Tag Archives: Sweden

Stockholm heat toll 'doubled in 30 years'

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Swedish researchers think the changing climate was responsible for doubling the number of heat-related deaths in the capital, Stockholm, in the 30 years from 1980.

LONDON, 23 October – It’s a small sample – just one city, during one 30-year interval – but it could have significance everywhere: deaths from extreme heat doubled in Stockholm, Sweden, between 1980 and 2009 and the agent behind this grim reckoning looks very much like global warming.

Daniel Oudin Åström of Umeå University, Sweden, and colleagues, report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at recent mortality in Stockholm, and then compared the records of deaths with those from 1900-1929.  The period 1980-2009 was marked by northern hemisphere summers with unprecedented extremes of heat – in 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012 – and in 2010, temperatures in Europe exceeded all 20th and 21st century records.

Stockholm is a city more adapted to cold than heat, more associated with long bleak winters than stifling summers. Sweden is a society with a long history of good record-keeping, but Stockholm in particular is also a city of demographic change and immigration. So the population at risk from extremes of heat in this century cannot be matched very easily with that of a century ago, but Åström and his fellow researchers decided it was worth a try.

They calculated the weeks in which people would have been most at risk – from cold in winter as well as heat in summer – and considered the age groups most likely to suffer and collapse from heat exhaustion and heat stroke or from hypothermia and other winter hazards. They counted 220 extremes of cold at the beginning of the 20th century, and 251 such extremes in the last 30 years. Then they compared the pattern of mortality over the two timespans, and concluded that the extra 31 cold spells accounted for 75 premature deaths.

Then they looked at the high end of the thermometer, and saw a much more dramatic change. In the early 20th century, there were 220 very hot spells. In the most recent period, there were 381 extremes of heat. On this basis, an additional 288 people who died in Stockholm from the effects of heat did so with a 95% probability that climate change was implicated.

Determining the cause

Comparisons like these are very difficult to make. Human life expectancy has increased, and so has overall health care, sanitation and education.  Cities have expanded dramatically in the last 100 years. Motor traffic, street lighting, central heating and air conditioning have all helped make air temperatures in cities so much higher than in the surrounding countryside, where comparative meteorological measurements are normally made.

The Swedish scientists took such changes into account: without such adjustments, their extra death toll would have been 447.  They concluded that heat-related deaths in the last 30 years were twice those to be expected in the period before global warming.

Despite overall warming, and higher than average winter temperatures overall, the frequency of extremes of cold had increased during the same period, with a smaller excess of deaths. And the researchers confirm that they found no evidence that humans had physiologically adapted to a warmer world in the years since global temperatures began to rise.

Scientists make such calculations and then publish them, inviting other researchers to pour cold water on them. In fact, the cold water is coming anyway, according to Andrea Toreti of Justus Liebig University Giessen in Germany and colleagues.

They report in Geophysical Research Letters that as the atmosphere warms, so the air will be able to hold more water vapour, with all the more to fall on rainy days. The researchers took eight high resolution global general circulation models and tried to calculate rainfall extremes for the remainder of the century.

To do that, they took reliable data from the past, and projected the pattern of extremes to 2099. They also divided their projections into three time periods: from 1966 to 2005; from 2020 to 2059; and from 2060 to 2099.

The not very surprising conclusion is that with increasing temperatures, and with more moisture in the air, there will be more rain. But the scientists were looking for extreme events, and conclude that as the century wears on, extreme torrential downpours of the kind that once happened only every 50 years will start to happen every 20 years or so.

In the high latitude northern hemisphere (and that includes Stockholm) the strongest change will be in autumn and spring, where the daily extreme precipitation is expected to increase by 45% and 39% respectively. – Climate News Network

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Swedish researchers think the changing climate was responsible for doubling the number of heat-related deaths in the capital, Stockholm, in the 30 years from 1980.

