Tag Archives: Glaciers

Unstable polar glaciers lose ice ever faster

As oceans warm, Antarctica’s ice sheets are at growing risk, with polar glaciers losing ice at rates to match the height of global monuments.

LONDON, 31 May, 2019 – Almost a quarter of all the glaciers in West Antarctica have been pronounced “unstable”. This means, in the simplest terms, that they are losing ice to the ocean faster than they can gain it from falling snow.

In the last 25 years most of the largest flows have accelerated the loss of ice fivefold.

And in places some glaciers, including those known as Pine Island and Thwaites, have “thinned” by 122 metres. That means that the thickness of the ice between the surface and the bedrock over which glaciers flow has fallen by almost the height of the Great Pyramid of Cheops in Egypt, and far more than the Statue of Liberty in New York or the tower of Big Ben in London.

The conclusions are based on climate simulation matched against 800 million measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet recorded by the altimeters aboard four orbiting satellites put up by the European Space Agency between 1992 and 2017. The conclusion is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“A wave of thinning has spread rapidly across some of Antarctica’s most vulnerable glaciers, and their losses are driving up sea levels around the planet”

Antarctic research is challenging. The continent is enormous – nearly twice the size of Australia – and frozen: 99.4% of it is covered by ice, to huge depths. It is also defined as a desert.

Snowfalls are low, but over millions of years these have built up to a reservoir of about nine-tenths of the planet’s fresh water, in the form of snow and ice.

It is also the coldest place on Earth and – even more of a problem for climate scientists – no observations or measurements of anything in Antarctica date back much further than the beginning of the 19th century. Most of the on-the-ground science is possible only in the Antarctic summer.

The latest study confirms a succession of alarming finds. The West Antarctic ice sheet is not just losing ice, it is doing so at ever-faster speeds. Scientists have already suggested that the rate of loss for the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers could be irreversible. So much has already been lost that the bedrock, crushed by its burden of ice for aeons, is actually beginning to bounce up in response.

Huge ice losses

“In parts of Antarctica the ice sheet has thinned by extraordinary amounts, and we set out to show how much was due to changes in climate and how much was due to weather,” said Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds, UK, who led the research.

Changes in snowfall tended, they found, to be reflected over changes in height over large areas for a few years. But the most pronounced changes have persisted for decades: it’s the climate that is changing things, not the weather.

“Knowing how much snow has fallen has really helped us to detect the underlying change in glacier ice within the satellite record. We can see clearly now that a wave of thinning has spread rapidly across some of Antarctica’s most vulnerable glaciers, and their losses are driving up sea levels around the planet”, Professor Shepherd says.

“Altogether, ice losses from East and West Antarctica have contributed 4.6mm to global sea level rise since 1992.” – Climate News Network

As oceans warm, Antarctica’s ice sheets are at growing risk, with polar glaciers losing ice at rates to match the height of global monuments.

LONDON, 31 May, 2019 – Almost a quarter of all the glaciers in West Antarctica have been pronounced “unstable”. This means, in the simplest terms, that they are losing ice to the ocean faster than they can gain it from falling snow.

In the last 25 years most of the largest flows have accelerated the loss of ice fivefold.

And in places some glaciers, including those known as Pine Island and Thwaites, have “thinned” by 122 metres. That means that the thickness of the ice between the surface and the bedrock over which glaciers flow has fallen by almost the height of the Great Pyramid of Cheops in Egypt, and far more than the Statue of Liberty in New York or the tower of Big Ben in London.

The conclusions are based on climate simulation matched against 800 million measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet recorded by the altimeters aboard four orbiting satellites put up by the European Space Agency between 1992 and 2017. The conclusion is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“A wave of thinning has spread rapidly across some of Antarctica’s most vulnerable glaciers, and their losses are driving up sea levels around the planet”

Antarctic research is challenging. The continent is enormous – nearly twice the size of Australia – and frozen: 99.4% of it is covered by ice, to huge depths. It is also defined as a desert.

Snowfalls are low, but over millions of years these have built up to a reservoir of about nine-tenths of the planet’s fresh water, in the form of snow and ice.

It is also the coldest place on Earth and – even more of a problem for climate scientists – no observations or measurements of anything in Antarctica date back much further than the beginning of the 19th century. Most of the on-the-ground science is possible only in the Antarctic summer.

The latest study confirms a succession of alarming finds. The West Antarctic ice sheet is not just losing ice, it is doing so at ever-faster speeds. Scientists have already suggested that the rate of loss for the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers could be irreversible. So much has already been lost that the bedrock, crushed by its burden of ice for aeons, is actually beginning to bounce up in response.

Huge ice losses

“In parts of Antarctica the ice sheet has thinned by extraordinary amounts, and we set out to show how much was due to changes in climate and how much was due to weather,” said Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds, UK, who led the research.

Changes in snowfall tended, they found, to be reflected over changes in height over large areas for a few years. But the most pronounced changes have persisted for decades: it’s the climate that is changing things, not the weather.

“Knowing how much snow has fallen has really helped us to detect the underlying change in glacier ice within the satellite record. We can see clearly now that a wave of thinning has spread rapidly across some of Antarctica’s most vulnerable glaciers, and their losses are driving up sea levels around the planet”, Professor Shepherd says.

“Altogether, ice losses from East and West Antarctica have contributed 4.6mm to global sea level rise since 1992.” – Climate News Network

Half of melting glaciers could go by 2100

Melting glaciers worldwide – all treasured for their beauty and as sources of summer water – could be half gone by 2100.

LONDON, 13 May, 2019 – Around half of some of the world’s most beautiful mountain ranges are about to lose their melting glaciers, the force that shapes and highlights their beauty.

Swiss-based scientists investigated 46 world heritage sites nominated by UNESCO, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, and compiled an inventory of 19,000 glaciers. And then, they report in the journal Earth’s Future, they calculated recent changes and the glaciers’ present condition and projected the rate of mass loss into the future.

They warn that, if the world goes on burning fossil fuels at ever-increasing rates, almost half of all these glaciers will have vanished by 2100.

In somewhere between eight and 21 such world heritage sites – national parks that have a profound role in water management and often a powerful economic role as tourist attractions – there may be no glaciers at all by the century’s end.

Strengthened commitment

“Losing these iconic glaciers would be a tragedy and have major consequences for the availability of water resources, sea level rise and weather patterns,” warned Peter Shadie, who directs the world heritage programme of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

“This unprecedented decline could also jeopardise the listing of the sites in question on the World Heritage list. States must reinforce their commitments to combat climate change and step up efforts to preserve these glaciers for future generations.”

And Jean-Baptiste Bosson, of the IUCN’s headquarters in Gland, Switzerland, who led the study, said: “We urgently need to see significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. This is the only way of avoiding long-lasting and irreversible glacier decline and the major natural, social, economic and migratory cascading consequences.”

Essentially, the study was based on a review of research so far: for more than a decade scientists have been alarmed at the increasing rates of loss in the great frozen rivers at high altitude and on the polar ice caps, in ways that will harm wealthy communities as well as poor farmers in both Asia and South America.

“Losing these iconic glaciers would be a tragedy and have major consequences for the availability of water resources, sea level rise and weather patterns”

But the researchers also looked at North America’s burden of mountain ice to forecast up to 70% of loss by 2100, and in the Pyrenees between France and Spain they warned of losses as early as 2040. Te Wahipounamu in the south-west of New Zealand could say farewell to between 25% and 80% of its ice this century.

The researchers looked at a series of projections for global warming. In some cases, the loss is inexorable. Even if the 195 nations that in Paris in 2015 vowed to keep global average temperatures “well below” a rise of 2°C by the end of the century actually take the drastic steps needed to keep that promise, at least a third of all the ice will disappear, and entirely in eight sites.

If the Paris signatories carry on with business as usual, the rate of loss could reach 60% in the 46 sites, and 21 of those would have lost all traces of ice altogether.

“The study of glacier decline further emphasises the need for individual and collective actions to achieve the mitigation and adaptation aspirations of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” Dr Bosson said. – Climate News Network

Melting glaciers worldwide – all treasured for their beauty and as sources of summer water – could be half gone by 2100.

LONDON, 13 May, 2019 – Around half of some of the world’s most beautiful mountain ranges are about to lose their melting glaciers, the force that shapes and highlights their beauty.

Swiss-based scientists investigated 46 world heritage sites nominated by UNESCO, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, and compiled an inventory of 19,000 glaciers. And then, they report in the journal Earth’s Future, they calculated recent changes and the glaciers’ present condition and projected the rate of mass loss into the future.

