooded internet, caused by worldwide sea level rise. Within 15 years seawater could be lapping over buried fibre optic cables in New York, Seattle, Miami and other US coastal cities, according to a new study.

The consequences for global communications are unknown. But, as the glaciers melt, and the water in the oceans continues to expand as temperatures rise, the chances of urban flooding will increase.

And that means water where nobody expected it – over buried cables, data centres, traffic exchanges, termination points and other nerve centres of the physical internet, according to a team from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Oregon.

“Most of the damage that’s going to be done in the next 100 years will be done sooner than later,” said Paul Barford, the computer scientist who led the study and presented it to a meeting of network scientists. “That surprised us. The expectation was we’d have 50 years to plan for it. We don’t have 50 years.”

“Keeping the sea at bay is hard. We can probably buy a little time, but in the long run it’s just not going to be effective”

In fact, such buried infrastructure is usually sheathed in water-resistant protection, but water-resistant is not the same as waterproof. And while submarine cables are fashioned to withstand extended seawater corrosion and pressure, urban services don’t have quite the same level of future-proofing.

But city managers already have the awful lessons of massive flooding in New York  from Superstorm Sandy, or of New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina, or of Houston from Hurricane Harvey.

The message from climate science for the last five years has been simple: expect more coastal flooding.

Risk easily increased

The US scientists looked only at the challenges for the US. They calculate that by 2033 an estimated 4,000 miles (6,400 kms) of buried fibre optic conduit will be under water. More than 1,100 traffic hubs – internet exchange points that handle massive quantities of information at colossal speeds – will be surrounded by water.

Many of the conduits at risk are already at or near sea level, and only a very slight further rise could bring extra risk, especially at those places where the submarine cables come ashore.

“The landing points are all going to be underwater in a short period of time,” Professor Barford believes. “The first instinct will be to harden the infrastructure. But keeping the sea at bay is hard. We can probably buy a little time, but in the long run it’s just not going to be effective.”

And, he told academics and industry scientists at an Applied Network Research Workshop: “This is a wake-up call. We need to be thinking about how to address this issue.” – Climate News Network

Slowing tropical cyclones bring more mayhem

Tropical cyclones are slowing down. Hurricanes have lost their hurry. Paradoxically, this is bad news: they have more time to work their mischief.

LONDON, 15 June, 2018 – Tropical cyclones are moving more slowly. As temperatures rise, the pace at which a hurricane storms across a landscape has slowed perceptibly in the last 70 years. But the slowdown means each hurricane has more time to do more damage and deliver more flooding.

“Tropical cyclones over land have slowed down 20% in the Atlantic, 30% in the northwestern Pacific and 19% in the Australian region,” said James Kossin, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s national centres for environmental information.

“These trends are almost certainly increasing local rainfall totals and freshwater flooding, which is associated with a very high mortality risk.”

He reports in the journal Nature that thanks to atmospheric warming as a consequence of the profligate combustion of fossil fuels in the last century, the summer tropical circulation has slowed and, along with it, hurricane and typhoon speeds. Overall, since 1940, cyclone movements have slowed by 10%; over some land areas, they have slowed much more.

But as the temperature goes up, the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture increases – by at least 7% with each degree Centigrade. That means a tropical cyclone – a whirling system of terrifying winds bearing huge quantities of water – has both more water, and more time to drop it over land.

Harvey’s warning

And Dr Kossin cites the example of Hurricane Harvey which in 2017 dumped more than 1.25 metres of water on Houston, Texas and the surrounding countryside in just five days. Devastating floods displaced 30,000 people, and 89 died. Economic losses were assessed at more than $126bn.

This shift in what researchers call the translation speed is new – and is only the latest study in a procession of alarming findings about the response of the winds in a warming world.

Researchers have already established that hurricanes are gaining in ferocity – that is, becoming more intense – at a faster rate than they did decades ago. They have warned that windstorms’ capacity to damage the world’s economy is on the increase directly because of global warming and consequent climate change, and they have identified a trend in hurricane geography: the storms are moving further north, in the northern hemisphere.