LONDON, 23 October – It’s a small sample – just one city, during one 30-year interval – but it could have significance everywhere: deaths from extreme heat doubled in Stockholm, Sweden, between 1980 and 2009 and the agent behind this grim reckoning looks very much like global warming.

Daniel Oudin Åström of Umeå University, Sweden, and colleagues, report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at recent mortality in Stockholm, and then compared the records of deaths with those from 1900-1929.  The period 1980-2009 was marked by northern hemisphere summers with unprecedented extremes of heat – in 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012 – and in 2010, temperatures in Europe exceeded all 20th and 21st century records.

Stockholm is a city more adapted to cold than heat, more associated with long bleak winters than stifling summers. Sweden is a society with a long history of good record-keeping, but Stockholm in particular is also a city of demographic change and immigration. So the population at risk from extremes of heat in this century cannot be matched very easily with that of a century ago, but Åström and his fellow researchers decided it was worth a try.

They calculated the weeks in which people would have been most at risk – from cold in winter as well as heat in summer – and considered the age groups most likely to suffer and collapse from heat exhaustion and heat stroke or from hypothermia and other winter hazards. They counted 220 extremes of cold at the beginning of the 20th century, and 251 such extremes in the last 30 years. Then they compared the pattern of mortality over the two timespans, and concluded that the extra 31 cold spells accounted for 75 premature deaths.

Then they looked at the high end of the thermometer, and saw a much more dramatic change. In the early 20th century, there were 220 very hot spells. In the most recent period, there were 381 extremes of heat. On this basis, an additional 288 people who died in Stockholm from the effects of heat did so with a 95% probability that climate change was implicated.

Determining the cause

Comparisons like these are very difficult to make. Human life expectancy has increased, and so has overall health care, sanitation and education.  Cities have expanded dramatically in the last 100 years. Motor traffic, street lighting, central heating and air conditioning have all helped make air temperatures in cities so much higher than in the surrounding countryside, where comparative meteorological measurements are normally made.

The Swedish scientists took such changes into account: without such adjustments, their extra death toll would have been 447.  They concluded that heat-related deaths in the last 30 years were twice those to be expected in the period before global warming.

Despite overall warming, and higher than average winter temperatures overall, the frequency of extremes of cold had increased during the same period, with a smaller excess of deaths. And the researchers confirm that they found no evidence that humans had physiologically adapted to a warmer world in the years since global temperatures began to rise.

Scientists make such calculations and then publish them, inviting other researchers to pour cold water on them. In fact, the cold water is coming anyway, according to Andrea Toreti of Justus Liebig University Giessen in Germany and colleagues.

They report in Geophysical Research Letters that as the atmosphere warms, so the air will be able to hold more water vapour, with all the more to fall on rainy days. The researchers took eight high resolution global general circulation models and tried to calculate rainfall extremes for the remainder of the century.

To do that, they took reliable data from the past, and projected the pattern of extremes to 2099. They also divided their projections into three time periods: from 1966 to 2005; from 2020 to 2059; and from 2060 to 2099.

The not very surprising conclusion is that with increasing temperatures, and with more moisture in the air, there will be more rain. But the scientists were looking for extreme events, and conclude that as the century wears on, extreme torrential downpours of the kind that once happened only every 50 years will start to happen every 20 years or so.

In the high latitude northern hemisphere (and that includes Stockholm) the strongest change will be in autumn and spring, where the daily extreme precipitation is expected to increase by 45% and 39% respectively. – Climate News Network

Stockholm heat toll ‘doubled in 30 years’