They warn that, if the world goes on burning fossil fuels at ever-increasing rates, almost half of all these glaciers will have vanished by 2100.

In somewhere between eight and 21 such world heritage sites – national parks that have a profound role in water management and often a powerful economic role as tourist attractions – there may be no glaciers at all by the century’s end.

Strengthened commitment

“Losing these iconic glaciers would be a tragedy and have major consequences for the availability of water resources, sea level rise and weather patterns,” warned Peter Shadie, who directs the world heritage programme of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

“This unprecedented decline could also jeopardise the listing of the sites in question on the World Heritage list. States must reinforce their commitments to combat climate change and step up efforts to preserve these glaciers for future generations.”

And Jean-Baptiste Bosson, of the IUCN’s headquarters in Gland, Switzerland, who led the study, said: “We urgently need to see significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. This is the only way of avoiding long-lasting and irreversible glacier decline and the major natural, social, economic and migratory cascading consequences.”

Essentially, the study was based on a review of research so far: for more than a decade scientists have been alarmed at the increasing rates of loss in the great frozen rivers at high altitude and on the polar ice caps, in ways that will harm wealthy communities as well as poor farmers in both Asia and South America.

“Losing these iconic glaciers would be a tragedy and have major consequences for the availability of water resources, sea level rise and weather patterns”

But the researchers also looked at North America’s burden of mountain ice to forecast up to 70% of loss by 2100, and in the Pyrenees between France and Spain they warned of losses as early as 2040. Te Wahipounamu in the south-west of New Zealand could say farewell to between 25% and 80% of its ice this century.

The researchers looked at a series of projections for global warming. In some cases, the loss is inexorable. Even if the 195 nations that in Paris in 2015 vowed to keep global average temperatures “well below” a rise of 2°C by the end of the century actually take the drastic steps needed to keep that promise, at least a third of all the ice will disappear, and entirely in eight sites.

If the Paris signatories carry on with business as usual, the rate of loss could reach 60% in the 46 sites, and 21 of those would have lost all traces of ice altogether.

“The study of glacier decline further emphasises the need for individual and collective actions to achieve the mitigation and adaptation aspirations of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” Dr Bosson said. – Climate News Network

Heat makes ocean winds and waves fiercer

The seas are rising. Ocean winds and waves are growing in speed and force. The oceans could be feeling the heat.

LONDON, 1 May, 2019 − The great swells of the Pacific are beginning to swell even more as fiercer ocean winds and waves leave their mark. The breakers that crash on the storm beaches now do so with greater force. The white horses are gathering pace.

A 33-year-study of data from 31 satellites and 80 ocean buoys has confirmed suspicions. The extreme ocean winds are now fiercer, and the waves are getting measurably higher.

It is a given of global warming that as average planetary temperatures rise, then more energy is available for storm, rainfall and drought.

In the past century, because of ever-increasing combustion of fossil fuels that release growing quantities of greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have crept higher by 1°C and in three decades the speed of extreme winds in the Southern Ocean has increased by 8%, or 1.5 metres per second. Extreme waves have increased by 30cms, or 5%, over the same period.

“These changes have impacts that are felt all over the world. Storm waves can increase coastal erosion, putting coastal settlements and infrastructures at risk”

“Although increases of 5 and 8% might not seem like much, if sustained into the future such changes to our climate will have major impacts,” said Ian Young, an engineer at the University of Melbourne in Australia

He and a colleague report in the journal Science that they reached their conclusion on the basis of 4 billion observations made between 1985 and 2018.

“Flooding events are caused by storm surge and associated breaking waves. The increased sea level makes these events more serious and more frequent,” said Professor Young. “Increases in wave height, and changes in other properties such as wave direction, will further increase the probability of coastal flooding.”

Sea levels have been creeping ever higher, in large part because of the retreat of most of the planet’s great glaciers and the ever-increasing meltwater from Greenland and West Antarctica, and also as a simple matter of physics: as the oceans warm, the waters become less dense and sea levels rise.

Difficult measurements

Surfers and pleasure-seekers began to worry about the impact of global warming and climate change on wave patterns years ago. But seemingly simple phenomena such as the effects wave height and wind speed have in the open oceans on a world-wide basis are harder to measure.

Spanish oceanographers reported earlier this year that they were sure that ocean waves were gathering in force and strength, and European engineers have warned of the impact of more intense storms backed up by rising seas on the Atlantic ports and coastlines of the continent.

But there are problems: precision measurements have been made only recently. Oceanographers cannot be sure that they are not witnessing a natural cycle of ocean change, in which storm intensities slowly vary over a pattern of decades.

Since 1985 earth observation satellites have been equipped with altimeters to measure wave height and wind speed, radiometers to measure wind speed, and scatterometers to record wind speed and direction. The next problem has been calibrating data from a range of different satellites, and indeed the slightly different stories told by instruments on the same satellite.

Worse to come

But the Australian engineers report that they are now 90% confident that they can measure ocean change: violent storms now arrive with higher wave crests and more dangerous winds than they did in 1985, and although this is true worldwide, the effect is most pronounced in the great ocean that swirls around Antarctica.

The next challenge is to make estimates of how much more violent the worst sea storms are likely to become later in the century, as planetary average temperatures – and sea levels – continue to rise.

“These changes have impacts that are felt all over the world. Storm waves can increase coastal erosion, putting coastal settlements and infrastructures at risk,” Professor Young said.

“We need a better understanding of how much this change is due to long-term climate change, and how much is due to multi-decadal fluctuations or cycles.” − Climate News Network

The seas are rising. Ocean winds and waves are growing in speed and force. The oceans could be feeling the heat.

LONDON, 1 May, 2019 − The great swells of the Pacific are beginning to swell even more as fiercer ocean winds and waves leave their mark. The breakers that crash on the storm beaches now do so with greater force. The white horses are gathering pace.

A 33-year-study of data from 31 satellites and 80 ocean buoys has confirmed suspicions. The extreme ocean winds are now fiercer, and the waves are getting measurably higher.

It is a given of global warming that as average planetary temperatures rise, then more energy is available for storm, rainfall and drought.

In the past century, because of ever-increasing combustion of fossil fuels that release growing quantities of greenhouse gases, average global temperatures have crept higher by 1°C and in three decades the speed of extreme winds in the Southern Ocean has increased by 8%, or 1.5 metres per second. Extreme waves have increased by 30cms, or 5%, over the same period.

“These changes have impacts that are felt all over the world. Storm waves can increase coastal erosion, putting coastal settlements and infrastructures at risk”

“Although increases of 5 and 8% might not seem like much, if sustained into the future such changes to our climate will have major impacts,” said Ian Young, an engineer at the University of Melbourne in Australia

He and a colleague report in the journal Science that they reached their conclusion on the basis of 4 billion observations made between 1985 and 2018.

“Flooding events are caused by storm surge and associated breaking waves. The increased sea level makes these events more serious and more frequent,” said Professor Young. “Increases in wave height, and changes in other properties such as wave direction, will further increase the probability of coastal flooding.”

Sea levels have been creeping ever higher, in large part because of the retreat of most of the planet’s great glaciers and the ever-increasing meltwater from Greenland and West Antarctica, and also as a simple matter of physics: as the oceans warm, the waters become less dense and sea levels rise.

Difficult measurements

Surfers and pleasure-seekers began to worry about the impact of global warming and climate change on wave patterns years ago. But seemingly simple phenomena such as the effects wave height and wind speed have in the open oceans on a world-wide basis are harder to measure.

Spanish oceanographers reported earlier this year that they were sure that ocean waves were gathering in force and strength, and European engineers have warned of the impact of more intense storms backed up by rising seas on the Atlantic ports and coastlines of the continent.

But there are problems: precision measurements have been made only recently. Oceanographers cannot be sure that they are not witnessing a natural cycle of ocean change, in which storm intensities slowly vary over a pattern of decades.

Since 1985 earth observation satellites have been equipped with altimeters to measure wave height and wind speed, radiometers to measure wind speed, and scatterometers to record wind speed and direction. The next problem has been calibrating data from a range of different satellites, and indeed the slightly different stories told by instruments on the same satellite.

Worse to come

But the Australian engineers report that they are now 90% confident that they can measure ocean change: violent storms now arrive with higher wave crests and more dangerous winds than they did in 1985, and although this is true worldwide, the effect is most pronounced in the great ocean that swirls around Antarctica.

The next challenge is to make estimates of how much more violent the worst sea storms are likely to become later in the century, as planetary average temperatures – and sea levels – continue to rise.