The combination of rising sea levels and fiercer storms could create, some argue, a new class of climate refugee in the US. And they have bad news for Texas: more storms like Harvey could be on the way.

“These trends are almost certainly increasing local rainfall totals and freshwater flooding, which is associated with a very high mortality risk”

In the course of the last century, global average temperatures have, as a consequence of the notorious greenhouse effect, gone up by around 1°C. Around 195 nations agreed in Paris in 2015 to attempt to contain global warming to 1.5°C in total by 2100, but gloomy forecasts suggest that unless action becomes urgent, temperatures will rise much higher.

And that means that hurricanes will go on slowing, to deliver ever more damage as they linger over coastal cities and farmlands.

“The observed 10% slowdown occurred in a period when the planet warmed by 0.5°C, but this does not provide a true measure of climate sensitivity, and more study is needed to determine how much more slowing will occur with continued warming,” Dr Kossin said.

“Still, it’s entirely plausible that local rainfall increases could actually be dominated by this slowdown rather than that the expected rain-rate increases due to global warming”. – Climate News Network

Tropical cyclones are slowing down. Hurricanes have lost their hurry. Paradoxically, this is bad news: they have more time to work their mischief.

LONDON, 15 June, 2018 – Tropical cyclones are moving more slowly. As temperatures rise, the pace at which a hurricane storms across a landscape has slowed perceptibly in the last 70 years. But the slowdown means each hurricane has more time to do more damage and deliver more flooding.

“Tropical cyclones over land have slowed down 20% in the Atlantic, 30% in the northwestern Pacific and 19% in the Australian region,” said James Kossin, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s national centres for environmental information.

“These trends are almost certainly increasing local rainfall totals and freshwater flooding, which is associated with a very high mortality risk.”

He reports in the journal Nature that thanks to atmospheric warming as a consequence of the profligate combustion of fossil fuels in the last century, the summer tropical circulation has slowed and, along with it, hurricane and typhoon speeds. Overall, since 1940, cyclone movements have slowed by 10%; over some land areas, they have slowed much more.

But as the temperature goes up, the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture increases – by at least 7% with each degree Centigrade. That means a tropical cyclone – a whirling system of terrifying winds bearing huge quantities of water – has both more water, and more time to drop it over land.

Harvey’s warning

And Dr Kossin cites the example of Hurricane Harvey which in 2017 dumped more than 1.25 metres of water on Houston, Texas and the surrounding countryside in just five days. Devastating floods displaced 30,000 people, and 89 died. Economic losses were assessed at more than $126bn.

This shift in what researchers call the translation speed is new – and is only the latest study in a procession of alarming findings about the response of the winds in a warming world.

Researchers have already established that hurricanes are gaining in ferocity – that is, becoming more intense – at a faster rate than they did decades ago. They have warned that windstorms’ capacity to damage the world’s economy is on the increase directly because of global warming and consequent climate change, and they have identified a trend in hurricane geography: the storms are moving further north, in the northern hemisphere.

The combination of rising sea levels and fiercer storms could create, some argue, a new class of climate refugee in the US. And they have bad news for Texas: more storms like Harvey could be on the way.

“These trends are almost certainly increasing local rainfall totals and freshwater flooding, which is associated with a very high mortality risk”

In the course of the last century, global average temperatures have, as a consequence of the notorious greenhouse effect, gone up by around 1°C. Around 195 nations agreed in Paris in 2015 to attempt to contain global warming to 1.5°C in total by 2100, but gloomy forecasts suggest that unless action becomes urgent, temperatures will rise much higher.

And that means that hurricanes will go on slowing, to deliver ever more damage as they linger over coastal cities and farmlands.

“The observed 10% slowdown occurred in a period when the planet warmed by 0.5°C, but this does not provide a true measure of climate sensitivity, and more study is needed to determine how much more slowing will occur with continued warming,” Dr Kossin said.

“Still, it’s entirely plausible that local rainfall increases could actually be dominated by this slowdown rather than that the expected rain-rate increases due to global warming”. – Climate News Network

Homeless Bangladeshis flee before rising waters

Rising sea levels and recurrent floods mean more homeless Bangladeshis, with unpredictably changing rainfall patterns compounding their plight.