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Swedish researchers think the changing climate was responsible for doubling the number of heat-related deaths in the capital, Stockholm, in the 30 years from 1980. LONDON, 23 October – It’s a small sample – just one city, during one 30-year interval – but it could have significance everywhere: deaths from extreme heat doubled in Stockholm, Sweden, between 1980 and 2009 and the agent behind this grim reckoning looks very much like global warming. Daniel Oudin Åström of Umeå University, Sweden, and colleagues, report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at recent mortality in Stockholm, and then compared the records of deaths with those from 1900-1929.  The period 1980-2009 was marked by northern hemisphere summers with unprecedented extremes of heat – in 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012 – and in 2010, temperatures in Europe exceeded all 20th and 21st century records. Stockholm is a city more adapted to cold than heat, more associated with long bleak winters than stifling summers. Sweden is a society with a long history of good record-keeping, but Stockholm in particular is also a city of demographic change and immigration. So the population at risk from extremes of heat in this century cannot be matched very easily with that of a century ago, but Åström and his fellow researchers decided it was worth a try. They calculated the weeks in which people would have been most at risk – from cold in winter as well as heat in summer – and considered the age groups most likely to suffer and collapse from heat exhaustion and heat stroke or from hypothermia and other winter hazards. They counted 220 extremes of cold at the beginning of the 20th century, and 251 such extremes in the last 30 years. Then they compared the pattern of mortality over the two timespans, and concluded that the extra 31 cold spells accounted for 75 premature deaths. Then they looked at the high end of the thermometer, and saw a much more dramatic change. In the early 20th century, there were 220 very hot spells. In the most recent period, there were 381 extremes of heat. On this basis, an additional 288 people who died in Stockholm from the effects of heat did so with a 95% probability that climate change was implicated.

Determining the cause

Comparisons like these are very difficult to make. Human life expectancy has increased, and so has overall health care, sanitation and education.  Cities have expanded dramatically in the last 100 years. Motor traffic, street lighting, central heating and air conditioning have all helped make air temperatures in cities so much higher than in the surrounding countryside, where comparative meteorological measurements are normally made. The Swedish scientists took such changes into account: without such adjustments, their extra death toll would have been 447.  They concluded that heat-related deaths in the last 30 years were twice those to be expected in the period before global warming. Despite overall warming, and higher than average winter temperatures overall, the frequency of extremes of cold had increased during the same period, with a smaller excess of deaths. And the researchers confirm that they found no evidence that humans had physiologically adapted to a warmer world in the years since global temperatures began to rise. Scientists make such calculations and then publish them, inviting other researchers to pour cold water on them. In fact, the cold water is coming anyway, according to Andrea Toreti of Justus Liebig University Giessen in Germany and colleagues. They report in Geophysical Research Letters that as the atmosphere warms, so the air will be able to hold more water vapour, with all the more to fall on rainy days. The researchers took eight high resolution global general circulation models and tried to calculate rainfall extremes for the remainder of the century. To do that, they took reliable data from the past, and projected the pattern of extremes to 2099. They also divided their projections into three time periods: from 1966 to 2005; from 2020 to 2059; and from 2060 to 2099. The not very surprising conclusion is that with increasing temperatures, and with more moisture in the air, there will be more rain. But the scientists were looking for extreme events, and conclude that as the century wears on, extreme torrential downpours of the kind that once happened only every 50 years will start to happen every 20 years or so. In the high latitude northern hemisphere (and that includes Stockholm) the strongest change will be in autumn and spring, where the daily extreme precipitation is expected to increase by 45% and 39% respectively. – Climate News Network