“These changes have impacts that are felt all over the world. Storm waves can increase coastal erosion, putting coastal settlements and infrastructures at risk,” Professor Young said.

“We need a better understanding of how much this change is due to long-term climate change, and how much is due to multi-decadal fluctuations or cycles.” − Climate News Network

Glaciers’ global melt may leave Alps bare

High mountain ice is vital to millions. As the world warms, the glaciers’ global melt could see the frozen peaks vanish.

LONDON, 12 April, 2019 – Many of the planet’s most scenic – and most valued – high-altitude landscapes are likely to look quite different within the next 80 years: the glaciers’ global melt will have left just bare rock.

By the century’s end, Europe’s famous Alps – the chain of snow- and ice-covered peaks that have become a playground of the wealthy and a source of income and pleasure for generations – will have lost more than nine-tenths of all its glacier ice.

And in the last 50 years, the world’s glaciers – in Asia, the Americas, Europe, Africa and the sub-Arctic mountains – have lost more than nine trillion tonnes of ice as global temperatures creep ever upwards in response to profligate combustion of fossil fuels.

And as meltwater has trickled down the mountains, the seas have risen by 27mm, thanks entirely to glacial retreat.

“Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century”

In two separate studies, Swiss scientists have tried to audit a profit and loss account for the world’s frozen high-altitude rivers, and found a steady downhill trend.

Glacial ice is a source of security and even wealth: in the poorest regions the annual summer melt of winter snow and ice banked at altitude can guarantee both energy as hydropower and water for crops in the valleys and floodplains.

In wealthy regions, the white peaks and slopes become sources of income as tourist attractions and centres for winter sport – as well as reliable sources of power and water.

Swiss focus

In the journal The Cryosphere, a team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, almost always known simply as ETH Zurich, looked into the future of the nation’s own landscape, and beyond.

They made computer models of the annual flow of ice and its melting patterns and took 2017 as the reference year: a year when the Alpine glaciers bore 100 cubic kilometres of ice. And then they started simulating the future.

If humankind kept the promise made by 195 nations in Paris in 2015, to drastically reduce fossil fuel use, lower emissions of carbon dioxide, restore the forests and keep global warming to no more than 2°C above historic levels, then the stores of high ice would be reduced by more than a third over the next eight decades. If humankind went on expanding its use of fossil fuels at the present rates, then half of all the ice would be lost by 2050 and 95% by 2100.

Time lag

But there will be losses in all scenarios: warming so far has seen to that. Ice reflects radiation and keeps itself cold, so change lags behind atmospheric temperature.

“The future evolution of glaciers will strongly depend on how the climate will evolve,” said Harry Zekollari, once of ETH and now at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, who led the research. “In the case of a more limited warming, a far more substantial part of the glaciers could be saved.”

The Alpine glaciers were made world-famous first by Romantic painters and poets of the 19th century, among them JMW Turner and Lord Byron. But their contribution to rising sea levels is, in a global context, negligible.

When Swiss researchers and their Russian, Canadian and European partners looked at the big picture, they found that the mass loss of ice from the mountains of AlaskaCanada, parts of Asia and the Andes matched the increasing flow of water from the melting Greenland ice cap, and exceeded the flow of melting water from the Antarctic continent.

Europe’s modest melt

They report in Nature that glaciers separate from the Greenland and Antarctic sheets covered 706,000 square kilometres of the planet, with a total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 40 centimetres of potential sea level rise.

And in the five decades from 1961 to 2016, according to careful study of satellite imagery and historic observations, the seas have already risen by 27mm as a consequence of increasing rates of glacial retreat. This is already between 25% and 30% of observed sea level rise so far.

Europe did not figure much in the reckoning. “Globally, we lose three times the ice volume stored in the entirety of the European Alps – every single year,” said Michael Zemp, a glaciologist at the University of Zurich.

He and his colleagues warn: “Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierised regions will continue to contribute to sea level rise beyond 2100.” – Climate News Network

High mountain ice is vital to millions. As the world warms, the glaciers’ global melt could see the frozen peaks vanish.

LONDON, 12 April, 2019 – Many of the planet’s most scenic – and most valued – high-altitude landscapes are likely to look quite different within the next 80 years: the glaciers’ global melt will have left just bare rock.

By the century’s end, Europe’s famous Alps – the chain of snow- and ice-covered peaks that have become a playground of the wealthy and a source of income and pleasure for generations – will have lost more than nine-tenths of all its glacier ice.

And in the last 50 years, the world’s glaciers – in Asia, the Americas, Europe, Africa and the sub-Arctic mountains – have lost more than nine trillion tonnes of ice as global temperatures creep ever upwards in response to profligate combustion of fossil fuels.

And as meltwater has trickled down the mountains, the seas have risen by 27mm, thanks entirely to glacial retreat.

“Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century”

In two separate studies, Swiss scientists have tried to audit a profit and loss account for the world’s frozen high-altitude rivers, and found a steady downhill trend.

Glacial ice is a source of security and even wealth: in the poorest regions the annual summer melt of winter snow and ice banked at altitude can guarantee both energy as hydropower and water for crops in the valleys and floodplains.

In wealthy regions, the white peaks and slopes become sources of income as tourist attractions and centres for winter sport – as well as reliable sources of power and water.

Swiss focus

In the journal The Cryosphere, a team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, almost always known simply as ETH Zurich, looked into the future of the nation’s own landscape, and beyond.

They made computer models of the annual flow of ice and its melting patterns and took 2017 as the reference year: a year when the Alpine glaciers bore 100 cubic kilometres of ice. And then they started simulating the future.

If humankind kept the promise made by 195 nations in Paris in 2015, to drastically reduce fossil fuel use, lower emissions of carbon dioxide, restore the forests and keep global warming to no more than 2°C above historic levels, then the stores of high ice would be reduced by more than a third over the next eight decades. If humankind went on expanding its use of fossil fuels at the present rates, then half of all the ice would be lost by 2050 and 95% by 2100.

Time lag

But there will be losses in all scenarios: warming so far has seen to that. Ice reflects radiation and keeps itself cold, so change lags behind atmospheric temperature.

“The future evolution of glaciers will strongly depend on how the climate will evolve,” said Harry Zekollari, once of ETH and now at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, who led the research. “In the case of a more limited warming, a far more substantial part of the glaciers could be saved.”

The Alpine glaciers were made world-famous first by Romantic painters and poets of the 19th century, among them JMW Turner and Lord Byron. But their contribution to rising sea levels is, in a global context, negligible.

When Swiss researchers and their Russian, Canadian and European partners looked at the big picture, they found that the mass loss of ice from the mountains of AlaskaCanada, parts of Asia and the Andes matched the increasing flow of water from the melting Greenland ice cap, and exceeded the flow of melting water from the Antarctic continent.

Europe’s modest melt

They report in Nature that glaciers separate from the Greenland and Antarctic sheets covered 706,000 square kilometres of the planet, with a total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 40 centimetres of potential sea level rise.

And in the five decades from 1961 to 2016, according to careful study of satellite imagery and historic observations, the seas have already risen by 27mm as a consequence of increasing rates of glacial retreat. This is already between 25% and 30% of observed sea level rise so far.

Europe did not figure much in the reckoning. “Globally, we lose three times the ice volume stored in the entirety of the European Alps – every single year,” said Michael Zemp, a glaciologist at the University of Zurich.

He and his colleagues warn: “Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierised regions will continue to contribute to sea level rise beyond 2100.” – Climate News Network

Greenland’s winter rain melts icecap faster

Its huge icecap is thawing faster because Greenland’s winter rain means its snows are being washed away, or falling at higher altitudes.

LONDON, 8 March, 2019 − The largest body of ice in the northern hemisphere faces a problem scientists had not identified before: Greenland’s winter rain is accelerating the loss of its vast store of ice.

Two new studies have identified mechanisms for ever-faster melting of the ice. One is that the snowline keeps shifting, to alter the levels of radiation absorbed by the ice sheet that masks the Greenland bedrock.

The other is that ever more snow and ice is simply washed away by the rainfall – even in the Arctic winter. That is because global warming has raised Greenland’s summer temperatures as much as 1.8°C, and by up to 3°C in the winter months.

Reports of winter rain over an icecap large enough – if it were all washed into the ocean – to raise global sea levels by more than seven metres are a surprise: glaciologists expect some melting of the polar ice caps each summer, to be replaced each winter by snowfall that insulates the ice below and then endures for much of the following summer.

Meltwater matters more

Such icecaps are thought to shed most of their mass as glaciers deliver ice downstream to the coast, and icebergs calve and float south.