LONDON, 13 June, 2018 – As another monsoon season begins, huge numbers of homeless Bangladeshis are once again bracing themselves against the onslaught of floods and the sight of large chunks of land being devoured by rising water levels.

Bangladesh, on the Bay of Bengal, is low-lying and crisscrossed by a web of rivers: two thirds of the country’s land area is less than five metres above sea level. With 166 million people, it’s one of the poorest and most densely populated countries on Earth – and one of the most threatened by climate change.

A recently released report by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) says rises in sea levels caused by climate change could result in Bangladesh losing more than 10% of its land area by mid-century, resulting in the displacement of 15 million people.

The country is already experiencing some of the fastest-recorded sea level rises in the world, says the EJF, a UK-based organisation that lobbies for environmental security to be viewed as a basic human right.

Unpredictable rains

Increasingly erratic rainfall patterns – linked to changes in climate – are adding to the nation’s problems. Sudden, violent downpours have resulted in rivers breaking their banks and land being washed away.

Rising sea levels mean land and drinking water is contaminated by salt. Farmers are forced to abandon their land and move – many to Dhaka, the capital, one of the world’s so-called megacities, with a population of more than 15 million.

“Bangladesh has a long history of floods, but what used to be a one-in-20-year event is now happening one year in five”, says Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Dhaka. “It is what we would expect with climate change models.”

Farmers further inland are also forced to move to the capital in search of work due to surging rivers eating away their lands. The city’s slums are expanding, and Dhaka’s population is increasing by more than 4% each year.

Farming abandoned

“We had a small farm – we used to produce peanuts and gourd, corn and sugar all year round”, says one farmer quoted in the EJF report. “Now I collect scraps of work as a labourer.”

EJF says climate change should not be seen only as an environmental issue; climate change is also contributing to a rapidly developing humanitarian crisis, not just in Bangladesh but in many other regions around the world.

“It is countries like Bangladesh, and people like those we met, whose contributions to climate change have been among the smallest, that are now facing the worst impacts”, says Steve Trent, EJF’s executive director.

“We must act now to prevent this becoming a full-scale humanitarian crisis.”

“Bangladesh has a long history of floods, but what used to be a one-in-20-year event is now happening one year in five”

In recent months more than 600,000 people – Rohingya refugees from violence in neighbouring Myanmar – have set up shelters in southern Bangladesh. There are fears that this community could also be under threat during the monsoon period.

The EJF report highlights how women in Bangladesh are especially vulnerable to climate-related disasters. In 1991 a cyclone which swept across the Bay of Bengal caused the deaths of 140,000 people and forced 10 million to leave their homes.

EJF says 90% of the dead were women; their lower status means they are often not taught survival skills. Women also tend to stay with children and other family members when disaster strikes.

Those women who do migrate find it more difficult to adapt to life in a Dhaka slum or elsewhere. Some become victims of trafficking, ending up in brothels in India.

Foreign migration grows

EJF says that while most climate migration is internal, there are indications that growing numbers of Bangladeshis are seeking to move outside the country. It says that in early 2017 there was a particularly big surge in the number of Bangladeshi migrants arriving in Italy after completing the perilous journey by land and sea from their homeland.

EJF is calling for the creation of an international legally binding agreement for the protection of climate refugees. The EU should take the lead in this process, it says.

“There should be clarifications on the obligations of states to persons displaced by climate change, with new legal definitions”, says EJF.

“Definitions of climate-induced migration are urgently needed to ensure a rights-based approach and give clarity to the legal status of ‘climate refugees’; these must be developed without delay.” – Climate News Network

Rising sea levels and recurrent floods mean more homeless Bangladeshis, with unpredictably changing rainfall patterns compounding their plight.

LONDON, 13 June, 2018 – As another monsoon season begins, huge numbers of homeless Bangladeshis are once again bracing themselves against the onslaught of floods and the sight of large chunks of land being devoured by rising water levels.

Bangladesh, on the Bay of Bengal, is low-lying and crisscrossed by a web of rivers: two thirds of the country’s land area is less than five metres above sea level. With 166 million people, it’s one of the poorest and most densely populated countries on Earth – and one of the most threatened by climate change.