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Swedish researchers think the changing climate was responsible for doubling the number of heat-related deaths in the capital, Stockholm, in the 30 years from 1980. LONDON, 23 October – It’s a small sample – just one city, during one 30-year interval – but it could have significance everywhere: deaths from extreme heat doubled in Stockholm, Sweden, between 1980 and 2009 and the agent behind this grim reckoning looks very much like global warming. Daniel Oudin Åström of Umeå University, Sweden, and colleagues, report in Nature Climate Change that they looked at recent mortality in Stockholm, and then compared the records of deaths with those from 1900-1929.  The period 1980-2009 was marked by northern hemisphere summers with unprecedented extremes of heat – in 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2012 – and in 2010, temperatures in Europe exceeded all 20th and 21st century records. Stockholm is a city more adapted to cold than heat, more associated with long bleak winters than stifling summers. Sweden is a society with a long history of good record-keeping, but Stockholm in particular is also a city of demographic change and immigration. So the population at risk from extremes of heat in this century cannot be matched very easily with that of a century ago, but Åström and his fellow researchers decided it was worth a try. They calculated the weeks in which people would have been most at risk – from cold in winter as well as heat in summer – and considered the age groups most likely to suffer and collapse from heat exhaustion and heat stroke or from hypothermia and other winter hazards. They counted 220 extremes of cold at the beginning of the 20th century, and 251 such extremes in the last 30 years. Then they compared the pattern of mortality over the two timespans, and concluded that the extra 31 cold spells accounted for 75 premature deaths. Then they looked at the high end of the thermometer, and saw a much more dramatic change. In the early 20th century, there were 220 very hot spells. In the most recent period, there were 381 extremes of heat. On this basis, an additional 288 people who died in Stockholm from the effects of heat did so with a 95% probability that climate change was implicated.

Determining the cause

Comparisons like these are very difficult to make. Human life expectancy has increased, and so has overall health care, sanitation and education.  Cities have expanded dramatically in the last 100 years. Motor traffic, street lighting, central heating and air conditioning have all helped make air temperatures in cities so much higher than in the surrounding countryside, where comparative meteorological measurements are normally made. The Swedish scientists took such changes into account: without such adjustments, their extra death toll would have been 447.  They concluded that heat-related deaths in the last 30 years were twice those to be expected in the period before global warming. Despite overall warming, and higher than average winter temperatures overall, the frequency of extremes of cold had increased during the same period, with a smaller excess of deaths. And the researchers confirm that they found no evidence that humans had physiologically adapted to a warmer world in the years since global temperatures began to rise. Scientists make such calculations and then publish them, inviting other researchers to pour cold water on them. In fact, the cold water is coming anyway, according to Andrea Toreti of Justus Liebig University Giessen in Germany and colleagues. They report in Geophysical Research Letters that as the atmosphere warms, so the air will be able to hold more water vapour, with all the more to fall on rainy days. The researchers took eight high resolution global general circulation models and tried to calculate rainfall extremes for the remainder of the century. To do that, they took reliable data from the past, and projected the pattern of extremes to 2099. They also divided their projections into three time periods: from 1966 to 2005; from 2020 to 2059; and from 2060 to 2099. The not very surprising conclusion is that with increasing temperatures, and with more moisture in the air, there will be more rain. But the scientists were looking for extreme events, and conclude that as the century wears on, extreme torrential downpours of the kind that once happened only every 50 years will start to happen every 20 years or so. In the high latitude northern hemisphere (and that includes Stockholm) the strongest change will be in autumn and spring, where the daily extreme precipitation is expected to increase by 45% and 39% respectively. – Climate News Network