But research in the journal The Cryosphere tells a different and unexpected story: direct meltwater now running off Greenland into the sea accounts for seven-tenths of the 270 billion tonnes of ice that Greenland loses each year. And increasingly, rainy weather is the trigger that sets off the rivulets of meltwater streaming to the coast.

German and US researchers took data from 20 Greenland weather stations between 1979 and 2012, and matched this with satellite imagery that could distinguish snow from liquid water. In the data they identified more than 300 episodes of melting in which the initial trigger was the arrival of rain.

And during the 33 years of data, they found that melting associated with rainfall doubled during the summer months, and tripled in winter. Nearly a third of all the flow of water from Greenland was initiated by rainfall.

“Suddenly the snowline was just gone. In a couple of days it had moved 30 kilometres or so up the ice sheet”

Warm air can melt ice but, more potently, warming air can turn what might have been snow into rain. Liquid water carries considerable heat, to soak into the snow and melt it. And the clouds that bring the rain have a way of conserving the warmth in the air.

Some of the meltwater will refreeze as surface ice, darkened by dust and colonised by algae, to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than snow, and to melt more easily and much earlier in the summer.

“If it rains in the winter, that preconditions the ice to be more vulnerable in the summer,” said Marco Tedesco of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, one of the authors. “We are starting to realise you have to look at all the seasons.”

Most of the winter rainfall is in the island’s south and southwest, spilled by warm ocean winds from the south, and these may have become more common because warming has been linked to changes in the stratospheric jet stream.

Loss not gain

Marilena Oltmanns, of Germany’s Geomar Centre for Ocean Research, called the discovery “a surprise to see. The ice should be gaining mass in winter when it snows, but an increasing part of the mass gain from precipitation is lost by melt.”

But research in the journal Science Advances in the same week pinpoints another related factor in setting the rate of melting in Greenland: the snowline.

This varies significantly from year to year. Once again, snow tends to reflect radiation, and with darker ice to absorb it the new study suggests that even Greenland’s icy mountains conform to simple physics.

Researchers flew drones inland across the bare ice to identify the snowline. A pause during a few days of high winds brought a big surprise.

No specific studies

“Suddenly the snowline was just gone. In a couple of days it had moved 30 kilometres or so up the ice sheet and was now out of the range of our drones.

“That was the first moment we thought we should investigate the effects of snowline movement on melt,” said Jonathan Ryan, of Brown University in Rhode Island, who led the study.

And Laurence Smith, a researcher based at Brown University, and one of the authors, said: “People who study alpine glaciers have recognised the importance of snowlines for years, but no one has explicitly studied them in Greenland before.

“This study shows for the first time that simple partitioning between bare ice and snow matters more when it comes to melting than a whole host of other processes that receive more attention.” − Climate News Network

Its huge icecap is thawing faster because Greenland’s winter rain means its snows are being washed away, or falling at higher altitudes.

LONDON, 8 March, 2019 − The largest body of ice in the northern hemisphere faces a problem scientists had not identified before: Greenland’s winter rain is accelerating the loss of its vast store of ice.

Two new studies have identified mechanisms for ever-faster melting of the ice. One is that the snowline keeps shifting, to alter the levels of radiation absorbed by the ice sheet that masks the Greenland bedrock.

The other is that ever more snow and ice is simply washed away by the rainfall – even in the Arctic winter. That is because global warming has raised Greenland’s summer temperatures as much as 1.8°C, and by up to 3°C in the winter months.

Reports of winter rain over an icecap large enough – if it were all washed into the ocean – to raise global sea levels by more than seven metres are a surprise: glaciologists expect some melting of the polar ice caps each summer, to be replaced each winter by snowfall that insulates the ice below and then endures for much of the following summer.

Meltwater matters more

Such icecaps are thought to shed most of their mass as glaciers deliver ice downstream to the coast, and icebergs calve and float south.

But research in the journal The Cryosphere tells a different and unexpected story: direct meltwater now running off Greenland into the sea accounts for seven-tenths of the 270 billion tonnes of ice that Greenland loses each year. And increasingly, rainy weather is the trigger that sets off the rivulets of meltwater streaming to the coast.

German and US researchers took data from 20 Greenland weather stations between 1979 and 2012, and matched this with satellite imagery that could distinguish snow from liquid water. In the data they identified more than 300 episodes of melting in which the initial trigger was the arrival of rain.

And during the 33 years of data, they found that melting associated with rainfall doubled during the summer months, and tripled in winter. Nearly a third of all the flow of water from Greenland was initiated by rainfall.

“Suddenly the snowline was just gone. In a couple of days it had moved 30 kilometres or so up the ice sheet”

Warm air can melt ice but, more potently, warming air can turn what might have been snow into rain. Liquid water carries considerable heat, to soak into the snow and melt it. And the clouds that bring the rain have a way of conserving the warmth in the air.

Some of the meltwater will refreeze as surface ice, darkened by dust and colonised by algae, to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than snow, and to melt more easily and much earlier in the summer.

“If it rains in the winter, that preconditions the ice to be more vulnerable in the summer,” said Marco Tedesco of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, one of the authors. “We are starting to realise you have to look at all the seasons.”

Most of the winter rainfall is in the island’s south and southwest, spilled by warm ocean winds from the south, and these may have become more common because warming has been linked to changes in the stratospheric jet stream.

Loss not gain

Marilena Oltmanns, of Germany’s Geomar Centre for Ocean Research, called the discovery “a surprise to see. The ice should be gaining mass in winter when it snows, but an increasing part of the mass gain from precipitation is lost by melt.”

But research in the journal Science Advances in the same week pinpoints another related factor in setting the rate of melting in Greenland: the snowline.

This varies significantly from year to year. Once again, snow tends to reflect radiation, and with darker ice to absorb it the new study suggests that even Greenland’s icy mountains conform to simple physics.

Researchers flew drones inland across the bare ice to identify the snowline. A pause during a few days of high winds brought a big surprise.

No specific studies

“Suddenly the snowline was just gone. In a couple of days it had moved 30 kilometres or so up the ice sheet and was now out of the range of our drones.

“That was the first moment we thought we should investigate the effects of snowline movement on melt,” said Jonathan Ryan, of Brown University in Rhode Island, who led the study.

And Laurence Smith, a researcher based at Brown University, and one of the authors, said: “People who study alpine glaciers have recognised the importance of snowlines for years, but no one has explicitly studied them in Greenland before.

“This study shows for the first time that simple partitioning between bare ice and snow matters more when it comes to melting than a whole host of other processes that receive more attention.” − Climate News Network

Greenland’s icecap melt picks up speed

Recent melting of Greenland’s icecap has been more intense than ever. And all the signs are that it could get worse.

LONDON, 13 December, 2018 – Greenland’s icecap – the largest single store of frozen freshwater in the northern hemisphere – is melting faster than ever, according to two separate studies using two different approaches.

Surface meltwater started flowing over the surface and percolating through the ice at a greater rate in the mid-19th century and accelerated dramatically during the 20th and the first decades of the 21st century, according to a new study of ice cores taken more than 2,000 metres above sea level.

And a 25-year record of European Space Agency satellite data confirms the alarming picture: the elevation of the Greenland ice sheet was changing in the mid-1990s, and the pace of thinning stepped up after 2003. Greenland’s bedrock carries enough ice to raise global sea levels by around seven metres.

“Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has gone into overdrive. As a result, Greenland melt is adding to sea level more than at any time in the last three and a half centuries, if not thousands of years,” said Luke Trusel, a glaciologist at Rowan University in the US.

“And increasing melt began around the same time as we started altering the atmosphere in the mid 1800s.”

“The melting and sea level rise we’ve observed will already be dwarfed by what may be expected in the future”

His co-author Sarah Das of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said: “From a historical perspective, today’s melt rates are off the charts, and this study provides the evidence.”

Snow falls on the great icecaps of the two hemispheres, freezes, melts a little in the summer and freezes again, so that – like the rings of a tree – the accumulated precipitation tells a story of successive years of climate change. The two researchers and their colleagues report in Nature that ice cores taken from the icecap between 2003 and 2015 contained enough information for them to assess annual melting rates over several centuries.

They found a clear pattern of more intense melting nearer the present, and over the last 20 years the intensity increased by between 250% and 575%, compared to the 18th century. In the last century the entire planet has warmed by around 1°C as greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have risen, in response to ever greater use of fossil fuels.

The message for the future is ominous. “Rather than increasing steadily as climate warms, Greenland will melt increasingly more and more for every degree of warming,” said Dr Trusel. “The melting and sea level rise we’ve observed will already be dwarfed by what may be expected in the future as climate continues to warm.”