A recently released report by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) says rises in sea levels caused by climate change could result in Bangladesh losing more than 10% of its land area by mid-century, resulting in the displacement of 15 million people.

The country is already experiencing some of the fastest-recorded sea level rises in the world, says the EJF, a UK-based organisation that lobbies for environmental security to be viewed as a basic human right.

Unpredictable rains

Increasingly erratic rainfall patterns – linked to changes in climate – are adding to the nation’s problems. Sudden, violent downpours have resulted in rivers breaking their banks and land being washed away.

Rising sea levels mean land and drinking water is contaminated by salt. Farmers are forced to abandon their land and move – many to Dhaka, the capital, one of the world’s so-called megacities, with a population of more than 15 million.

“Bangladesh has a long history of floods, but what used to be a one-in-20-year event is now happening one year in five”, says Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Dhaka. “It is what we would expect with climate change models.”

Farmers further inland are also forced to move to the capital in search of work due to surging rivers eating away their lands. The city’s slums are expanding, and Dhaka’s population is increasing by more than 4% each year.

Farming abandoned

“We had a small farm – we used to produce peanuts and gourd, corn and sugar all year round”, says one farmer quoted in the EJF report. “Now I collect scraps of work as a labourer.”

EJF says climate change should not be seen only as an environmental issue; climate change is also contributing to a rapidly developing humanitarian crisis, not just in Bangladesh but in many other regions around the world.

“It is countries like Bangladesh, and people like those we met, whose contributions to climate change have been among the smallest, that are now facing the worst impacts”, says Steve Trent, EJF’s executive director.

“We must act now to prevent this becoming a full-scale humanitarian crisis.”

“Bangladesh has a long history of floods, but what used to be a one-in-20-year event is now happening one year in five”

In recent months more than 600,000 people – Rohingya refugees from violence in neighbouring Myanmar – have set up shelters in southern Bangladesh. There are fears that this community could also be under threat during the monsoon period.

The EJF report highlights how women in Bangladesh are especially vulnerable to climate-related disasters. In 1991 a cyclone which swept across the Bay of Bengal caused the deaths of 140,000 people and forced 10 million to leave their homes.

EJF says 90% of the dead were women; their lower status means they are often not taught survival skills. Women also tend to stay with children and other family members when disaster strikes.

Those women who do migrate find it more difficult to adapt to life in a Dhaka slum or elsewhere. Some become victims of trafficking, ending up in brothels in India.

Foreign migration grows

EJF says that while most climate migration is internal, there are indications that growing numbers of Bangladeshis are seeking to move outside the country. It says that in early 2017 there was a particularly big surge in the number of Bangladeshi migrants arriving in Italy after completing the perilous journey by land and sea from their homeland.

EJF is calling for the creation of an international legally binding agreement for the protection of climate refugees. The EU should take the lead in this process, it says.

“There should be clarifications on the obligations of states to persons displaced by climate change, with new legal definitions”, says EJF.

“Definitions of climate-induced migration are urgently needed to ensure a rights-based approach and give clarity to the legal status of ‘climate refugees’; these must be developed without delay.” – Climate News Network

US economy risks China’s climate impact

In this globalised world China’s climate impact could hit America’s economy, as one country’s calamities indirectly harm other nations. The losses could grow.

LONDON, 30 May, 2018 – German scientists have shown once again that climate change remains a global problem, with China’s climate impact, for instance, hurting the economy of the United States. Disastrous flooding – likely to increase as the world warms, and ever more water enters the atmosphere – in one country could reverberate in ways that could harm another nation’s economy.

More precisely, China alone could experience a total of $380bn in economic losses over the next 20 years: this adds up to about 5% of the nation’s annual economic output.

About $175 billion of total losses could be attributed to future climate change – and as these losses are passed down the global trade and supply network, the US and the European Union could be most affected.

If so, river flooding in China alone – aside from the ever-greater extremes of heat and windstorm that are predicted to arrive with higher temperatures – could bring US losses of up to $170 billion in the next 20 years.