Parts of Europe heating faster than global average

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Climate change hits different regions in different ways and, as Europe’s climate warms, some areas are already having to adapt.  New crops are being planted and there’s a call for buildings that don’t overheat in warm weather. LONDON, 12 September – Temperatures in some parts of Europe have already increased by more than 2C in the last 60 years with changes in local climate allowing new crops to be grown. An example is the new wine growing area in southern England, which this year is celebrating its best ever grape harvest. Hundreds of acres of new vineyards are being planted to take advantage of the changing climate. Many parts of Europe are experiencing more hotter days in the summer and fewer very cold nights in winter. Overall the increase is four times greater than the global average over the 60 year period. Researchers at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, in collaboration with the University of Warwick, show that not all regions are warming at the same pace. The results of their research, which appear in a study in the journal, Environmental Research Letters, indicate that the hottest 5% of days in summer have warmed fastest in a band from southern England and northern France to Denmark. In eastern Spain and central Italy there has been a general warming in all seasons. In some areas, Norway and Sweden for example, the changes have been much smaller in summer and in some cases there have been no measurable differences. However nights in the depths of winter have been getting warmer – by more than 2C in both countries. Professor Sandra Chapman, one of the researchers, said: “It is common to discuss climate change in terms of changes in global average temperatures but these can be far from people’s perceptions of climate change. The results in this paper begin to provide a picture of how local climate has been changing across Europe. It is a picture which is closer to that experienced by individuals.” Among other results the study notes changes in the frequency of nights that fall below freezing in winter, and days which rise above 28C in summer. These, says the study, are two thresholds that are important for many impacts such as the availability of snow in ski resorts, building design, and labour productivity. Dr. David Stainforth, the lead author of the report, said: “Climate is fundamentally the distributions of weather. Our results illustrate that the international goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2°C would involve far greater changes for some places and for some aspects of climate, and therefore for particular individuals, communities and industries. “Changes in local climate pose challenges for decision makers across society not just when preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of today. “We need to design buildings so that they don’t overheat, decide which are the best crops to plant, and even plan for variations in large scale productivity. These would all benefit from knowledge of how the climate distribution has changed at particular locations. This work begins to provide such information.” The World Meteorological Organisation and many national organisations, such as the UK Met Office, are investing substantially in the provision of information for governments and businesses to help them to adapt to climate change. The study shows that even over relatively small areas the differences can be quite marked. For example, in the north east of England the number of night frosts in winter has gone down by more than 10%, a greater drop than elsewhere in the country. – Climate News Network

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Climate change hits different regions in different ways and, as Europe’s climate warms, some areas are already having to adapt.  New crops are being planted and there’s a call for buildings that don’t overheat in warm weather. LONDON, 12 September – Temperatures in some parts of Europe have already increased by more than 2C in the last 60 years with changes in local climate allowing new crops to be grown. An example is the new wine growing area in southern England, which this year is celebrating its best ever grape harvest. Hundreds of acres of new vineyards are being planted to take advantage of the changing climate. Many parts of Europe are experiencing more hotter days in the summer and fewer very cold nights in winter. Overall the increase is four times greater than the global average over the 60 year period. Researchers at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, in collaboration with the University of Warwick, show that not all regions are warming at the same pace. The results of their research, which appear in a study in the journal, Environmental Research Letters, indicate that the hottest 5% of days in summer have warmed fastest in a band from southern England and northern France to Denmark. In eastern Spain and central Italy there has been a general warming in all seasons. In some areas, Norway and Sweden for example, the changes have been much smaller in summer and in some cases there have been no measurable differences. However nights in the depths of winter have been getting warmer – by more than 2C in both countries. Professor Sandra Chapman, one of the researchers, said: “It is common to discuss climate change in terms of changes in global average temperatures but these can be far from people’s perceptions of climate change. The results in this paper begin to provide a picture of how local climate has been changing across Europe. It is a picture which is closer to that experienced by individuals.” Among other results the study notes changes in the frequency of nights that fall below freezing in winter, and days which rise above 28C in summer. These, says the study, are two thresholds that are important for many impacts such as the availability of snow in ski resorts, building design, and labour productivity. Dr. David Stainforth, the lead author of the report, said: “Climate is fundamentally the distributions of weather. Our results illustrate that the international goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2°C would involve far greater changes for some places and for some aspects of climate, and therefore for particular individuals, communities and industries. “Changes in local climate pose challenges for decision makers across society not just when preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of today. “We need to design buildings so that they don’t overheat, decide which are the best crops to plant, and even plan for variations in large scale productivity. These would all benefit from knowledge of how the climate distribution has changed at particular locations. This work begins to provide such information.” The World Meteorological Organisation and many national organisations, such as the UK Met Office, are investing substantially in the provision of information for governments and businesses to help them to adapt to climate change. The study shows that even over relatively small areas the differences can be quite marked. For example, in the north east of England the number of night frosts in winter has gone down by more than 10%, a greater drop than elsewhere in the country. – Climate News Network