Greenland has served for decades as a climate laboratory: change almost imperceptible in lower latitudes can be measured almost on a yearly basis in the high fastnesses of the island, and the Nature study is only the latest twist in a story that is already alarming.

Dangers identified

Scientists long ago took the measure of change on the ice cap, in the glaciers and at the boundary with the Atlantic, and identified the dangers of accelerated warming in the Arctic.

They monitored unexpected increases in the flow of the island’s biggest glaciers, monitored the way the island’s bedrock rose in response to an increased loss of ice, and even identified those reaches of ice that had passed the point of no return.

The Nature scientists backed up their on-the-ground observations with measurements made by satellites. And in an entirely separate study, European researchers report in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters that, according to their readings too, the elevation of the icecap had begun to change in ways that enabled them to measure ice loss with the decades, and a recent speed-up.

“A pattern of thinning appears to dominate a large fraction of the ice sheet margins at the beginning of the millennium, with individual outlet glaciers exhibiting large thinning rates,” said Louise Sandberg Sørenson, of the Danish National Space Institute, who led the research.

“Over the full 25-year period, the general picture shows much larger volume losses are experienced in west, northwest and southeast basins of Greenland, compared to the more steady-state situations in the colder north.” – Climate News Network

Recent melting of Greenland’s icecap has been more intense than ever. And all the signs are that it could get worse.

LONDON, 13 December, 2018 – Greenland’s icecap – the largest single store of frozen freshwater in the northern hemisphere – is melting faster than ever, according to two separate studies using two different approaches.

Surface meltwater started flowing over the surface and percolating through the ice at a greater rate in the mid-19th century and accelerated dramatically during the 20th and the first decades of the 21st century, according to a new study of ice cores taken more than 2,000 metres above sea level.

And a 25-year record of European Space Agency satellite data confirms the alarming picture: the elevation of the Greenland ice sheet was changing in the mid-1990s, and the pace of thinning stepped up after 2003. Greenland’s bedrock carries enough ice to raise global sea levels by around seven metres.

“Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has gone into overdrive. As a result, Greenland melt is adding to sea level more than at any time in the last three and a half centuries, if not thousands of years,” said Luke Trusel, a glaciologist at Rowan University in the US.

“And increasing melt began around the same time as we started altering the atmosphere in the mid 1800s.”

“The melting and sea level rise we’ve observed will already be dwarfed by what may be expected in the future”

His co-author Sarah Das of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said: “From a historical perspective, today’s melt rates are off the charts, and this study provides the evidence.”

Snow falls on the great icecaps of the two hemispheres, freezes, melts a little in the summer and freezes again, so that – like the rings of a tree – the accumulated precipitation tells a story of successive years of climate change. The two researchers and their colleagues report in Nature that ice cores taken from the icecap between 2003 and 2015 contained enough information for them to assess annual melting rates over several centuries.

They found a clear pattern of more intense melting nearer the present, and over the last 20 years the intensity increased by between 250% and 575%, compared to the 18th century. In the last century the entire planet has warmed by around 1°C as greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have risen, in response to ever greater use of fossil fuels.

The message for the future is ominous. “Rather than increasing steadily as climate warms, Greenland will melt increasingly more and more for every degree of warming,” said Dr Trusel. “The melting and sea level rise we’ve observed will already be dwarfed by what may be expected in the future as climate continues to warm.”

Greenland has served for decades as a climate laboratory: change almost imperceptible in lower latitudes can be measured almost on a yearly basis in the high fastnesses of the island, and the Nature study is only the latest twist in a story that is already alarming.

Dangers identified

Scientists long ago took the measure of change on the ice cap, in the glaciers and at the boundary with the Atlantic, and identified the dangers of accelerated warming in the Arctic.

They monitored unexpected increases in the flow of the island’s biggest glaciers, monitored the way the island’s bedrock rose in response to an increased loss of ice, and even identified those reaches of ice that had passed the point of no return.

The Nature scientists backed up their on-the-ground observations with measurements made by satellites. And in an entirely separate study, European researchers report in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters that, according to their readings too, the elevation of the icecap had begun to change in ways that enabled them to measure ice loss with the decades, and a recent speed-up.

“A pattern of thinning appears to dominate a large fraction of the ice sheet margins at the beginning of the millennium, with individual outlet glaciers exhibiting large thinning rates,” said Louise Sandberg Sørenson, of the Danish National Space Institute, who led the research.

“Over the full 25-year period, the general picture shows much larger volume losses are experienced in west, northwest and southeast basins of Greenland, compared to the more steady-state situations in the colder north.” – Climate News Network

Underwater walls might avert sea level rise

Could a vast underwater wall in front of an unstable glacier prevent dangerous sea level rise? Or should everyone just move further inland?

LONDON, 10 October, 2018 – Two climate scientists believe they have a long-term solution to dangerous sea level rise by targeting the most vulnerable glaciers, especially those that could trigger a massive collapse of the ice sheets behind them.

A submarine wall big enough and wide enough could halt the flow of increasingly warm ocean water below the front of each glacier. The combination of warmer air temperatures and warmer waters that accompany human-triggered climate change is dangerous: it could for instance accelerate the already alarming retreat of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, which alone shores up enough ice to raise global sea levels by up to 3 metres.

The scientists don’t propose an immediate start. But they do want to explore ways of halting sea level rise driven by global warming that could soon be costing the world $50 trillion a year in economic losses, that could submerge small island states and turn 1 million people a year into climate migrants.

“We are not advocating that glacial geoengineering be attempted any time soon”, they warn in the journal The Cryosphere.

Their simplest option – a series of pillars to shore up a targeted glacier and keep it “grounded” – would require engineering comparable in scale to the excavation of the Suez canal, would be undertaken in the world’s harshest environment, and would have just a one in three chance of success.

“In the long run we need plans to deal with the committed climate changes that are already in the pipeline, one of which may be an ice sheet collapse”

The researchers – John Moore, of Beijing Normal University in China, who also holds a post at the University of Lapland in Finland, and Michael Wolovick, of Princeton University in the US – have made this case before: they and others argued in March in Nature for what they call “managed collapse.”

In the latest study, they look at the challenge in greater detail. And they warn that even if targeted geoengineering of individual glaciers worked, it would only do so if humans stopped tipping ever more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to fuel yet more global warming.

Nor do they argue that a submarine curtain wall to halt warming water across the front of the Thwaites glacier – up to 100 kms wide – is currently feasible. “But in the long run we need plans to deal with the committed climate changes that are already in the pipeline, one of which may be an ice sheet collapse.”

And one of these is the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica: another is the Jakobshaven Isbrae in Greenland. Both could be cases of what the scientists call marine ice sheet instability: as a glacier retreats from its grounding line, the ice lifts off the bedrock and begins to float.

If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet, and warmer ocean currents wash beneath it, then the ice starts to stretch and thin, and retreat further. At some point, it would become much easier for thawing ice to flow into the sea, and start what could become a runaway collapse. Engineers could devise a way of slowing or halting the process.

Huge impact

The scientists argue that even a rise of 0.6m to 1.2 metres by 2100 could cause up to $50 trillion in economic damage, and the resultant flooding could force up to 200 million to 500 million people out of their homes at least for a few days or weeks: around a million or so every year would never go back.

Climate scientists have been arguing about geoengineering solutions – the so-called technofix – to climate change for more than a decade. Global answers, such as blocking sunlight with stratospheric soot and sulphate aerosols, or whitening the polar ice to make it more reflective, remain contentious.

But the Cryosphere proposals are much more limited, and the immediate dangers of sea level rise are not contested. Ice sheet collapse in Antarctica, for instance, could raise sea levels by more than 3 metres and even by as much as 19 metres over the next two or three centuries.

The researchers’ calculations suggest that in theory an engineering solution that blocked even 50% of the warm water getting under a glacier could offer a 70% chance of delaying or stopping ice sheet collapse.

Left behind

Countries already spend on coastal protection: their solution would require international co-operation at the highest political level, and intensive scientific research.

“Managing sea level rise at the source has the advantage of benefiting the entire world, while a strategy that relies only on local coastal protection is more of an every-nation-for-itself approach that may leave many poor countries behind,” they write.

“Perhaps, after careful consideration, we may conclude that glacial geoengineering is unworkable and the right answer is to invest heavily in coastal protection and retreat inland where that is not practical or economical.

“However, we owe it to the 400 million people who live within 5m of sea level to at least consider the alternatives.” – Climate News Network

Could a vast underwater wall in front of an unstable glacier prevent dangerous sea level rise? Or should everyone just move further inland?