“Trump’s tariff sanctions are likely to leave the US economy even more vulnerable to climate change”

“The EU will suffer less from indirect losses caused by climate-related flooding in China due to its even trade balance. They will suffer when flooded regions in China temporarily fail to deliver for instance parts that European companies need for their production, but on the other hand Europe will profit from filling climate-induced production gaps in China by exporting goods to Asia.

“This yields the European economy currently more climate-prepared for the future,” said Sven Norman Willner, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study.

“In contrast, the US imports much more from China than it exports to this country. This leaves the US more susceptible to climate-related risks of economic losses passed down along the global supply and trade chain.”

He and his co-authors report in the journal Nature Climate Change that they took a look at the economic challenge for the world as a whole in the limited case of river flooding: damage caused by human-induced climate change, as a consequence of the combustion of fossil fuels at a rate that has already begun to change the chemistry of the atmosphere, could become a significant factor in the global economy, and river flooding has always been a problem.

Heat rises by 1°C

But as temperatures rise – and they have already risen by a global average of about 1°C in the last century, as ever more greenhouse gases have reached the atmosphere – so does evaporation, and so does the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture, which must eventually fall as rain.

The researchers looked at projections of near-future flood hazards on a regional scale that humans could expect to see on the basis of greenhouse gases already emitted. They then incorporated what is already known about economic network response to river flooding and its effects, taking into account the dynamics of international trade.

In research of this kind, the Potsdam Institute has what racing tipsters call “form.” One of the researchers, Anders Levermann, has already warned that greenhouse gases are forcing up sea levels; that warming carries with it global economic threats; and that the numbers of humans at risk from the worst of the future floods are rising.

The news is not all bad: climate change could also bring more rain to the countries of the African Sahel, but the same changes could mean ever higher levels of hurricane damage in the US.

Complicated prospect

The latest study has its own complexities: much depends on the course of international trade and the capacity of those countries not flooded to make good the shortfalls that follow flood disasters in one river system. In essence, international relations and natural hazard vulnerabilities have become entangled.

The entanglement remains, even though America’s President Trump has imposed tariffs to protect US industry. Unless nations adapt further, climate change will accelerate flood losses worldwide by about 15%, to a global total of $600bn within the next two decades. China’s losses could increase by 82%. America will still feel the shock, the researchers say.

“We find that the intensification of the mutual trade relation with China leaves the EU better prepared against production losses in Asia than the US. The prospect that the US will be worse off can be traced back to the fact that it is importing more products from China than it is exporting,” said Professor Levermann.

“Interestingly, such an unbalanced trade relation might be an economic risk for the US when it comes to climate-related economic losses. In the end, Trump’s tariffs might impede climate-proofing the US economy.”

He went on: “Trump’s tariff sanctions are likely to leave the US economy even more vulnerable to climate change. As our study suggests, under climate change, the more reasonable strategy is a well-balanced economic connectivity, because it allows to compensate economic damages from unexpected weather events – of which we expect more in the future.” – Climate News Network

In this globalised world China’s climate impact could hit America’s economy, as one country’s calamities indirectly harm other nations. The losses could grow.

LONDON, 30 May, 2018 – German scientists have shown once again that climate change remains a global problem, with China’s climate impact, for instance, hurting the economy of the United States. Disastrous flooding – likely to increase as the world warms, and ever more water enters the atmosphere – in one country could reverberate in ways that could harm another nation’s economy.

More precisely, China alone could experience a total of $380bn in economic losses over the next 20 years: this adds up to about 5% of the nation’s annual economic output.

About $175 billion of total losses could be attributed to future climate change – and as these losses are passed down the global trade and supply network, the US and the European Union could be most affected.

If so, river flooding in China alone – aside from the ever-greater extremes of heat and windstorm that are predicted to arrive with higher temperatures – could bring US losses of up to $170 billion in the next 20 years.

“Trump’s tariff sanctions are likely to leave the US economy even more vulnerable to climate change”

“The EU will suffer less from indirect losses caused by climate-related flooding in China due to its even trade balance. They will suffer when flooded regions in China temporarily fail to deliver for instance parts that European companies need for their production, but on the other hand Europe will profit from filling climate-induced production gaps in China by exporting goods to Asia.