LONDON, 10 October, 2018 – Two climate scientists believe they have a long-term solution to dangerous sea level rise by targeting the most vulnerable glaciers, especially those that could trigger a massive collapse of the ice sheets behind them.

A submarine wall big enough and wide enough could halt the flow of increasingly warm ocean water below the front of each glacier. The combination of warmer air temperatures and warmer waters that accompany human-triggered climate change is dangerous: it could for instance accelerate the already alarming retreat of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, which alone shores up enough ice to raise global sea levels by up to 3 metres.

The scientists don’t propose an immediate start. But they do want to explore ways of halting sea level rise driven by global warming that could soon be costing the world $50 trillion a year in economic losses, that could submerge small island states and turn 1 million people a year into climate migrants.

“We are not advocating that glacial geoengineering be attempted any time soon”, they warn in the journal The Cryosphere.

Their simplest option – a series of pillars to shore up a targeted glacier and keep it “grounded” – would require engineering comparable in scale to the excavation of the Suez canal, would be undertaken in the world’s harshest environment, and would have just a one in three chance of success.

“In the long run we need plans to deal with the committed climate changes that are already in the pipeline, one of which may be an ice sheet collapse”

The researchers – John Moore, of Beijing Normal University in China, who also holds a post at the University of Lapland in Finland, and Michael Wolovick, of Princeton University in the US – have made this case before: they and others argued in March in Nature for what they call “managed collapse.”

In the latest study, they look at the challenge in greater detail. And they warn that even if targeted geoengineering of individual glaciers worked, it would only do so if humans stopped tipping ever more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to fuel yet more global warming.

Nor do they argue that a submarine curtain wall to halt warming water across the front of the Thwaites glacier – up to 100 kms wide – is currently feasible. “But in the long run we need plans to deal with the committed climate changes that are already in the pipeline, one of which may be an ice sheet collapse.”

And one of these is the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica: another is the Jakobshaven Isbrae in Greenland. Both could be cases of what the scientists call marine ice sheet instability: as a glacier retreats from its grounding line, the ice lifts off the bedrock and begins to float.

If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet, and warmer ocean currents wash beneath it, then the ice starts to stretch and thin, and retreat further. At some point, it would become much easier for thawing ice to flow into the sea, and start what could become a runaway collapse. Engineers could devise a way of slowing or halting the process.

Huge impact

The scientists argue that even a rise of 0.6m to 1.2 metres by 2100 could cause up to $50 trillion in economic damage, and the resultant flooding could force up to 200 million to 500 million people out of their homes at least for a few days or weeks: around a million or so every year would never go back.

Climate scientists have been arguing about geoengineering solutions – the so-called technofix – to climate change for more than a decade. Global answers, such as blocking sunlight with stratospheric soot and sulphate aerosols, or whitening the polar ice to make it more reflective, remain contentious.

But the Cryosphere proposals are much more limited, and the immediate dangers of sea level rise are not contested. Ice sheet collapse in Antarctica, for instance, could raise sea levels by more than 3 metres and even by as much as 19 metres over the next two or three centuries.

The researchers’ calculations suggest that in theory an engineering solution that blocked even 50% of the warm water getting under a glacier could offer a 70% chance of delaying or stopping ice sheet collapse.

Left behind

Countries already spend on coastal protection: their solution would require international co-operation at the highest political level, and intensive scientific research.

“Managing sea level rise at the source has the advantage of benefiting the entire world, while a strategy that relies only on local coastal protection is more of an every-nation-for-itself approach that may leave many poor countries behind,” they write.

“Perhaps, after careful consideration, we may conclude that glacial geoengineering is unworkable and the right answer is to invest heavily in coastal protection and retreat inland where that is not practical or economical.

“However, we owe it to the 400 million people who live within 5m of sea level to at least consider the alternatives.” – Climate News Network

Frozen Arctic moves seawards in hectic melt

Once trapped in a Russian ice cap north of Siberia, the frozen Arctic is moving fast, racing in decades from metres to kilometres a year.

LONDON, 5 October, 2018 – Satellite images have revealed a dramatic change in Russia’s frozen Arctic. An ice cap that once crept almost imperceptibly across the barren rocks of October Revolution island, in the Kara Sea, is on the move.

All ice, even when permanently frozen to the bedrock, moves. From 1952 to 1985, the western edge of the Vavilov ice cap, 1,820 square kilometres in area and between 300 metres and 600 metres in thickness, shifted at about 12 metres a year. Between 1998 and 2011, it stepped up the pace to 75 metres a year. Between 2014 and 2015, the ice front had broken into tongues that moved at more than 1,000 metres a year.

And between 2015 and 2016 the leading edge had started racing into the Kara Sea at 5,000 metres a year. It is also thinning at the rate of a third of a metre a day, according to a new study in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

The high Arctic is the fastest-warming place on Earth, and researchers have for more than 30 years been measuring changes in the rate at which sea ice shrinks and Greenland glaciers flow.

Role as metaphor

“In a warming climate, glacier acceleration is becoming more and more common, but the rate of ice loss at Vavilov is extreme and unexpected,” said Michael Willis, a geologist at the University of California Boulder, who led the study by scientists from the US, UK and Russia.

Glaciers and icecaps such as Vavilov cover about 450,000 square kilometres of the planet’s surface and hold enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by 30 cms. They form on land in polar “deserts” in which the temperatures are below freezing and snow falls at no more than 25 cms a year.

In the Arctic summer the snow cover melts, and water trickles down through the ice; over the years, snowfall patterns shift and the ice cap shifts under gravitational tug. All glaciers flow, but so slowly that their pace has been incorporated into metaphor.

For the study authors, who used decades of satellite studies of the high Arctic to measure the change, the puzzle is one of geophysics: how could a fast-frozen mass of ice get to the stage where it can slide, as if lubricated, across a rocky surface above sea level?

“Glacier acceleration is becoming more and more common, but the rate of ice loss at Vavilov is extreme and unexpected”

“We’ve never seen anything like this before, this study has raised as many questions as it has answered,” said Dr Willis. “And we’re now working on modelling the whole situation to get a better handle on the physics involved.”

But for climate scientists concerned with the bigger picture, the study is another instance of potentially catastrophic climate change in the making. Once an ice cap starts to flow, the process is unlikely to stop.

And a second study in the same week from the other end of the globe shows that it doesn’t take much to start the ice flowing into the sea. It has confirmed that average global warming of no more than 2°C above historic levels, given long enough,  could melt much of the world’s largest ice sheet.

Planetary average temperatures have already risen by 1°C since the first industrial exploitation of coal, gas and oil only 200 years ago, and right now, although 195 nations vowed in Paris in 2015 to keep the rise to “well below” 2°C by 2100, the world seems headed for at least a 3°C rise later this century.

Future loss inevitable

British, Australian, New Zealand, Spanish and Japanese scientists report in Nature that they reconstructed the impact of change on the East Antarctic ice sheet during interglacials, those warm pauses during the last Ice Age.

For about 2,500 years, Antarctic air temperatures rose by about 2°C, the huge fastness of ice began to melt, and sea levels rose. The West Antarctic ice sheet, which has repeatedly shown signs of thawing, holds enough water to raise sea levels by up to 5 metres. The apparently stable East Antarctic sheet holds enough to lift global sea levels by 53 metres. During the interglacials of 400,000 years ago and 125,000 years ago, sea levels rose between 6 metres and 13 metres higher than they are today.

“What we have learned is that even modest warming of just two degrees, if sustained for a couple of thousand years, is enough to cause the East Antarctic ice sheet to retreat in some of its low-lying areas,” said David Wilson, of the UK’s Imperial College, who led the research.

“With current global temperatures already one degree higher than during pre-industrial times, future ice loss seems inevitable if we fail to reduce carbon emissions.” – Climate News Network

Once trapped in a Russian ice cap north of Siberia, the frozen Arctic is moving fast, racing in decades from metres to kilometres a year.

LONDON, 5 October, 2018 – Satellite images have revealed a dramatic change in Russia’s frozen Arctic. An ice cap that once crept almost imperceptibly across the barren rocks of October Revolution island, in the Kara Sea, is on the move.

All ice, even when permanently frozen to the bedrock, moves. From 1952 to 1985, the western edge of the Vavilov ice cap, 1,820 square kilometres in area and between 300 metres and 600 metres in thickness, shifted at about 12 metres a year. Between 1998 and 2011, it stepped up the pace to 75 metres a year. Between 2014 and 2015, the ice front had broken into tongues that moved at more than 1,000 metres a year.

And between 2015 and 2016 the leading edge had started racing into the Kara Sea at 5,000 metres a year. It is also thinning at the rate of a third of a metre a day, according to a new study in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

The high Arctic is the fastest-warming place on Earth, and researchers have for more than 30 years been measuring changes in the rate at which sea ice shrinks and Greenland glaciers flow.

Role as metaphor

“In a warming climate, glacier acceleration is becoming more and more common, but the rate of ice loss at Vavilov is extreme and unexpected,” said Michael Willis, a geologist at the University of California Boulder, who led the study by scientists from the US, UK and Russia.

Glaciers and icecaps such as Vavilov cover about 450,000 square kilometres of the planet’s surface and hold enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by 30 cms. They form on land in polar “deserts” in which the temperatures are below freezing and snow falls at no more than 25 cms a year.

In the Arctic summer the snow cover melts, and water trickles down through the ice; over the years, snowfall patterns shift and the ice cap shifts under gravitational tug. All glaciers flow, but so slowly that their pace has been incorporated into metaphor.

For the study authors, who used decades of satellite studies of the high Arctic to measure the change, the puzzle is one of geophysics: how could a fast-frozen mass of ice get to the stage where it can slide, as if lubricated, across a rocky surface above sea level?

“Glacier acceleration is becoming more and more common, but the rate of ice loss at Vavilov is extreme and unexpected”

“We’ve never seen anything like this before, this study has raised as many questions as it has answered,” said Dr Willis. “And we’re now working on modelling the whole situation to get a better handle on the physics involved.”

But for climate scientists concerned with the bigger picture, the study is another instance of potentially catastrophic climate change in the making. Once an ice cap starts to flow, the process is unlikely to stop.

And a second study in the same week from the other end of the globe shows that it doesn’t take much to start the ice flowing into the sea. It has confirmed that average global warming of no more than 2°C above historic levels, given long enough,  could melt much of the world’s largest ice sheet.

Planetary average temperatures have already risen by 1°C since the first industrial exploitation of coal, gas and oil only 200 years ago, and right now, although 195 nations vowed in Paris in 2015 to keep the rise to “well below” 2°C by 2100, the world seems headed for at least a 3°C rise later this century.

Future loss inevitable

British, Australian, New Zealand, Spanish and Japanese scientists report in Nature that they reconstructed the impact of change on the East Antarctic ice sheet during interglacials, those warm pauses during the last Ice Age.

For about 2,500 years, Antarctic air temperatures rose by about 2°C, the huge fastness of ice began to melt, and sea levels rose. The West Antarctic ice sheet, which has repeatedly shown signs of thawing, holds enough water to raise sea levels by up to 5 metres. The apparently stable East Antarctic sheet holds enough to lift global sea levels by 53 metres. During the interglacials of 400,000 years ago and 125,000 years ago, sea levels rose between 6 metres and 13 metres higher than they are today.

“What we have learned is that even modest warming of just two degrees, if sustained for a couple of thousand years, is enough to cause the East Antarctic ice sheet to retreat in some of its low-lying areas,” said David Wilson, of the UK’s Imperial College, who led the research.

“With current global temperatures already one degree higher than during pre-industrial times, future ice loss seems inevitable if we fail to reduce carbon emissions.” – Climate News Network

‘Eternal’ Swiss snow is melting faster

Scientists say stretches of “eternal” Swiss snow are melting faster than 20 years ago, with serious impacts for water supply and tourism.

LONDON, 21 September, 2018 – Parts of Europe’s alpine mountain chain are undergoing accelerating melting, as the “eternal” Swiss snow thaws ever faster, threatening both the skiing industry and the nation’s water supply.

Over a period of only 22 years, thousands of satellite images have provided irrefutable evidence that an extra 5,200 square kilometres of the country are now snow-free, compared with the decade 1995-2005.

Researchers from the University of Geneva and the United Nations Environment Programme have used data from four satellites which have been constantly photographing the Earth from space, compiling a record published by the Swiss Data Cube, which uses Earth observations to give a comprehensive  picture of the country’s snow cover and much else besides, including crops grown and forest cover.

It is the loss of snow cover that most disturbs the scientists. What they call “the eternal snow zone” still covered 27% of Swiss territory in the years from 1995 to 2005. Ten years later it had fallen to 23% – a loss of 2,100 sq km.

The eternal snow line marks the part of Switzerland above which the snow never used to melt in summer or winter. It is also defined as the area where any precipitation year-round has an 80-100% chance of being snow.

“We have stored the equivalent of 6,500 images covering 34 years, a feat that only an open data policy has made possible”

Other parts of the country, including the Swiss Plateau (about 30% of Switzerland’s area), the Rhone Valley, the Alps and the Jura mountains are also losing snow cover, adding up to the 5,200 sq km total. These areas, below the eternal snow line, have until now usually had lying snow in the winter.

The study was launched in 2016 on behalf of Switzerland’s Federal Office for the Environment. Knowing the extent of snow cover and its retreat is essential for developing public policies, the researchers say.

Beyond the economic issues linked to the threat to ski resorts – a familiar area of concern, heightened by this latest research, as many of them now face shortened seasons or outright abandonment – other problems such as flood risk and water supply are coming to the fore. Snow stores water in the winter for release in spring and summer, for both agriculture and drinking water.

Currently the increasing loss of ice from glaciers in the summer is making up for the missing snow, but previous work by scientists has shown that in the future, when glaciers disappear altogether, Switzerland could face a crisis.

The researchers have relied on the information available from the Data Cube to establish what is happening on the peaks. By superimposing repeated pictures of the same place over one another they have been able to observe small changes over time.

Wealth of data

The data was made freely available to researchers. One of them, Grégory Giuliani, said: “We have stored the equivalent of 6,500 images covering 34 years, a feat that only an open data policy has made possible. If we had had to acquire these images at market value, more than 6 million Swiss francs would have been invested.

“Knowing that each pixel of each image corresponds to the observation of a square of 10 by 10 meters, we have 110 billion observations today. It is inestimable wealth for the scientific community.”

Apart from snow cover scientists are worried about many other changes taking place in Switzerland because of climate change. They already know that glaciers are melting at record speeds and plants, birds and insects are heading further up the mountains, but there is much else to be gleaned from the new data base.

The Data Cube offers the possibility of studying vegetation, the evolution and rotation of agricultural areas, urbanisation and even water quality, as satellite images can be used to monitor three essential indicators in lakes and rivers: suspended particles, whether organic or mineral; chlorophyll content; and surface temperature.

The data are freely accessible, not only to scientists worldwide but also to the public, making it easy to compare data for specific areas of the territory at different times. “Our ambition is that everyone should be able to navigate freely in Swiss territory to understand its evolution”, said Grégory Giuliani. – Climate News Network

Scientists say stretches of “eternal” Swiss snow are melting faster than 20 years ago, with serious impacts for water supply and tourism.

LONDON, 21 September, 2018 – Parts of Europe’s alpine mountain chain are undergoing accelerating melting, as the “eternal” Swiss snow thaws ever faster, threatening both the skiing industry and the nation’s water supply.

Over a period of only 22 years, thousands of satellite images have provided irrefutable evidence that an extra 5,200 square kilometres of the country are now snow-free, compared with the decade 1995-2005.

Researchers from the University of Geneva and the United Nations Environment Programme have used data from four satellites which have been constantly photographing the Earth from space, compiling a record published by the Swiss Data Cube, which uses Earth observations to give a comprehensive  picture of the country’s snow cover and much else besides, including crops grown and forest cover.

It is the loss of snow cover that most disturbs the scientists. What they call “the eternal snow zone” still covered 27% of Swiss territory in the years from 1995 to 2005. Ten years later it had fallen to 23% – a loss of 2,100 sq km.

The eternal snow line marks the part of Switzerland above which the snow never used to melt in summer or winter. It is also defined as the area where any precipitation year-round has an 80-100% chance of being snow.

“We have stored the equivalent of 6,500 images covering 34 years, a feat that only an open data policy has made possible”

Other parts of the country, including the Swiss Plateau (about 30% of Switzerland’s area), the Rhone Valley, the Alps and the Jura mountains are also losing snow cover, adding up to the 5,200 sq km total. These areas, below the eternal snow line, have until now usually had lying snow in the winter.

The study was launched in 2016 on behalf of Switzerland’s Federal Office for the Environment. Knowing the extent of snow cover and its retreat is essential for developing public policies, the researchers say.

Beyond the economic issues linked to the threat to ski resorts – a familiar area of concern, heightened by this latest research, as many of them now face shortened seasons or outright abandonment – other problems such as flood risk and water supply are coming to the fore. Snow stores water in the winter for release in spring and summer, for both agriculture and drinking water.