“This yields the European economy currently more climate-prepared for the future,” said Sven Norman Willner, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study.

“In contrast, the US imports much more from China than it exports to this country. This leaves the US more susceptible to climate-related risks of economic losses passed down along the global supply and trade chain.”

He and his co-authors report in the journal Nature Climate Change that they took a look at the economic challenge for the world as a whole in the limited case of river flooding: damage caused by human-induced climate change, as a consequence of the combustion of fossil fuels at a rate that has already begun to change the chemistry of the atmosphere, could become a significant factor in the global economy, and river flooding has always been a problem.

Heat rises by 1°C

But as temperatures rise – and they have already risen by a global average of about 1°C in the last century, as ever more greenhouse gases have reached the atmosphere – so does evaporation, and so does the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture, which must eventually fall as rain.

The researchers looked at projections of near-future flood hazards on a regional scale that humans could expect to see on the basis of greenhouse gases already emitted. They then incorporated what is already known about economic network response to river flooding and its effects, taking into account the dynamics of international trade.

In research of this kind, the Potsdam Institute has what racing tipsters call “form.” One of the researchers, Anders Levermann, has already warned that greenhouse gases are forcing up sea levels; that warming carries with it global economic threats; and that the numbers of humans at risk from the worst of the future floods are rising.

The news is not all bad: climate change could also bring more rain to the countries of the African Sahel, but the same changes could mean ever higher levels of hurricane damage in the US.

Complicated prospect

The latest study has its own complexities: much depends on the course of international trade and the capacity of those countries not flooded to make good the shortfalls that follow flood disasters in one river system. In essence, international relations and natural hazard vulnerabilities have become entangled.

The entanglement remains, even though America’s President Trump has imposed tariffs to protect US industry. Unless nations adapt further, climate change will accelerate flood losses worldwide by about 15%, to a global total of $600bn within the next two decades. China’s losses could increase by 82%. America will still feel the shock, the researchers say.

“We find that the intensification of the mutual trade relation with China leaves the EU better prepared against production losses in Asia than the US. The prospect that the US will be worse off can be traced back to the fact that it is importing more products from China than it is exporting,” said Professor Levermann.

“Interestingly, such an unbalanced trade relation might be an economic risk for the US when it comes to climate-related economic losses. In the end, Trump’s tariffs might impede climate-proofing the US economy.”

He went on: “Trump’s tariff sanctions are likely to leave the US economy even more vulnerable to climate change. As our study suggests, under climate change, the more reasonable strategy is a well-balanced economic connectivity, because it allows to compensate economic damages from unexpected weather events – of which we expect more in the future.” – Climate News Network

Small global warming cuts offer huge savings

Everybody profits from a world that cuts global warming to only another half a degree. The challenge is to persuade nations to act.

LONDON, 28 May, 2018 – Californian scientists have worked out how to reduce global warming so as to make the world 20 trillion US dollars better off. It’s simple. Just stick to the spirit of an international agreement that the American President Donald Trump has already broken.

The researchers arrived at their forecasts of climate profit and loss to calculate that if the 195 nations who agreed in Paris in 2015 to contain global warming to “well below” 2°C by the end of the century kept their promise – and global temperatures have already crept up 1°C in the last century as a consequence of the profligate use of fossil fuels – then there would be a 60% chance that the benefits would exceed $20 trillion.

That represents the savings made by avoiding the calamitous economic damage that would accompany higher temperatures. The same scientists also argue that 71% of the world’s nations – including China, Japan and the US – with 90% of the world’s population have a 75% chance of experiencing reduced economic damage, if global warming is limited to 1.5°C: that is, to just an extra half of a degree this century.

And although conjectures about wealth that has yet to be generated and disasters that have yet to happen are subject to enormous uncertainties, the scientists stand by their argument: if the world fails to meet the 2°C limit, the economic damage could add up to 15% of the world’s entire economic output.