Currently the increasing loss of ice from glaciers in the summer is making up for the missing snow, but previous work by scientists has shown that in the future, when glaciers disappear altogether, Switzerland could face a crisis.

The researchers have relied on the information available from the Data Cube to establish what is happening on the peaks. By superimposing repeated pictures of the same place over one another they have been able to observe small changes over time.

Wealth of data

The data was made freely available to researchers. One of them, Grégory Giuliani, said: “We have stored the equivalent of 6,500 images covering 34 years, a feat that only an open data policy has made possible. If we had had to acquire these images at market value, more than 6 million Swiss francs would have been invested.

“Knowing that each pixel of each image corresponds to the observation of a square of 10 by 10 meters, we have 110 billion observations today. It is inestimable wealth for the scientific community.”

Apart from snow cover scientists are worried about many other changes taking place in Switzerland because of climate change. They already know that glaciers are melting at record speeds and plants, birds and insects are heading further up the mountains, but there is much else to be gleaned from the new data base.

The Data Cube offers the possibility of studying vegetation, the evolution and rotation of agricultural areas, urbanisation and even water quality, as satellite images can be used to monitor three essential indicators in lakes and rivers: suspended particles, whether organic or mineral; chlorophyll content; and surface temperature.

The data are freely accessible, not only to scientists worldwide but also to the public, making it easy to compare data for specific areas of the territory at different times. “Our ambition is that everyone should be able to navigate freely in Swiss territory to understand its evolution”, said Grégory Giuliani. – Climate News Network

Nature may explain North Atlantic circulation

Ocean circulation distributes the planet’s heat. If the North Atlantic circulation slows, is it because of global warming, or a natural cycle?

LONDON, 26 July, 2018 – The world can breathe again. Europe can relax: the glaciers will not return. The North Atlantic circulation may resume its former pace and the Gulf Stream slowdown could be coming to an end.

But that may not be entirely good news. Global warming could also be about to accelerate, according to new research into one of oceanography’s most enigmatic phenomena, the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

New studies of all the data so far by an ocean scientist and a mathematician say that what affects North Atlantic circulation may not be driven by man-made climate change. The ocean may be responding to a very long-term natural climate cycle.

At the heart of the puzzle is a simple fact. The flow of warm water from the tropical Atlantic right up to the coast of northern Norway has a dramatic impact on western Europe’s climate. This means that the United Kingdom, France, and other nations are conspicuously warmer than they might be if latitude was the only factor.

“We do not know if it is periodic, but based on the surface phenomena we think it’s very likely it is episodic”

A former UK chief scientist once calculated that the Gulf Stream contributed 27,000 times the warmth generated by all the UK’s power stations. But theorists argued that as the Arctic region warmed, the rate of flow could diminish, and paradoxically throw Europe into a new little Ice Age. A 2004 Hollywood disaster movie called The Day After Tomorrow followed this logic, with Britain frozen and glaciers cascading south into the US.

In fact, no such calamitous and sudden return of the intense and lethal cold could happen, but researchers have since then consistently observed a pattern of slowing in the North Atlantic circulation, linked such slowdowns to global warming
driven by profligate use of fossil fuels that enrich the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and repeatedly warned that the consequences could be costly or even devastating.

But a new study of the data available exposes other possibilities. In the first place, climate scientists have direct measurements of the circulation strength only from 2004, and the decline measured since then has been 10 times more than anyone expected. Perhaps the slowdown could be just part of a regular, rhythmic cycle that happens independently of anything humans have done to trigger global warming, researchers say in the journal Nature.

“Many have focused on the fact that it’s declining very rapidly, and that if the trend continues it will go past a tipping point, bringing a catastrophe such as an ice age,” said Ka-Kit Tung, a mathematician at the University of Washington in the US.

Already over

“It turns out that none of that is going to happen in the near future. The fast response may instead be part of a natural cycle and there are signs that the decline is already ending.”

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation takes warm surface water northward. The dense salty water sinks into the Labrador and Nordic Seas and returns at depth all the way to the Southern Ocean, to rise again. The puzzle is what happens next.

As the current sinks in the far north, it carries heat away from the surface. But the same transport of heat causes the northern glaciers to recede, and melt, diluting the saline water and making it less likely to sink. So the circulation slows.

The reasoning that follows is that, in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, the ice melt slows, the fresh meltwater sources begin to dry up and the heavier, saltier water plunges more urgently, and the whole circulation speeds up again.

Disagreement

And if this happens in a natural cycle – and not all climate scientists and oceanographers will agree – it is one that lasts for many decades: 60 to 70 years. But oceanographers don’t have the more than 60 to 70 years of measurements needed to confirm this pattern.

“We have about one cycle of observations at depth, so we do not know if it is periodic, but based on the surface phenomena we think it’s very likely it is episodic,” said Professor Tung.

“The good news is that the indicators show that this slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation is ending, and so we shouldn’t be alarmed that this current will collapse any time soon.

“The bad news is that surface temperatures are likely to start rising more quickly in the coming decades.” – Climate News Network

Ocean circulation distributes the planet’s heat. If the North Atlantic circulation slows, is it because of global warming, or a natural cycle?

LONDON, 26 July, 2018 – The world can breathe again. Europe can relax: the glaciers will not return. The North Atlantic circulation may resume its former pace and the Gulf Stream slowdown could be coming to an end.

But that may not be entirely good news. Global warming could also be about to accelerate, according to new research into one of oceanography’s most enigmatic phenomena, the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

New studies of all the data so far by an ocean scientist and a mathematician say that what affects North Atlantic circulation may not be driven by man-made climate change. The ocean may be responding to a very long-term natural climate cycle.

At the heart of the puzzle is a simple fact. The flow of warm water from the tropical Atlantic right up to the coast of northern Norway has a dramatic impact on western Europe’s climate. This means that the United Kingdom, France, and other nations are conspicuously warmer than they might be if latitude was the only factor.

“We do not know if it is periodic, but based on the surface phenomena we think it’s very likely it is episodic”

A former UK chief scientist once calculated that the Gulf Stream contributed 27,000 times the warmth generated by all the UK’s power stations. But theorists argued that as the Arctic region warmed, the rate of flow could diminish, and paradoxically throw Europe into a new little Ice Age. A 2004 Hollywood disaster movie called The Day After Tomorrow followed this logic, with Britain frozen and glaciers cascading south into the US.

In fact, no such calamitous and sudden return of the intense and lethal cold could happen, but researchers have since then consistently observed a pattern of slowing in the North Atlantic circulation, linked such slowdowns to global warming
driven by profligate use of fossil fuels that enrich the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and repeatedly warned that the consequences could be costly or even devastating.

But a new study of the data available exposes other possibilities. In the first place, climate scientists have direct measurements of the circulation strength only from 2004, and the decline measured since then has been 10 times more than anyone expected. Perhaps the slowdown could be just part of a regular, rhythmic cycle that happens independently of anything humans have done to trigger global warming, researchers say in the journal Nature.

“Many have focused on the fact that it’s declining very rapidly, and that if the trend continues it will go past a tipping point, bringing a catastrophe such as an ice age,” said Ka-Kit Tung, a mathematician at the University of Washington in the US.

Already over

“It turns out that none of that is going to happen in the near future. The fast response may instead be part of a natural cycle and there are signs that the decline is already ending.”

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation takes warm surface water northward. The dense salty water sinks into the Labrador and Nordic Seas and returns at depth all the way to the Southern Ocean, to rise again. The puzzle is what happens next.

As the current sinks in the far north, it carries heat away from the surface. But the same transport of heat causes the northern glaciers to recede, and melt, diluting the saline water and making it less likely to sink. So the circulation slows.

The reasoning that follows is that, in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, the ice melt slows, the fresh meltwater sources begin to dry up and the heavier, saltier water plunges more urgently, and the whole circulation speeds up again.

Disagreement

And if this happens in a natural cycle – and not all climate scientists and oceanographers will agree – it is one that lasts for many decades: 60 to 70 years. But oceanographers don’t have the more than 60 to 70 years of measurements needed to confirm this pattern.

“We have about one cycle of observations at depth, so we do not know if it is periodic, but based on the surface phenomena we think it’s very likely it is episodic,” said Professor Tung.

“The good news is that the indicators show that this slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation is ending, and so we shouldn’t be alarmed that this current will collapse any time soon.

“The bad news is that surface temperatures are likely to start rising more quickly in the coming decades.” – Climate News Network