“Even small reductions in future warming could have large benefits for most countries”

Calculations like these are difficult enough, but at least one of the authors has been making the case for concerted global action for years. Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University, has already warned that global extremes of heat and drought are an inevitable consequence of continued warming.

He says warming that has happened so far has already increased California’s vulnerability to devastating drought and may now be influencing the south Asian monsoon, on which a billion people depend.

“It is clear from our analysis that achieving the more ambitious Paris goal is highly likely to benefit most countries – and the global economy overall – by avoiding more severe economic damages,” Professor Diffenbaugh said.

And Marshall Burke, his Stanford colleague who led the study in the journal Nature, said: “Over the past century we have already experienced a 1°C increase in global temperature, so achieving the ambitious targets laid out in the Paris Agreement will not be easy or cheap. We need a clear understanding of how much economic benefit we’re going to get from meeting these different targets.”

Worse outcome possible

The researchers think they may even have underestimated the costs of a dangerously hotter world: they cite, for instance, the rapid rise in sea levels if the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps melt, or heatwaves and floods intensify more dramatically than anything seen so far in human history.

Although the richest nations stand to benefit most from sticking strictly to the Paris ambitions, some of the world’s poorest regions will also feel the benefit, with a noticeable increase in gross domestic product per head.

“The countries likely to benefit the most are already relatively hot today,” Dr Burke said. “The historical record tells us that additional warming will be very harmful to these countries’ economies, and so even small reductions in future warming could have large benefits for most countries.” – Climate News Network

Everybody profits from a world that cuts global warming to only another half a degree. The challenge is to persuade nations to act.

LONDON, 28 May, 2018 – Californian scientists have worked out how to reduce global warming so as to make the world 20 trillion US dollars better off. It’s simple. Just stick to the spirit of an international agreement that the American President Donald Trump has already broken.

The researchers arrived at their forecasts of climate profit and loss to calculate that if the 195 nations who agreed in Paris in 2015 to contain global warming to “well below” 2°C by the end of the century kept their promise – and global temperatures have already crept up 1°C in the last century as a consequence of the profligate use of fossil fuels – then there would be a 60% chance that the benefits would exceed $20 trillion.

That represents the savings made by avoiding the calamitous economic damage that would accompany higher temperatures. The same scientists also argue that 71% of the world’s nations – including China, Japan and the US – with 90% of the world’s population have a 75% chance of experiencing reduced economic damage, if global warming is limited to 1.5°C: that is, to just an extra half of a degree this century.

And although conjectures about wealth that has yet to be generated and disasters that have yet to happen are subject to enormous uncertainties, the scientists stand by their argument: if the world fails to meet the 2°C limit, the economic damage could add up to 15% of the world’s entire economic output.

“Even small reductions in future warming could have large benefits for most countries”

Calculations like these are difficult enough, but at least one of the authors has been making the case for concerted global action for years. Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University, has already warned that global extremes of heat and drought are an inevitable consequence of continued warming.

He says warming that has happened so far has already increased California’s vulnerability to devastating drought and may now be influencing the south Asian monsoon, on which a billion people depend.

“It is clear from our analysis that achieving the more ambitious Paris goal is highly likely to benefit most countries – and the global economy overall – by avoiding more severe economic damages,” Professor Diffenbaugh said.

And Marshall Burke, his Stanford colleague who led the study in the journal Nature, said: “Over the past century we have already experienced a 1°C increase in global temperature, so achieving the ambitious targets laid out in the Paris Agreement will not be easy or cheap. We need a clear understanding of how much economic benefit we’re going to get from meeting these different targets.”

Worse outcome possible

The researchers think they may even have underestimated the costs of a dangerously hotter world: they cite, for instance, the rapid rise in sea levels if the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps melt, or heatwaves and floods intensify more dramatically than anything seen so far in human history.

Although the richest nations stand to benefit most from sticking strictly to the Paris ambitions, some of the world’s poorest regions will also feel the benefit, with a noticeable increase in gross domestic product per head.

“The countries likely to benefit the most are already relatively hot today,” Dr Burke said. “The historical record tells us that additional warming will be very harmful to these countries’ economies, and so even small reductions in future warming could have large benefits for most countries.” – Climate News Network